TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.88×

AZ @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 2 mph out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-4 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -2

Best of game Ketel Marte conv 28 · vs Canning ⟷ Manny Machado conv 28 · vs Kelly → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Griffin Canning RHP · SD

leak 99

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ketel Marte +330 C ●●●●○

2 Nolan Arenado +525 D ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +750 D ●●○○○

FADE Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 95

2.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Gavin Sheets +390 C ●●○○○

3 Jackson Merrill +370 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 10.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Kelly +390 0.212 · 90.0 · 12.5% 30.8% 25.7% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Canning Edge +330 0.216 · 91.7 · 10.5% 30.8% 25.5% F B O C 55

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Kelly Edge +390 0.220 · 88.7 · 10.9% 9.1% 20.2% F B O C 53

· SD Ty France COOL vs Kelly +625 0.203 · 91.1 · 12.4% 8.3% 14.9% F B O C 52

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Canning Edge +350 0.234 · 91.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Canning +525 0.165 · 85.1 · 7.8% 16.7% 11.4% F B O D 42

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Kelly Edge +370 0.138 · 89.6 · 12.0% 15.4% 10.9% F B O D 47

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Canning Edge +750 0.117 · 87.2 · 5.7% 15.4% 9.3% F B O D 34

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Canning Edge — 0.152 · 87.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Kelly — 0.146 · 88.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Kelly +575 0.105 · 88.1 · 9.3% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 38

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Canning +700 0.165 · 89.3 · 8.6% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.7% ← leak BRK 33.9% OFF 23.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.9% 8.0% 4.5% 11.5% C 55 +330

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.5% 14.5% 6.4% 11.4% C 52 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Nolan Arenado R

9.7% 1.3% 0.0% 6.0% D 42 +525

106

Gabriel Moreno R

7.5% 9.8% 12.5% 8.8% D 40 +700

137

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.9% 1.8% 1.9% 3.6% D 36 —

150

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.3% 0.0% 3.1% 3.3% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.7% usage) carries Canning's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.2% ← leak OFF 25.4% BRK 22.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Manny Machado R

13.1% 5.9% 7.1% 10.4% C+ 60 +390

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.7% 5.0% 4.9% 8.4% C 53 +390

Ty France R

10.1% 8.7% 10.0% 9.9% C 52 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.5% 8.0% 9.2% 9.6% D 47 +370

119

Miguel Andujar R

3.8% 4.0% 5.3% 4.3% D 38 —

120

Xander Bogaerts R

7.5% 4.8% 3.4% 6.3% D 38 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.2% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Arenado Machado Sheets Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Canning fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado +390 · 60

Ketel Marte +330 · 55

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 2 mph out 66°F open

-4

↑

7 mph · cross

74°F

6:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

72°F

7:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

71°F

8:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

69°F

9:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · slight_out

68°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 65°F, wind 2 mph SE (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Canning · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 55 C +330 WARM 22 0.216 91.7 10.5% 15.4%vs RHP 413 16.2% 30.8% 25.5% 38

2 Corbin Carroll 52 C +350 COOL 36 0.234 91.5 10.5% 21.7%vs RHP 406 13.9% 0.0% 17.8% 26

3 Nolan Arenado 42 D +525 COOL 96 0.165 85.1 7.8% 18.2%vs RHP 396 10.7% 16.7% 11.4% 25

4 Gabriel Moreno 40 D +700 COOL 106 0.165 89.3 8.6% 16.7%vs RHP 395 8.5% 0.0% 6.9% 33

5 Ildemaro Vargas 36 D — COOL 137 0.152 87.0 6.0% 10.3%vs RHP 399 6.0% 0.0% 9.9% 18

6 Geraldo Perdomo 34 D +750 WARM 150 0.117 87.2 5.7% 9.8%vs RHP 386 6.5% 15.4% 9.3% 37

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 2.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.33 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 60 C+ +390 WARM 10 0.212 90.0 12.5% 28.6%vs RHP 396 19.8% 30.8% 25.7% 28

2 Gavin Sheets 53 C +390 COOL 29 0.220 88.7 10.9% 34.9%vs RHP 397 12.7% 9.1% 20.2% 33

3 Ty France 52 C +625 COOL 37 0.203 91.1 12.4% 30.8%vs RHP 393 13.9% 8.3% 14.9% 25

4 Jackson Merrill 47 D +370 COOL 60 0.138 89.6 12.0% 15.1%vs RHP 406 11.8% 15.4% 10.9% 31

5 Miguel Andujar 38 D — WARM 119 0.146 88.2 8.1% 16.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 20

6 Xander Bogaerts 38 D +575 COOL 120 0.105 88.1 9.3% 17.9%vs RHP 395 8.3% 0.0% 8.4% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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