TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ DET

Comerica Park is live · 1.50×

ATH @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph out 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -4 FIT

Best of game Kerry Carpenter conv 24 · vs Suarez ⟷ Jonah Heim conv 26 · vs Valdez → edge: Jonah Heim

ATTACK José Suarez LHP · ATH

leak 80

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kerry Carpenter — D ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — D ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●●○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 67

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jonah Heim — D ●●●●○

2 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

3 Shea Langeliers — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jonah Heim: Match 27.0% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Valdez Edge — 0.234 · 91.5 · 9.7% 9.1% 16.5% F B O C 53

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Valdez — 0.229 · 94.1 · 10.9% 9.1% 14.7% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 16 long shots

· ATH Jonah Heim ✶ vs Valdez Edge — 0.226 · 87.3 · 6.9% 25.0% 27.0% F B O D 48

· DET Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Suarez — 0.235 · 91.0 · 5.7% 30.0% 17.9% F B O D 47

· DET Riley Greene vs Suarez — 0.182 · 91.7 · 6.2% 27.3% 17.6% F B O D 43

· DET Hao-Yu Lee COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.143 · 87.5 · 4.7% 28.6% 11.0% F B O D 38

· DET James Outman vs Suarez — 0.166 · 85.6 · 3.7% 18.2% 17.2% F B O D 38

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Suarez Edge — 0.191 · 90.1 · 6.3% 18.2% 13.8% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.096 · 90.0 · 6.8% 20.0% 9.9% F B O D 37

· ATH Colby Thomas vs Valdez Edge — 0.168 · 90.5 · 8.4% 0.0% 16.8% F B O D 41

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.208 · 88.8 · 6.6% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 45

· ATH Alika Williams COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.159 · 86.5 · — 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 26

· DET Jake Rogers vs Suarez Edge — 0.084 · 87.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 31

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Valdez Edge — 0.104 · 84.1 · 3.2% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 29

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Suarez — 0.131 · 88.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Suarez — 0.089 · 84.4 · 2.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 23

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.139 · 87.6 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 31

· ATH Joshua Kuroda-Grauer vs Valdez Edge — 0.134 · 90.4 · — 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.9% BRK 32.1% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L

17.0% 21.8% 15.8% 18.0% C 55 —

Shea Langeliers R Edge

17.1% 16.1% 5.0% 14.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jonah Heim S Edge

8.2% 3.1% 8.3% 7.0% D 48 —

Zack Gelof R Edge

6.3% 3.6% 20.0% 6.7% D 45 —

110

Colby Thomas R Edge

18.5% 15.4% 0.0% 12.9% D 41 —

144

Henry Bolte R Edge

7.6% 8.8% 5.9% 7.7% D 37 —

190

Jacob Wilson R Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 29 —

196

Alika Williams R Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 26 —

197

Joshua Kuroda-Grauer R Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Valdez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.3% ← leak OFF 25.3% BRK 25.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 9 — below the fade line

Kerry Carpenter L

10.7% 8.7% 11.4% 10.6% D 47 —

Riley Greene L

15.8% 6.4% 14.8% 13.8% D 43 —

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

17.1% 21.1% 9.3% 15.3% D 43 —

134

James Outman L

12.1% 0.0% 4.3% 7.1% D 38 —

135

Hao-Yu Lee R Edge

13.2% 9.1% 0.0% 7.8% D 38 —

180

Jake Rogers R Edge

7.9% 0.0% 6.2% 7.1% D 31 —

181

Matt Vierling R Edge

7.7% 0.0% 3.0% 5.1% D 31 —

187

Kevin Mcgonigle L

9.2% 2.1% 8.8% 8.0% D 29 —

203

Zach Mckinstry L

1.9% 0.0% 2.2% 1.7% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.3% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Heim Bolte Carpenter Greene Torkelson Outman Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Suarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jonah Heim — · 48

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 11 mph out 86°F open

-4

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

6:40p · peak

-4

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

7:40p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

8:40p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

9:40p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

83°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.50× 86°F, wind 11 mph W (out) — modifier: +6. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 55 C — COOL 22 0.229 94.1 10.9% 25.0%vs LHP 412 20.9% 9.1% 14.7% 23

2 Shea Langeliers 53 C — · 32 0.234 91.5 9.7% 34.6%vs LHP 417 19.5% 9.1% 16.5% 23

3 Jonah Heim ✶ 48 D — WARM 56 0.226 87.3 6.9% 35.0%vs LHP 411 17.4% 25.0% 27.0% 32

4 Zack Gelof 45 D — COOL 81 0.208 88.8 6.6% 23.1%vs LHP 392 20.0% 0.0% 13.1% 10

5 Colby Thomas 41 D — · 110 0.168 90.5 8.4% 18.2%vs LHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 16.8% 16

6 Henry Bolte 37 D — COOL 144 0.096 90.0 6.8% 42.9%vs LHP 422 14.3% 20.0% 9.9% 35

7 Jacob Wilson 29 D — COOL 190 0.104 84.1 3.2% 7.1%vs LHP 375 4.8% 0.0% 8.3% 6

8 Alika Williams 26 D — COOL 196 0.159 86.5 — 11.1%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 20

9 Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 26 D — · 197 0.134 90.4 — 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 28

vs José Suarez · LHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kerry Carpenter 47 D — COOL 63 0.235 91.0 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 380 17.1% 30.0% 17.9% 30

2 Riley Greene 43 D — · 94 0.182 91.7 6.2% 13.3%vs LHP 399 12.2% 27.3% 17.6% 35

3 Spencer Torkelson 43 D — WARM 95 0.191 90.1 6.3% 6.7%vs LHP 393 15.7% 18.2% 13.8% 24

4 James Outman 38 D — WARM 134 0.166 85.6 3.7% 18.5% 398 11.5% 18.2% 17.2% 21

5 Hao-Yu Lee 38 D — COOL 135 0.143 87.5 4.7% 10.5%vs LHP 379 28.6% 28.6% 11.0% 21

6 Jake Rogers 31 D — WARM 180 0.084 87.4 4.6% 0.0%vs LHP 389 6.2% 0.0% 8.3% 9

7 Matt Vierling 31 D — COOL 181 0.139 87.6 3.9% 10.0%vs LHP 377 8.3% 0.0% 6.3% 26

8 Kevin Mcgonigle 29 D — · 187 0.131 88.3 4.7% 9.1%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 35

9 Zach Mckinstry 23 D — COOL 203 0.089 84.4 2.2% 5.1% 386 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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