TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.01×

CLE @ MIN

Target Field · 1:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 5 mph slight_out 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

12:40p

+6 ↑

1:40p

+6 ↑

2:40p

+7 ↑

3:40p

+7 ↑

4:40p

conditions build late — the 3:40p window peaks +7

Best of game Kody Clemens conv 38 · vs Williams ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 30 · vs Ober → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 89

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kody Clemens +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Josh Bell +425 C ●●●●○

3 Luke Keaschall +950 D ●●●○○

FADE Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 15

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins +330 C ●●●●●

2 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Manzardo +330 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 30.6% · 14D pace 45.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Williams Edge +370 0.258 · 92.7 · 12.4% 45.5% 30.6% F B O C+ 66

· CLE Rhys Hoskins vs Ober +330 0.180 · 88.4 · 10.1% 40.0% 19.3% F B O C 54

· MIN Josh Bell vs Williams Edge +425 0.178 · 89.8 · 11.2% 30.0% 22.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Williams +950 0.099 · 84.2 · 6.0% 20.0% 14.9% F B O D 36

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Ober Edge +750 0.123 · 86.2 · 4.7% 20.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Williams Edge +525 0.184 · 88.1 · 6.8% 9.1% 13.2% F B O D 46

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Williams +475 0.158 · 89.1 · 11.8% 9.1% 13.1% F B O D 49

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Ober Edge +330 0.159 · 89.0 · 10.3% 9.1% 12.0% F B O D 49

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Williams Edge +575 0.158 · 87.2 · 9.2% 10.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Ober Edge +475 0.184 · 88.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 45

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Ober Edge +390 0.171 · 90.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 44

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Williams Edge +625 0.141 · 89.5 · 9.6% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· MIN Austin Martin vs Williams — 0.077 · 86.9 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 31

· CLE Daniel Schneemann HOT vs Ober Edge +575 0.131 · 88.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Ober Edge — 0.055 · 83.1 · 1.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

OFF 36.5% FB 35.2% BRK 28.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

16.7% 8.3% 13.3% 10.1% C 54 +330

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

9.1% 12.8% 9.8% 11.3% D 49 +330

Travis Bazzana L Edge

0.0% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% D 45 +475

Chase Delauter L Edge

2.1% 8.1% 6.9% 6.7% D 44 +390

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

0.0% 11.9% 6.1% 8.2% D 43 +575

117

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

0.0% 3.4% 4.2% 2.7% D 39 +750

182

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Ober's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.5% BRK 48.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.9% 20.8% 13.6% C+ 66 +370

Josh Bell S Edge

10.8% 14.3% 10.7% C 53 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

15.1% 10.6% 12.5% D 49 +475

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.8% 1.3% 4.3% D 46 +525

Trevor Larnach L Edge

9.7% 6.8% 8.1% D 44 +575

102

Victor Caratini S Edge

7.2% 16.0% 8.5% D 40 +625

136

Luke Keaschall R

4.0% 3.9% 3.5% D 36 +950

168

Austin Martin R

3.1% 0.0% 2.2% D 31 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Williams's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Rocchio Clemens Bell Keaschall

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kody Clemens +370 · 66

Rhys Hoskins +330 · 54

Josh Bell +425 · 53

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 5 mph slight_out 68°F open

↑

6 mph · out

74°F

12:40p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

1:40p

↑

6 mph · out

78°F

2:40p

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

3:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 68°F, wind 5 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 54 C +330 WARM 27 0.180 88.4 10.1% 25.0%vs RHP 383 13.4% 40.0% 19.3% 8

2 Kyle Manzardo 49 D +330 COOL 54 0.159 89.0 10.3% 22.7%vs RHP 389 11.1% 9.1% 12.0% 21

3 Travis Bazzana 45 D +475 COOL 77 0.184 88.2 6.2% 20.0%vs RHP 395 10.6% 0.0% 13.5% 31

4 Chase Delauter 44 D +390 WARM 81 0.171 90.5 7.2% 23.7%vs RHP 382 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 33

5 Daniel Schneemann 43 D +575 HOT 87 0.131 88.0 8.6% 12.8%vs RHP 398 6.9% 0.0% 8.8% 18

6 Brayan Rocchio 39 D +750 COOL 117 0.123 86.2 4.7% 12.2%vs RHP 382 7.1% 20.0% 8.7% 31

7 Steven Kwan 26 D — COOL 182 0.055 83.1 1.9% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.2% 0.0% 7.2% 32

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.84 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 66 C+ +370 WARM 5 0.258 92.7 12.4% 23.3%vs RHP 390 20.4% 45.5% 30.6% 32

2 Josh Bell 53 C +425 WARM 28 0.178 89.8 11.2% 23.3%vs RHP 404 11.9% 30.0% 22.2% 31

3 Royce Lewis 49 D +475 WARM 52 0.158 89.1 11.8% 17.1%vs RHP 394 15.7% 9.1% 13.1% 28

4 Brooks Lee 46 D +525 WARM 71 0.184 88.1 6.8% 20.4%vs RHP 367 15.7% 9.1% 13.2% 32

5 Trevor Larnach 44 D +575 WARM 85 0.158 87.2 9.2% 10.9%vs RHP 398 6.8% 10.0% 9.9% 29

6 Victor Caratini 40 D +625 · 102 0.141 89.5 9.6% 19.4%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 22

7 Luke Keaschall 36 D +950 COOL 136 0.099 84.2 6.0% 8.3%vs RHP 370 5.2% 20.0% 14.9% 26

8 Austin Martin 31 D — WARM 168 0.077 86.9 5.0% 4.2%vs RHP 392 2.0% 0.0% 8.9% 13

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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