TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.00×

CLE @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph slight_out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-5 ↑

9:40p

-5 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +0

Best of game Rhys Hoskins conv 19 · vs Prielipp ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 36 · vs Cecconi → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Connor Prielipp LHP · MIN

leak 82

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rhys Hoskins +390 D ●●●○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +850 D ●○○○○

3 Kyle Manzardo +475 D ●○○○○

FADE Slade Cecconi RHP · CLE

leak 44

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Josh Bell +400 C ●●●●○

3 Luke Keaschall +950 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 45.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Cecconi Edge +330 0.255 · 92.8 · 10.4% 45.5% 27.0% F B O C+ 64

· MIN Josh Bell vs Cecconi Edge +400 0.180 · 89.8 · 9.3% 30.0% 19.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· CLE Rhys Hoskins vs Prielipp Edge +390 0.169 · 88.3 · 9.5% 20.0% 18.6% F B O D 47

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Cecconi +950 0.100 · 84.5 · 4.8% 22.2% 12.6% F B O D 35

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Cecconi Edge +525 0.187 · 88.0 · 5.7% 9.1% 11.8% F B O D 45

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Cecconi +425 0.160 · 89.0 · 9.9% 9.1% 11.2% F B O D 48

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Cecconi Edge +500 0.158 · 87.0 · 7.7% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Prielipp Edge +850 0.124 · 86.3 · 4.6% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 34

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Prielipp +475 0.161 · 89.0 · 10.0% 9.1% 7.9% F B O D 45

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Prielipp +750 0.186 · 88.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Cecconi Edge +525 0.143 · 89.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 39

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Prielipp +700 0.169 · 90.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 40

· CLE Daniel Schneemann HOT vs Prielipp — 0.132 · 88.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· MIN Austin Martin vs Cecconi — 0.078 · 86.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Prielipp — 0.056 · 83.1 · 1.9% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 47.1% FB 40.1% OFF 12.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

13.3% 7.4% 16.7% 9.6% D 47 +390

Kyle Manzardo L

9.8% 12.8% 9.1% 11.3% D 45 +475

121

Travis Bazzana L

5.0% 6.3% 0.0% 5.3% D 41 +750

127

Chase Delauter L

6.9% 8.1% 2.1% 6.7% D 40 +700

141

Daniel Schneemann L

6.1% 11.9% 0.0% 8.2% D 39 —

180

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.2% 3.4% 0.0% 2.7% D 34 +850

223

Steven Kwan L

0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Prielipp's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 72.5% ← leak BRK 25.9% OFF 1.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.9% 20.8% 12.5% 13.6% C+ 64 +330

Josh Bell S Edge

11.0% 14.3% 6.9% 10.8% C 52 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

15.2% 10.6% 5.0% 12.6% D 48 +425

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.9% 1.3% 1.4% 4.3% D 45 +525

112

Trevor Larnach L Edge

9.8% 7.0% 3.3% 8.2% D 43 +500

138

Victor Caratini S Edge

7.4% 16.0% 7.4% 8.6% D 39 +525

170

Luke Keaschall R

3.4% 3.9% 0.0% 3.2% D 35 +950

196

Austin Martin R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (72.5% usage) carries Cecconi's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Clemens Bell Keaschall

Legend

attack side — vs Prielipp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kody Clemens +330 · 64

Josh Bell +400 · 52

Rhys Hoskins +390 · 47

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph slight_out 71°F open

↑

2 mph · cross

73°F

6:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · cross

73°F

7:40p

-3

↑

4 mph · in

72°F

8:40p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

9:40p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 71°F, wind 2 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Connor Prielipp · LHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 47 D +390 WARM 84 0.169 88.3 9.5% 16.7%vs LHP 378 12.1% 20.0% 18.6% 9

2 Kyle Manzardo 45 D +475 COOL 95 0.161 89.0 10.0% 10.0%vs LHP 389 11.2% 9.1% 7.9% 23

3 Travis Bazzana 41 D +750 COOL 121 0.186 88.7 6.0% 11.8%vs LHP 395 10.9% 0.0% 9.4% 33

4 Chase Delauter 40 D +700 WARM 127 0.169 90.4 7.0% 8.3%vs LHP 382 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 33

5 Daniel Schneemann 39 D — HOT 141 0.132 88.0 8.3% 22.2%vs LHP 398 6.9% 0.0% 7.7% 21

6 Brayan Rocchio 34 D +850 COOL 180 0.124 86.3 4.6% 9.1%vs LHP 382 6.0% 10.0% 7.6% 34

7 Steven Kwan 23 D — COOL 223 0.056 83.1 1.9% 0.0%vs LHP 381 1.2% 0.0% 5.3% 35

vs Slade Cecconi · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 64 C+ +330 WARM 10 0.255 92.8 10.4% 23.3%vs RHP 390 20.8% 45.5% 27.0% 33

2 Josh Bell 52 C +400 WARM 56 0.180 89.8 9.3% 23.3%vs RHP 404 12.1% 30.0% 19.8% 32

3 Royce Lewis 48 D +425 WARM 80 0.160 89.0 9.9% 17.1%vs RHP 394 16.0% 9.1% 11.2% 30

4 Brooks Lee 45 D +525 WARM 94 0.187 88.0 5.7% 20.4%vs RHP 367 15.9% 9.1% 11.8% 33

5 Trevor Larnach 43 D +500 WARM 112 0.158 87.0 7.7% 11.1%vs RHP 398 6.8% 10.0% 8.8% 31

6 Victor Caratini 39 D +525 · 138 0.143 89.5 8.1% 19.4%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 25

7 Luke Keaschall 35 D +950 COOL 170 0.100 84.5 4.8% 8.3%vs RHP 370 5.3% 22.2% 12.6% 26

8 Austin Martin 31 D — WARM 196 0.078 86.8 4.3% 4.2%vs RHP 392 2.0% 0.0% 7.5% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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