TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ DET

Neutral air · 1.03×

ATH @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 2 mph cross 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+2 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +4

Best of game Kerry Carpenter conv 24 · vs Springs ⟷ Nick Kurtz conv 14 · vs Melton → edge: Kerry Carpenter

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 95

2.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kerry Carpenter — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene +330 C ●●●●○

3 Colt Keith — D ●●●○○

FADE Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 93

1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nick Kurtz +225 C ●●○○○

2 Shea Langeliers +305 C ●●○○○

3 Zack Gelof +500 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kerry Carpenter: 10.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Kerry Carpenter ✶ vs Springs — 0.237 · 91.0 · 10.6% 30.0% 18.9% F B O C 55

· DET Riley Greene vs Springs +330 0.184 · 92.0 · 11.8% 27.3% 18.7% F B O C 53

· ATH Nick Kurtz COOL vs Melton Edge +225 0.232 · 94.4 · 10.3% 9.1% 19.4% F B O C 53

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Springs Edge +330 0.193 · 90.1 · 11.8% 9.1% 18.0% F B O C 52

· DET Dillon Dingler COOL vs Springs Edge +370 0.279 · 90.1 · 10.8% 9.1% 17.9% F B O C 59

· ATH Shea Langeliers vs Melton +305 0.236 · 91.4 · 9.1% 9.1% 14.5% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· DET Colt Keith vs Springs — 0.129 · 88.8 · 8.5% 30.0% 12.4% F B O D 42

· ATH Zack Gelof COOL vs Melton +500 0.213 · 88.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 43

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Melton Edge +575 0.154 · 89.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 35

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Melton Edge +525 0.113 · 89.1 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 31

· ATH Jacob Wilson COOL vs Melton +950 0.105 · 84.2 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 27

· DET Matt Vierling COOL vs Springs Edge +525 0.137 · 87.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Springs +525 0.133 · 88.2 · 8.8% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Melton Edge +850 0.077 · 86.3 · 2.3% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 23

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Springs +950 0.091 · 84.5 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.6% ← leak BRK 25.4% OFF 8.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Nick Kurtz L Edge

17.4% 21.8% 16.2% 18.4% C 53 +225

Shea Langeliers R

16.8% 16.1% 5.0% 14.7% C 50 +305

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

113

Zack Gelof R

6.5% 3.7% 20.0% 6.8% D 43 +500

169

Carlos Cortes L Edge

8.6% 5.0% 9.8% 8.0% D 35 +575

195

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.7% 10.3% 5.0% 7.0% D 31 +525

209

Jacob Wilson R

2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% D 27 +950

221

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 1.9% 0.9% D 23 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.6% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.5% ← leak BRK 31.6% OFF 22.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dillon Dingler R Edge

13.2% 12.1% 6.5% 12.1% C 59 +370

Kerry Carpenter L

11.0% 11.4% 8.7% 10.7% C 55 —

Riley Greene L

16.4% 15.1% 6.4% 14.1% C 53 +330

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

17.3% 7.5% 21.1% 15.1% C 52 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

115

Colt Keith L

6.5% 19.4% 4.7% 8.1% D 42 —

145

Kevin Mcgonigle L

9.4% 8.9% 2.2% 8.2% D 38 +525

146

Matt Vierling R Edge

8.1% 3.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 38 +525

203

Zach Mckinstry L

1.9% 2.3% 0.0% 1.8% D 28 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.5% usage) carries Springs's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Kurtz Dingler Carpenter Greene Torkelson Keith

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kerry Carpenter — · 55

Riley Greene +330 · 53

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 2 mph cross 83°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

86°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · slight_out

85°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

82°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

79°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 83°F, wind 2 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Troy Melton · RHP 1.44 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.55 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Nick Kurtz 53 C +225 COOL 44 0.232 94.4 10.3% 41.2%vs RHP 412 21.2% 9.1% 19.4% 25

2 Shea Langeliers 50 C +305 · 65 0.236 91.4 9.1% 20.7%vs RHP 417 19.8% 9.1% 14.5% 23

3 Zack Gelof 43 D +500 COOL 113 0.213 88.8 6.2% 25.8%vs RHP 392 20.6% 0.0% 13.8% 8

4 Carlos Cortes 35 D +575 WARM 169 0.154 89.9 6.8% 15.4%vs RHP 404 4.7% 0.0% 9.9% 11

5 Lawrence Butler 31 D +525 WARM 195 0.113 89.1 6.0% 23.1%vs RHP 402 4.1% 0.0% 9.3% 24

6 Jacob Wilson 27 D +950 COOL 209 0.105 84.2 3.1% 11.5%vs RHP 375 4.8% 0.0% 8.9% 5

7 Jeff Mcneil 23 D +850 WARM 221 0.077 86.3 2.3% 7.5%vs RHP 373 4.3% 0.0% 7.5% 32

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.27 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler 59 C +370 COOL 21 0.279 90.1 10.8% 23.8%vs LHP 397 20.0% 9.1% 17.9% 38

2 Kerry Carpenter ✶ 55 C — WARM 34 0.237 91.0 10.6% 0.0%vs LHP 380 17.1% 30.0% 18.9% 29

3 Riley Greene 53 C +330 · 45 0.184 92.0 11.8% 13.3%vs LHP 399 12.4% 27.3% 18.7% 36

4 Spencer Torkelson 52 C +330 WARM 54 0.193 90.1 11.8% 6.7%vs LHP 393 14.8% 9.1% 18.0% 25

5 Colt Keith 42 D — · 115 0.129 88.8 8.5% 8.8% 378 6.6% 30.0% 12.4% 26

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 38 D +525 WARM 145 0.133 88.2 8.8% 9.1%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 36

7 Matt Vierling 38 D +525 COOL 146 0.137 87.7 7.3% 10.0%vs LHP 377 8.5% 0.0% 8.3% 25

8 Zach Mckinstry 28 D +950 COOL 203 0.091 84.5 4.2% 5.1% 386 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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