TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ TEX

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LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 6 mph out 87°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:05p

+6 ↑

8:05p

+5 ↑

9:05p

+3 ↑

10:05p

+5 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +7

Best of game Zach Neto conv 20 · vs Gore ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 36 · vs Ureña → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK MacKenzie Gore LHP · TEX

leak 60

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +330 C ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

3 Jorge Soler +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Walbert Ureña RHP · LAA

leak 11

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +400 C ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +475 D ●●●○○

3 Josh Jung +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ HOT vs Ureña Edge +400 0.229 · 92.2 · 7.9% 50.0% 22.8% F B O C 53

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Gore Edge +330 0.226 · 89.7 · 10.0% 20.0% 19.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Jake Burger vs Ureña +475 0.191 · 90.2 · 7.3% 18.2% 15.8% F B O D 45

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Gore — 0.149 · 89.6 · 8.4% 18.2% 11.5% F B O D 40

· LAA Jorge Soler COOL vs Gore Edge +400 0.197 · 88.4 · 9.1% 10.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· TEX Josh Jung vs Ureña +700 0.148 · 90.4 · 5.6% 11.1% 8.4% F B O D 37

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs Gore Edge +400 0.138 · 89.9 · 7.8% 10.0% 8.6% F B O D 37

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Ureña +850 0.146 · 88.8 · 5.6% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 36

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Ureña Edge +850 0.025 · 87.5 · — 9.1% 5.1% F B O D 17

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Ureña Edge +750 0.143 · 87.7 · 6.2% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 36

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Gore Edge +575 0.143 · 87.4 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 36

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Ureña Edge +425 0.159 · 92.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs Gore +850 0.117 · 87.1 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Gore Edge +850 0.131 · 89.2 · 6.9% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 33

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe COOL vs Gore Edge +500 0.106 · 86.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.9% ← leak BRK 30.8% OFF 10.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Zach Neto R Edge

16.4% 10.0% 4.0% 13.0% C 52 +330

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

101

Jorge Soler R Edge

13.6% 11.8% 0.0% 11.7% D 44 +400

129

Josh Lowe L

13.1% 2.8% 5.0% 8.5% D 40 —

156

Jo Adell R Edge

8.9% 6.1% 6.5% 7.7% D 37 +400

162

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.9% 8.3% 13.0% 8.1% D 36 +575

188

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

7.2% 7.5% 0.0% 6.2% D 33 +850

193

Logan O'Hoppe R Edge

9.6% 7.8% 15.4% 9.5% D 32 +500

202

Nolan Schanuel L

3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 29 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.9% usage) carries Gore's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.6% ← leak OFF 32.5% BRK 15.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

15.9% 4.7% 10.0% 11.6% C 53 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

7.6% 11.5% 12.2% 9.8% D 45 +475

135

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.5% 16.2% 18.6% 13.5% D 40 +425

157

Josh Jung R

7.8% 0.0% 3.4% 5.6% D 37 +700

160

Evan Carter L Edge

9.3% 0.0% 5.7% 7.0% D 36 +750

163

Ezequiel Duran R

8.0% 0.0% 5.5% 6.0% D 36 +850

227

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 17 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Ureña's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Lowe Pederson Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Gore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson +400 · 53

Zach Neto +330 · 52

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 6 mph out 87°F retractable

↑

8 mph · out

99°F

7:05p · peak

↑

9 mph · slight_out

97°F

8:05p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

95°F

9:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

93°F

10:05p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

91°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 87°F, wind 6 mph W (out) — modifier: +2. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs MacKenzie Gore · LHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 52 C +330 COOL 57 0.226 89.7 10.0% 20.0%vs LHP 402 20.0% 20.0% 19.2% 28

2 Jorge Soler 44 D +400 COOL 101 0.197 88.4 9.1% 13.3%vs LHP 398 14.5% 10.0% 10.6% 23

3 Josh Lowe 40 D — WARM 129 0.149 89.6 8.4% 14.0% 395 11.3% 18.2% 11.5% 26

4 Jo Adell 37 D +400 COOL 156 0.138 89.9 7.8% 25.0%vs LHP 412 10.6% 10.0% 8.6% 31

5 Oswald Peraza 36 D +575 COOL 162 0.143 87.4 8.0% 29.4%vs LHP 386 7.7% 0.0% 9.3% 13

6 Vaughn Grissom 33 D +850 COOL 188 0.131 89.2 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 396 7.4% 0.0% 5.6% 11

7 Logan O'Hoppe 32 D +500 COOL 193 0.106 86.4 8.7% 0.0%vs LHP 408 4.1% 0.0% 5.6% 21

8 Nolan Schanuel 29 D +850 COOL 202 0.117 87.1 4.1% 20.0%vs LHP 372 8.1% 0.0% 7.0% 32

vs Walbert Ureña · RHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 53 C +400 HOT 50 0.229 92.2 7.9% 29.2%vs RHP 392 19.4% 50.0% 22.8% 21

2 Jake Burger 45 D +475 · 93 0.191 90.2 7.3% 25.5%vs RHP 399 14.8% 18.2% 15.8% 31

3 Brandon Nimmo 40 D +425 WARM 135 0.159 92.5 8.5% 13.3%vs RHP 411 8.8% 0.0% 7.8% 21

4 Josh Jung 37 D +700 · 157 0.148 90.4 5.6% 16.3%vs RHP 386 11.1% 11.1% 8.4% 24

5 Evan Carter 36 D +750 COOL 160 0.143 87.7 6.2% 14.3%vs RHP 377 9.8% 0.0% 12.0% 12

6 Ezequiel Duran 36 D +850 · 163 0.146 88.8 5.6% 16.7%vs RHP 383 10.4% 9.1% 8.3% 40

7 Alejandro Osuna 17 D +850 · 227 0.025 87.5 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 3.0% 9.1% 5.1% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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