Today · 2026-07-08

Share Slate 🧙 Morning Wizard 🎲 Build Variance Card

228 scored matchups · top 5 preview · upgrade for full slate Lineups loading…

3:45p

🔥

6:35p

6:40p

🎯

6:40p

🔥

6:40p

6:45p

🔥

7:10p

7:40p

7:45p

8:05p

🔥

10:10p

🔥

10:10p

Locks 0/6

Daily Routine ready Routine

Prime Card 0/6 not saved

‹

⭐ Today's Slate

›

Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 5 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Hunter Goodman vs Roki Sasaki FIP 5.78 HR/FB 27.6% #6 Juan Soto vs Steven Cruz FIP 5.91 HR/FB 63.6% #12 Pete Crow-Armstrong vs Dean Kremer FIP 5.19 HR/FB 33.3% #13 Ian Happ vs Dean Kremer FIP 5.19 HR/FB 33.3% #14 Jake Mccarthy vs Roki Sasaki FIP 5.78 HR/FB 28.1%

📦 STACK Roki Sasaki FIP 5.78 HR/FB 27.6% → #1 Hunter Goodman, #14 Jake Mccarthy

📦 STACK COL Bullpen Proxy FIP 4.85 HR/FB 13.6% → #2 Shohei Ohtani, #10 Max Muncy

📦 STACK Dean Kremer FIP 5.19 HR/FB 33.3% → #12 Pete Crow-Armstrong, #13 Ian Happ

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-07. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.2% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Hunter Goodman (R) ²	81	-9.0	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟢 A	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	27	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%14.6% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle45.0° Distance403 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○○○	1.7×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.07 FIP3.79 IP792.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+23 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind6.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
2	Shohei Ohtani (L)	76	-14.3	●	COL Bullpen Proxy COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%16.3% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffMichael Lorenzen Exit Velo112.2 mph Angle19.0° Distance409 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○○○●●	0.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.40 FIP4.85 IP821.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind6.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
3	Junior Caminero (R) ⁴	72	-10.5	●	Gerrit Cole (RHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	26	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffHunter Brown Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle26.0° Distance437 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	●●○○○	1.5×	·	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/90.97 FIP3.71 IP821.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
4	James Wood (L)	70	-9.5	●	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%13.0% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffTatsuya Imai Exit Velo111.4 mph Angle24.0° Distance419 ft StadiumNationals Park	○●○●●	0.0×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.41 FIP4.90 IP831.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.3°F Wind1.0 mph E Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note80°F, wind 1 mph E (out) — modifier: +1
5	Juan Soto (L) ³	69	-10.6	●	Steven Cruz (RHP) KC @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%12.8% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffSeth Lugo Exit Velo111.5 mph Angle23.0° Distance415 ft StadiumCiti Field	●○○●●	0.0×	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.2% HR/91.30 FIP4.66 IP804.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+36 Weather · Citi Field hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp82.5°F Wind6.0 mph NNW Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+36 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note82°F, wind 6 mph NNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1
6	Kyle Schwarber (L) ²	69	-16.0	●	Chase Burns (RHP) PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	31	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%13.4% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffAndrew Abbott Exit Velo112.2 mph Angle20.0° Distance408 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.41 FIP5.02 IP796.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-10 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp88.0°F Wind5.0 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note88°F, wind 5 mph NW (in) — modifier: +2
7	Ben Rice (L) ³	69	-2.9	●	Shane McClanahan (LHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	26	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV91.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-07 OffIan Seymour Exit Velo103.2 mph Angle31.0° Distance382 ft StadiumTropicana Field	●○○●●	0.0×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.19 FIP4.08 IP772.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
8	Dominic Canzone (L) ³	67	-3.1	●	Tyler Phillips (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffShane Bieber Exit Velo104.4 mph Angle27.0° Distance401 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.98 FIP3.97 IP842.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
9	Max Muncy (S)	68	-9.1	●	COL Bullpen Proxy COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs ?HP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls52 BBE Barrel%13.5% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle30.0° Distance422 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	3.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.40 FIP4.85 IP821.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind6.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
10	Kody Clemens (L) ³	64	-7.3	●	Slade Cecconi (RHP) CLE @ MIN · Target Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffBrendan Beck Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance393 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	●●●○○	0.7×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.04 IP828.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-11 Weather · Target Field warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76.3°F Wind6.4 mph WNW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note76°F, wind 6 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +0
11	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁵	63	-15.1	●	Foster Griffin (LHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	29	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%13.8% Avg EV94.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffCasey Legumina Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle23.0° Distance424 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	●●○○○	1.5×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.42 FIP4.72 IP865.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+6 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.3°F Wind1.0 mph E Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note80°F, wind 1 mph E (out) — modifier: +1
12	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ³	63	-13.3	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffKyle Hart Exit Velo100.4 mph Angle38.0° Distance390 ft StadiumWrigley Field	●○○○○	1.3×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.10 IP808.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-21 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind3 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-21 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note81°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
13	Ian Happ (S) ³	63	-8.1	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%12.6% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChad Patrick Exit Velo106.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance381 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○○○○○	2.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.10 IP808.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-5 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind3 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-5 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note81°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
14	Jake Mccarthy (L) ²	63	+3.2	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	9	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls46 BBE Barrel%8.7% Avg EV85.0 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	37d Last HR · 2026-06-01 OffJosé Soriano Exit Velo104.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance397 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○○○○	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.07 FIP3.79 IP792.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+16 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind6.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+16 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
15	Samuel Basallo (L) ⁴	62	-10.2	●	Colin Rea (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffHunter Greene Exit Velo105.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance406 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○●●○	0.2×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB17.0% HR/91.59 FIP4.85 IP806.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-14 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind3 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note81°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
16	Dillon Dingler (R) ⁴	62	-6.8	●	Jeffrey Springs (LHP) ATH @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-06-25 OffEnyel De Los Santos Exit Velo103.3 mph Angle31.0° Distance432 ft StadiumComerica Park	○○○○○	2.2×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.55 FIP5.00 IP839.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+33 Weather · Comerica Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp87.9°F Wind10.2 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note88°F, wind 10 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +3
17	Bryce Harper (L) ³	61	-11.2	●	Chase Burns (RHP) PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle26.0° Distance405 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	1.8×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.41 FIP5.02 IP796.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp88.0°F Wind5.0 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note88°F, wind 5 mph NW (in) — modifier: +2
18	Pete Alonso (R) ³	61	-13.1	●	Colin Rea (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffZack Littell Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	1.8×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB17.0% HR/91.59 FIP4.85 IP806.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-8 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind3 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note81°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
19	Kyle Karros (R) ²	61	+0.3	●	Roki Sasaki (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	7	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffDylan Smith Exit Velo105.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance457 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○●○○	0.4×	1	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.07 FIP3.79 IP792.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind6.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 7 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
20	Dansby Swanson (R)	60	-5.2	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffRodolfo Durán Exit Velo92.7 mph Angle34.0° Distance387 ft StadiumWrigley Field	●○○○○	1.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.10 IP808.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+7 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind3 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+7 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note81°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
21	Matt Olson (L) ³	60	-10.8	●	Jared Jones (RHP) ATL @ PIT · PNC Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffDevin Williams Exit Velo100.4 mph Angle25.0° Distance379 ft StadiumTruist Park	●○○●○	0.2×	·	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.07 FIP4.09 IP833.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · PNC Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85.6°F Wind4 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR Note86°F, wind 4 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +2
22	Luke Raley (L) ²	59	-5.9	●	Tyler Phillips (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	27d Last HR · 2026-06-11 OffKyle Bradish Exit Velo92.4 mph Angle34.0° Distance388 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	6.0×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.98 FIP3.97 IP842.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
23	Freddie Freeman (L)	62	-6.8	●	COL Bullpen Proxy COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls43 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffKyle Hart Exit Velo100.6 mph Angle36.0° Distance388 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○●○○○	0.8×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.40 FIP4.85 IP821.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp79.1°F Wind6.8 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note79°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1
24	Curtis Mead (R)	58	-5.7	●	Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV88.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffMike Burrows Exit Velo102.2 mph Angle25.0° Distance404 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.41 FIP4.90 IP831.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-16 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.3°F Wind1.0 mph E Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-16 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note80°F, wind 1 mph E (out) — modifier: +1
25	Christian Walker (R) ²	58	-7.9	●	Foster Griffin (LHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffMason Englert Exit Velo99.1 mph Angle28.0° Distance351 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○●○○	0.5×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.42 FIP4.72 IP865.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-12 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp80.3°F Wind1.0 mph E Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note80°F, wind 1 mph E (out) — modifier: +1
26	Kerry Carpenter (L) ²	58	·	●	Jeffrey Springs (LHP) ATH @ DET · Comerica Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	13	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.6% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffCam Schlittler Exit Velo102.9 mph Angle28.0° Distance410 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○○○○	1.2×	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.6% HR/91.55 FIP5.00 IP839.8 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+9 Weather · Comerica Park hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp87.9°F Wind10.2 mph SW Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note88°F, wind 10 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +3
27	Seiya Suzuki (R) ³	57	-9.3	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	13	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffWalker Buehler Exit Velo102.8 mph Angle33.0° Distance426 ft StadiumWrigley Field	●○○○○	1.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.10 IP808.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+3 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind3 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note81°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
28	Brandon Lowe (L) ²	57	-10.7	●	Grant Holmes (RHP) ATL @ PIT · PNC Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffBrad Lord Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance396 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○●○	0.2×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.12 FIP4.09 IP804.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · PNC Park hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp85.6°F Wind4 mph WSW Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note86°F, wind 4 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +2
29	Michael Busch (L) ³	57	-9.8	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	11	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV88.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffRodolfo Durán Exit Velo102.1 mph Angle31.0° Distance412 ft StadiumWrigley Field	●○○○○	0.7×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.10 IP808.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-15 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind3 mph SE Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 12 HR Note81°F, wind 3 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +1
30	Jake Bauers (L) ³	56	-8.5	●	Michael McGreevy (RHP) MIL @ STL · Busch Stadium	7:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffEduardo Rodriguez Exit Velo102.2 mph Angle25.0° Distance400 ft StadiumChase Field	○●○○○	0.6×	1	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.06 FIP4.24 IP792.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+7 Weather · Busch Stadium hot air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87.5°F Wind1.0 mph SSE Charactercross HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+7 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note87°F, wind 1 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +2

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

You saw the full board yesterday

Tonight's full board — all 150 ranked picks + conviction tools — is behind the wall. Check our public track record, then unlock it with a 7-day money-back guarantee.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

223 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

Lock your picks, track your hit rate, and analyze co-occurrence.

Upgrade to Unlock

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

18.1%

▼ -1.5 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 18.9% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-07

26 HRs

26%

7 caught / 26 HRs

in top 50

#2 James Wood

39.4%

🟡

#3 Ben Rice

39.2%

🔵

#4 Shohei Ohtani

23.5%

🔵

#5 Kyle Schwarber

19.6%

🔵

#16 Juan Soto

19.6%

🔵

#38 Jordan Walker

29.1%

🟠

#39 Owen Caissie

24.4%

🟠

Missed

Rhys Hoskins Jordan Walker Nick Loftin Cole Young Yandy Díaz +14 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

James Wood ×4 Ben Rice ×3 Jordan Walker ×3 Juan Soto ×3 Junior Caminero ×3

❄️ Cold

Jake Bauers 0 of 7d Max Muncy 0 of 7d Bryce Harper 0 of 6d Gavin Sheets 0 of 6d Jac Caglianone 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.9%

B 19.7%

C+ 16.5%

C 13.4%

D 8.7%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-08

You saw the full board yesterday

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.