TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ NYM

Neutral air · 1.01×

KC @ NYM

Citi Field · 1:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

1:10p

+10 ↑

2:10p

+11 ↑

3:10p

+11 ↑

4:10p

+10 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +11

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 24 · vs Manaea ⟷ Juan Soto conv 27 · vs Wacha → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 92

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +475 C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Collins — D ●○○○○

3 Lane Thomas +425 D ●○○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 63

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto +235 C+ ●●●●○

2 Mark Vientos — D ●●●○○

3 Carson Benge +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Wacha Edge +235 0.270 · 92.8 · 10.2% 23.1% 31.1% F B O C+ 63

· KC Carter Jensen vs Manaea +475 0.188 · 90.6 · 8.2% 27.3% 20.9% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Manaea +370 0.194 · 93.7 · 10.7% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Mark Vientos vs Wacha — 0.184 · 89.5 · 8.5% 16.7% 19.9% F B O D 49

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Wacha Edge +525 0.142 · 89.6 · 7.6% 15.4% 8.7% F B O D 43

· NYM Luis Torrens vs Wacha — 0.101 · 87.8 · 5.4% 12.5% 7.7% F B O D 36

· KC Isaac Collins vs Manaea Edge — 0.109 · 89.0 · 6.6% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Manaea Edge +425 0.142 · 88.4 · 6.5% 8.3% 8.2% F B O D 41

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Wacha Edge +625 0.155 · — · 7.5% 0.0% 16.3% F B O D 39

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Wacha +330 0.171 · 90.4 · 10.8% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 44

· KC Michael Massey vs Manaea +575 0.168 · 90.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· KC Salvador Perez vs Manaea Edge +305 0.156 · 89.0 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Wacha +475 0.124 · 90.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 39

· NYM Brett Baty vs Wacha Edge +525 0.087 · 89.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 64.1% ← leak BRK 31.8% OFF 4.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Carter Jensen L

10.1% 8.0% 8.8% 9.1% C 52 +475

Jac Caglianone L

15.6% 16.4% 10.8% 15.0% C 51 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Massey L

8.5% 5.4% 3.0% 6.8% D 42 +575

100

Lane Thomas R Edge

6.3% 0.0% 5.9% 5.0% D 41 +425

103

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.9% 6.4% 11.4% 10.5% D 40 +305

130

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.5% 8.3% 0.0% 5.8% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.1% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.1% ← leak OFF 22.8% BRK 19.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.0% 5.4% 12.5% 14.3% C+ 63 +235

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Mark Vientos R

10.2% 8.3% 12.5% 10.4% D 49 —

Francisco Alvarez R

16.9% 17.6% 14.5% 16.1% D 44 +330

Carson Benge L Edge

7.8% 7.5% 9.0% 8.0% D 43 +525

110

A.J. Ewing L Edge

10.3% 0.0% 8.3% 7.9% D 39 +625

115

Bo Bichette R

5.1% 0.0% 12.3% 6.9% D 39 +475

141

Luis Torrens R

4.4% 0.0% 5.3% 4.0% D 36 —

147

Brett Baty L Edge

7.1% 2.9% 11.9% 7.4% D 35 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.1% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Soto Vientos

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Juan Soto +235 · 63

Carter Jensen +475 · 52

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 6 mph out 71°F open

+11

↑

14 mph · slight_out

80°F

1:10p · peak

+10

↑

15 mph · slight_out

82°F

2:10p

+11

↑

13 mph · slight_out

82°F

3:10p

+11

↑

11 mph · out

82°F

4:10p

+10

↑

9 mph · out

82°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 71°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen 52 C +475 WARM 35 0.188 90.6 8.2% 12.5%vs LHP 393 15.9% 27.3% 20.9% 26

2 Jac Caglianone 51 C +370 COOL 44 0.194 93.7 10.7% 31.2%vs LHP 418 12.3% 0.0% 15.9% 28

3 Michael Massey 42 D +575 · 92 0.168 90.6 7.3% 16.7%vs LHP 398 7.0% 0.0% 11.7% 22

4 Lane Thomas 41 D +425 HOT 100 0.142 88.4 6.5% 10.5%vs LHP 412 13.0% 8.3% 8.2% 28

5 Salvador Perez 40 D +305 · 103 0.156 89.0 8.4% 17.9%vs LHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 25

6 Isaac Collins 37 D — WARM 130 0.109 89.0 6.6% 11.1%vs LHP 390 5.3% 10.0% 7.6% 23

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 63 C+ +235 COOL 8 0.270 92.8 10.2% 33.3%vs RHP 399 20.8% 23.1% 31.1% 35

2 Mark Vientos 49 D — · 51 0.184 89.5 8.5% 17.6%vs RHP 409 13.8% 16.7% 19.9% 12

3 Francisco Alvarez 44 D +330 · 79 0.171 90.4 10.8% 23.3%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 23

4 Carson Benge 43 D +525 COOL 88 0.142 89.6 7.6% 14.5%vs RHP 399 10.3% 15.4% 8.7% 42

5 A.J. Ewing 39 D +625 WARM 110 0.155 — 7.5% 16.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 31

6 Bo Bichette 39 D +475 COOL 115 0.124 90.2 7.0% 10.7%vs RHP 385 9.9% 0.0% 7.6% 39

7 Luis Torrens 36 D — WARM 141 0.101 87.8 5.4% 7.1%vs RHP 394 6.1% 12.5% 7.7% 19

8 Brett Baty 35 D +525 WARM 147 0.087 89.3 7.7% 7.3%vs RHP 415 3.5% 0.0% 7.2% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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