TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.79×

ATL @ PIT

PNC Park · 12:35p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.79× Wind 2 mph in 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

12:35p

-3 ↑

1:35p

-3 ↑

2:35p

-4 ↑

3:35p

-5 ↑

4:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at -3

Best of game Matt Olson conv 21 · vs Keller ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 24 · vs Elder → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Mitch Keller RHP · PIT

leak 89

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +265 C ●●●○○

2 Ozzie Albies +525 D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Bryce Elder RHP · ATL

leak 47

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +320 C ●●●●○

2 Ryan O'Hearn +575 D ●●●○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 26.2% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Elder Edge +320 0.249 · 91.1 · 7.8% 25.0% 22.2% F B O C 50

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Keller Edge +265 0.283 · 92.9 · 10.0% 16.7% 26.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Elder Edge +575 0.200 · 89.7 · 5.8% 16.7% 17.6% F B O D 42

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Elder Edge +525 0.190 · 90.9 · 6.9% 15.4% 12.0% F B O D 41

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Keller Edge +525 0.173 · 87.1 · 5.5% 16.7% 9.4% F B O D 37

· PIT Marcell Ozuna HOT vs Elder — 0.117 · 89.6 · 6.4% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 33

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Keller Edge +400 0.196 · 91.3 · 10.5% 8.3% 11.5% F B O D 47

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Elder +850 0.085 · 86.0 · 3.6% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 24

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Keller +500 0.148 · 90.4 · 8.6% 8.3% 6.2% F B O D 37

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Keller Edge +575 0.140 · 90.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Keller Edge +575 0.125 · 87.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 32

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Keller +950 0.151 · 86.4 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Elder Edge — 0.054 · 84.0 · 2.3% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.7% BRK 34.6% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.6% 10.1% 12.5% 14.8% C 57 +265

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L Edge

16.9% 21.7% 0.0% 15.5% D 47 +400

128

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.3% 1.2% 3.4% 4.1% D 37 +525

132

Austin Riley R

13.0% 12.7% 3.4% 11.7% D 37 +500

156

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

4.2% 5.0% 10.3% 5.5% D 33 +575

163

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.6% 6.7% 3.1% 6.0% D 32 +575

173

Mauricio Dubon R

3.9% 6.1% 4.3% 4.6% D 30 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Keller's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.7% ← leak BRK 27.2% OFF 9.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.8% 7.4% 12.8% 13.0% C 50 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

9.2% 3.2% 4.8% 7.1% D 42 +575

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.1% 13.6% 5.5% 10.0% D 41 +525

155

Marcell Ozuna R

9.0% 8.7% 0.0% 8.3% D 33 —

189

Nick Gonzales R

1.9% 4.9% 0.0% 2.6% D 24 +850

195

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.7% usage) carries Elder's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Albies Lowe O'Hearn Reynolds

Legend

attack side — vs Keller fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +320 · 50

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 12:35p · roof open

Park 0.79× Wind 2 mph in 70°F open

-5

↑

6 mph · slight_out

77°F

12:35p

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

1:35p · peak

-3

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

2:35p

-4

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

3:35p

-5

↑

7 mph · slight_out

80°F

4:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.79× 70°F, wind 2 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mitch Keller · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.01 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 57 C +265 WARM 14 0.283 92.9 10.0% 32.7%vs RHP 408 20.9% 16.7% 26.2% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 47 D +400 COOL 64 0.196 91.3 10.5% 25.0%vs RHP 406 18.6% 8.3% 11.5% 36

3 Ozzie Albies 37 D +525 WARM 128 0.173 87.1 5.5% 13.3%vs RHP 383 13.2% 16.7% 9.4% 38

4 Austin Riley 37 D +500 COOL 132 0.148 90.4 8.6% 14.0%vs RHP 404 7.8% 8.3% 6.2% 28

5 Mike Yastrzemski 33 D +575 WARM 156 0.140 90.3 5.9% 15.9%vs RHP 383 6.8% 0.0% 7.4% 24

6 Dominic Smith 32 D +575 COOL 163 0.125 87.6 6.6% 13.6%vs RHP 390 7.1% 0.0% 6.7% 24

7 Mauricio Dubon 30 D +950 COOL 173 0.151 86.4 5.8% 13.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 37

vs Bryce Elder · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 50 C +320 WARM 46 0.249 91.1 7.8% 26.6%vs RHP 392 17.7% 25.0% 22.2% 33

2 Ryan O'Hearn 42 D +575 WARM 94 0.200 89.7 5.8% 24.0%vs RHP 384 16.4% 16.7% 17.6% 36

3 Bryan Reynolds 41 D +525 COOL 98 0.190 90.9 6.9% 17.5%vs RHP 411 14.0% 15.4% 12.0% 31

4 Marcell Ozuna 33 D — HOT 155 0.117 89.6 6.4% 14.3%vs RHP 413 8.7% 16.7% 8.7% 6

5 Nick Gonzales 24 D +850 COOL 189 0.085 86.0 3.6% 9.1%vs RHP 399 4.8% 8.3% 6.5% 35

6 Jake Mangum 19 D — WARM 195 0.054 84.0 2.3% 6.2%vs RHP 410 2.1% 0.0% 5.4% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.