TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ TB

Neutral air · 1.04×

NYY @ TB

Tropicana Field · 1:10p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Ben Rice conv 35 · vs Rasmussen ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 46 · vs Proxy → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 91

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice +350 C+ ●●●●●

2 Trent Grisham +400 D ●●●○○

3 Jose Caballero +950 D ●○○○○

FADE NYY Bullpen Proxy · MIN

leak 44

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — B ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●●●○

3 Ben Williamson — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 30.4% · 14D pace 61.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero ✶ vs Proxy — 0.259 · 93.4 · 13.0% 61.5% 30.4% F B O B 71

· NYY Ben Rice vs Rasmussen Edge +350 0.305 · 92.0 · 10.1% 33.3% 35.8% F B O C+ 68

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Rasmussen — 0.230 · 86.8 · 9.0% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Cedric Mullins vs Proxy — 0.133 · 88.4 · 3.8% 33.3% 12.7% F B O D 41

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Rasmussen Edge +400 0.177 · 90.9 · 8.8% 20.0% 21.0% F B O D 48

· — Ben Williamson COOL vs Proxy — 0.097 · 87.8 · 1.4% 20.0% 11.7% F B O D 32

· — Nick Fortes vs Proxy — 0.084 · 86.2 · 1.7% 20.0% 8.5% F B O D 30

· — Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Proxy — 0.168 · 90.7 · 9.5% 7.7% 10.4% F B O D 48

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Rasmussen +950 0.151 · 84.2 · 5.3% 0.0% 17.2% F B O D 36

· — Richie Palacios COOL vs Proxy — 0.088 · 86.1 · 3.4% 10.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +625 0.148 · 90.6 · 8.7% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 44

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +525 0.165 · 89.0 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 42

· — Yandy Diaz COOL vs Proxy — 0.169 · 90.8 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +700 0.081 · 88.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 35

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Proxy — 0.059 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 20

· — Taylor Walls vs Proxy — 0.071 · 85.3 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 80.2% ← leak OFF 12.1% BRK 7.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

18.5% 12.8% 9.7% 14.9% C+ 68 +350

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.0% 10.7% 6.2% 11.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

12.0% 6.2% 12.1% 11.1% D 48 +400

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.8% 20.0% 5.6% 11.9% D 44 +625

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.5% 9.4% 13.6% 6.7% D 42 +525

134

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 36 +950

145

Austin Wells L Edge

8.4% 0.0% 3.7% 6.3% D 35 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (80.2% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for NYY Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Grisham Caminero Mullins Williamson Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Rasmussen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero — · 71

Ben Rice +350 · 68

Trent Grisham +400 · 48

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 68 C+ +350 · 2 0.305 92.0 10.1% 34.5%vs RHP 389 26.5% 33.3% 35.8% 33

2 Paul Goldschmidt 51 C — COOL 43 0.230 86.8 9.0% 22.2%vs RHP 391 17.3% 0.0% 16.0% 21

3 Trent Grisham 48 D +400 WARM 55 0.177 90.9 8.8% 15.6%vs RHP 388 9.2% 20.0% 21.0% 12

4 Ryan Mcmahon 44 D +625 COOL 82 0.148 90.6 8.7% 23.5%vs RHP 380 50.0% 0.0% 14.4% 4

5 Cody Bellinger 42 D +525 COOL 97 0.165 89.0 6.9% 10.9%vs RHP 379 10.7% 0.0% 10.9% 29

6 Jose Caballero 36 D +950 WARM 134 0.151 84.2 5.3% 20.0%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 23

7 Austin Wells 35 D +700 COOL 145 0.081 88.8 6.2% 10.7%vs RHP 377 6.8% 0.0% 8.6% 16

vs NYY Bullpen Proxy 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 71 B — WARM 3 0.259 93.4 13.0% 31.0% 407 26.4% 61.5% 30.4% 37

2 Jonathan Aranda 48 D — COOL 78 0.168 90.7 9.5% 15.9% 391 12.9% 7.7% 10.4% 36

3 Cedric Mullins 41 D — WARM 125 0.133 88.4 3.8% 9.4% 393 12.7% 33.3% 12.7% 29

4 Yandy Diaz 40 D — COOL 133 0.169 90.8 6.9% 18.1% 383 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 32

5 Ben Williamson 32 D — COOL 176 0.097 87.8 1.4% 10.3% 398 3.2% 20.0% 11.7% 13

6 Richie Palacios 32 D — COOL 177 0.088 86.1 3.4% 4.3% 396 2.3% 10.0% 6.8% 28

7 Nick Fortes 30 D — WARM 179 0.084 86.2 1.7% 3.8% 400 2.1% 20.0% 8.5% 16

8 Taylor Walls 28 D — WARM 187 0.071 85.3 3.1% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 28

9 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 198 0.059 84.2 — 2.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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