TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.87×

ATL @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.79× Wind 2 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

-1 ↑

7:40p

-2 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -1

Best of game Matt Olson conv 24 · vs Jones ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 24 · vs Holmes → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Jared Jones RHP · PIT

leak 100

1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +290 C+ ●●●●○

2 Ozzie Albies +500 D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Grant Holmes RHP · ATL

leak 89

1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +320 C ●●●●○

2 Ryan O'Hearn +475 D ●●●○○

3 Marcell Ozuna — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 32.3% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Jones Edge +290 0.283 · 92.8 · 10.9% 16.7% 32.3% F B O C+ 60

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Holmes Edge +320 0.253 · 90.9 · 10.8% 25.0% 23.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Holmes Edge +475 0.172 · 89.6 · 7.6% 16.7% 16.2% F B O D 44

· PIT Marcell Ozuna HOT vs Holmes — 0.117 · 89.6 · 8.8% 20.0% 9.0% F B O D 38

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Jones Edge +500 0.174 · 87.2 · 5.9% 16.7% 11.2% F B O D 38

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Holmes Edge +500 0.191 · 90.8 · 9.5% 15.4% 12.2% F B O D 47

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Jones Edge +425 0.197 · 91.2 · 11.4% 8.3% 15.2% F B O D 48

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Holmes +750 0.086 · 86.0 · 4.9% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 28

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Jones +475 0.147 · 90.6 · 9.3% 8.3% 6.4% F B O D 38

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Jones Edge +525 0.143 · 90.2 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 34

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Jones Edge +575 0.127 · 87.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Jones +750 0.150 · 86.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 30

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Holmes Edge — 0.055 · 83.9 · 3.3% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 44.2% FB 38.0% OFF 17.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

10.1% 17.6% 12.5% 14.8% C+ 60 +290

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Drake Baldwin L Edge

22.2% 17.1% 0.0% 15.7% D 48 +425

147

Ozzie Albies S Edge

1.2% 6.3% 3.4% 4.1% D 38 +500

153

Austin Riley R

12.7% 13.3% 3.4% 11.8% D 38 +475

175

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

5.0% 4.3% 10.7% 5.6% D 34 +525

185

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.7% 6.7% 3.3% 6.1% D 33 +575

199

Mauricio Dubon R

6.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.6% D 30 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Jones's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.6% ← leak BRK 46.0% OFF 5.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

17.2% 7.4% 13.0% 13.2% C 57 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.2% 13.6% 5.5% 10.0% D 47 +500

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

9.2% 3.2% 4.8% 7.1% D 44 +475

150

Marcell Ozuna R

9.0% 8.7% 0.0% 8.3% D 38 —

206

Nick Gonzales R

1.9% 4.9% 0.0% 2.7% D 28 +750

222

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.6% usage) carries Holmes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Albies Lowe Reynolds O'Hearn Ozuna

Legend

attack side — vs Jones fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +320 · 57

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.79× Wind 2 mph cross 81°F open

-1

↑

4 mph · out

85°F

6:40p · peak

-1

↑

4 mph · out

84°F

7:40p

-2

↑

3 mph · out

81°F

8:40p

-3

↑

3 mph · out

79°F

9:40p

-4

↑

2 mph · out

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.87× 81°F, wind 2 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jared Jones · RHP 1.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.85 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 60 C+ +290 · 20 0.283 92.8 10.9% 30.0%vs RHP 408 21.1% 16.7% 32.3% 35

2 Drake Baldwin 48 D +425 COOL 78 0.197 91.2 11.4% 28.6%vs RHP 406 18.8% 8.3% 15.2% 37

3 Ozzie Albies 38 D +500 · 147 0.174 87.2 5.9% 13.6%vs RHP 383 13.3% 16.7% 11.2% 42

4 Austin Riley 38 D +475 COOL 153 0.147 90.6 9.3% 14.3%vs RHP 404 7.9% 8.3% 6.4% 29

5 Mike Yastrzemski 34 D +525 WARM 175 0.143 90.2 6.4% 16.3%vs RHP 383 6.9% 0.0% 9.6% 24

6 Dominic Smith 33 D +575 COOL 185 0.127 87.7 7.3% 13.6%vs RHP 390 7.1% 0.0% 8.5% 25

7 Mauricio Dubon 30 D +750 COOL 199 0.150 86.3 6.3% 13.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 41

vs Grant Holmes · RHP 1.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 57 C +320 WARM 27 0.253 90.9 10.8% 26.6%vs RHP 392 17.9% 25.0% 23.2% 38

2 Bryan Reynolds 47 D +500 COOL 85 0.191 90.8 9.5% 17.5%vs RHP 411 14.1% 15.4% 12.2% 34

3 Ryan O'Hearn 44 D +475 WARM 99 0.172 89.6 7.6% 20.8%vs RHP 382 16.7% 16.7% 16.2% 41

4 Marcell Ozuna 38 D — HOT 150 0.117 89.6 8.8% 14.3%vs RHP 413 8.8% 20.0% 9.0% 6

5 Nick Gonzales 28 D +750 COOL 206 0.086 86.0 4.9% 9.1%vs RHP 399 4.9% 8.3% 6.7% 39

6 Jake Mangum 23 D — WARM 222 0.055 83.9 3.3% 6.2%vs RHP 410 2.1% 0.0% 5.9% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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