TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.21×

COL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 3 mph out 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

7:10p

+11 ↑

8:10p

+10 ↑

9:10p

+9 ↑

10:10p

+8 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +12

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 40 · vs Sasaki ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Roki Sasaki RHP · LAD

leak 96

1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.27 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +235 A ●●●●●

2 Kyle Karros +575 C+ ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Tovar +500 C ●●○○○

FADE COL Bullpen Proxy · COL

leak 60

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +192 B ●●●●○

2 Mookie Betts +400 C ●●●○○

3 Max Muncy +280 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Sasaki +235 0.295 · 91.1 · 14.6% 33.3% 46.7% F B O A 81

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Proxy +192 0.240 · 93.6 · 16.3% 23.1% 32.3% F B O B 76

· COL Kyle Karros vs Sasaki +575 0.167 · 89.6 · 10.3% 25.0% 26.5% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Proxy +400 0.185 · 90.8 · 8.6% 23.1% 18.2% F B O C 57

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Sasaki +500 0.148 · 87.2 · 9.6% 18.2% 14.1% F B O C 55

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Proxy +280 0.234 · 90.2 · 13.5% 12.5% 19.2% F B O C+ 68

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Sasaki Edge +750 0.206 · 85.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 31.4% F B O C+ 63

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Proxy +370 0.202 · 90.7 · 11.2% 15.4% 15.5% F B O C+ 62

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Proxy +350 0.195 · 89.2 · 8.5% 7.7% 14.7% F B O C 57

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Sasaki Edge +525 0.191 · 84.2 · 8.4% 0.0% 17.6% F B O C 55

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Proxy +400 0.175 · 90.2 · 10.3% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Proxy +425 0.131 · 88.8 · 5.4% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 45

· COL Troy Johnston vs Sasaki Edge +700 0.140 · 89.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 46

· COL Willi Castro COOL vs Sasaki Edge — 0.108 · 88.2 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 48

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Sasaki Edge +700 0.098 · 91.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 48

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Sasaki — 0.084 · 87.9 · 3.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Proxy — 0.097 · 88.4 · 5.5% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 42

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 43.5% ← leak OFF 35.1% BRK 21.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

17.9% 8.3% 17.3% 16.7% A 81 +235

Neutral · 4

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.1% 13.6% 1.9% 5.9% C+ 63 +750

Kyle Karros R

7.4% 15.8% 5.5% 7.7% C+ 61 +575

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.8% 6.5% 2.5% 5.5% C 55 +525

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.6% 4.8% 9.8% 8.1% C 55 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

5.7% 7.5% 6.0% 6.2% D 48 —

Edouard Julien L Edge

5.9% 3.4% 11.8% 6.8% D 48 +700

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 4.1% 2.6% D 46 +700

133

Tyler Freeman R

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 40 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.5% usage) carries Sasaki's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for COL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Mccarthy Karros Tovar Ohtani Muncy Freeman Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Sasaki fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Hunter Goodman +235 · 81

Shohei Ohtani +192 · 76

Kyle Karros +575 · 61

Mookie Betts +400 · 57

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 3 mph out 68°F open

+12

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

7:10p · peak

+11

↑

4 mph · out

75°F

8:10p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

74°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

73°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.21× 68°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Roki Sasaki · RHP 1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 81 A +235 WARM 1 0.295 91.1 14.6% 40.4%vs RHP 409 26.2% 33.3% 46.7% 30

2 Jake Mccarthy 63 C+ +750 WARM 14 0.206 85.0 8.7% 17.5%vs RHP 419 18.2% 0.0% 31.4% 46

3 Kyle Karros 61 C+ +575 WARM 18 0.167 89.6 10.3% 21.4%vs RHP 414 10.0% 25.0% 26.5% 30

4 Tj Rumfield 55 C +525 COOL 33 0.191 84.2 8.4% 19.4%vs RHP 406 9.1% 0.0% 17.6% 41

5 Ezequiel Tovar 55 C +500 COOL 37 0.148 87.2 9.6% 17.0%vs RHP 410 8.5% 18.2% 14.1% 38

6 Willi Castro 48 D — COOL 81 0.108 88.2 8.9% 11.1%vs RHP 425 5.9% 0.0% 10.8% 25

7 Edouard Julien 48 D +700 COOL 82 0.098 91.4 8.9% 10.7%vs RHP 389 2.8% 0.0% 10.8% 16

8 Troy Johnston 46 D +700 WARM 88 0.140 89.4 5.4% 8.3%vs RHP 415 1.5% 0.0% 11.1% 24

9 Tyler Freeman 40 D — COOL 133 0.084 87.9 3.7% 4.2%vs RHP 369 2.6% 0.0% 9.6% 30

vs COL Bullpen Proxy 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 76 B +192 · 2 0.240 93.6 16.3% 23.8% 404 19.5% 23.1% 32.3% 38

2 Max Muncy 68 C+ +280 COOL 9 0.234 90.2 13.5% 21.5% 409 18.3% 12.5% 19.2% 52

3 Freddie Freeman 62 C+ +370 COOL 23 0.202 90.7 11.2% 16.0% 398 14.8% 15.4% 15.5% 43

4 Mookie Betts 57 C +400 WARM 40 0.185 90.8 8.6% 12.5% 385 12.0% 23.1% 18.2% 45

5 Andy Pages 57 C +350 COOL 42 0.195 89.2 8.5% 14.8% 389 14.6% 7.7% 14.7% 39

6 Teoscar Hernandez 52 C +400 WARM 75 0.175 90.2 10.3% 18.5% 388 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 18

7 Kyle Tucker 45 D +425 · 119 0.131 88.8 5.4% 7.7% 399 5.8% 9.1% 8.9% 32

8 Alex Freeland 42 D — COOL 143 0.097 88.4 5.5% 9.1% 373 2.9% 0.0% 9.1% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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