2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs 1 Byron Buxton 7 HRs · 2 Shohei Ohtani 6 HRs · 3 TJ Rumfield 5 HRs · 4 Zach Neto 5 HRs · 5 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 6 Alec Burleson 5 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 5 HRs · 8 Nick Kurtz 5 HRs · 9 Paul Goldschmidt 5 HRs · 10 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 11 Bryan Reynolds 4 HRs · 12 Dominic Canzone 4 HRs
COL Bullpen Proxy COL
17 matchups scored · 2 game days
4 HRs Allowed
23.5% HR Rate (Pool)
13.7% Overall HR/FB
4.8 FIP
4.8 xFIP
+0.00 FIP-xFIP Gap
HR Vulnerability Snapshot Pool + today context
2.0
Pool HR/G ?Home runs allowed per tracked LongDong game day. Used when season HR/9 is unavailable.
13.7%
Overall HR/FB ?Pitcher's overall season HR-per-fly-ball rate. Matchup rows may show handedness splits such as vs LHH or vs RHH.
62th pctile
0.0%
Barrel% Allowed ?Percentage of contact against this pitcher classified as barrels (perfect EV+LA). >12% elite-bad, <5% elite-good.
60.0%
Hard-Hit% Allowed ?% of batted balls hit ≥95 mph against this pitcher. >45% elite homer-prone, <33% elite homer-resistant.
·
FB% ?Fly-ball rate (% of batted balls that are fly balls). >45% extreme fly-ball pitcher — gives up many HRs. <30% ground-ball pitcher — HR-resistant.
4.8
FIP ?Fielding Independent Pitching. >5.0 elite-bad, 4.0–5.0 above avg, <3.5 elite-good. Isolates pitcher's HR/K/BB skill from defense.
74th pctile
4.8
xFIP ?FIP with HR/FB normalised to league average. Better predictor of FUTURE HR rate than FIP.
+0.00
FIP − xFIP ?Positive gap = pitcher has been UNLUCKY with HRs (regression coming). Negative = lucky (regression up). >+0.5 elite regression candidate.
50th pctile
23.5%
Pool HR Rate ?% of LongDong scored matchups against this pitcher that resulted in a HR. Internal benchmark.
17
Pool Matchups
4
HRs Allowed (Pool)
5
Top-15 Matchups
2
HRs to Top-15
23.5%
HR Rate
Recent HR Splits
trend vs full-pool HR rate
Window Matchups Game Days HR HR Rate HR/Game Avg Max EV Avg HR EV Avg HR LA Avg HR Dist Trend
Last 7 17 2 4 23.5% 2.0 95.5mph 103.6mph 36.2° 417ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 15 17 2 4 23.5% 2.0 95.5mph 103.6mph 36.2° 417ft Flat +0.0pp
Last 30 17 2 4 23.5% 2.0 95.5mph 103.6mph 36.2° 417ft Flat +0.0pp
Batted-Ball Damage
15 tracked BBE from 17 pool matchups
95.5
108.9
9
0
103.6
36.2°
417
Date Batter Max EV HR EV HR LA HR Dist HR?
2026-06-17 Matt Shaw 102.4mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Michael Busch 102.1mph · · · ·
2026-06-17 Dansby Swanson 102.0mph 102.0mph 46° 384ft Yes
2026-06-17 Pete Crow-Armstrong 99.2mph 99.2mph 41° 364ft Yes
2026-06-12 Nick Kurtz 108.9mph 108.9mph 31° 471ft Yes
2026-06-12 Zack Gelof 104.7mph · · · ·
2026-06-12 Shea Langeliers 104.2mph 104.2mph 27° 450ft Yes
HRs Allowed Per Game Day
2 days · 4 total HRs
HRs Allowed
4 home runs against scored batters
Date Batter Rank Score Stadium EV Angle Dist
2026-06-17 Pete Crow-Armstrong #25 67 Wrigley Field 99.2mph 41.0° 364ft
2026-06-17 Dansby Swanson #180 33 Wrigley Field 102.0mph 46.0° 384ft
2026-06-12 Nick Kurtz #1 92 Las Vegas Ballpark 108.9mph 31.0° 471ft
2026-06-12 Shea Langeliers #3 83 Las Vegas Ballpark 104.2mph 27.0° 450ft
Quality of Contact
FanGraphs season stats
Barrel%
0.0%
0.0%
HardHit%
60.0%
60.0%
All Scored Matchups
17 matchups · newest first
Date Batter Rank Score Tier Form HR?
2026-06-17 Nico Hoerner #216 23 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Carson Kelly #182 33 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-17 Dansby Swanson #180 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD 💥
2026-06-17 Alex Bregman #179 33 ⚪ D ❄ COLD ·
2026-06-17 Matt Shaw #127 44 ⚪ D 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-17 Michael Busch #70 54 🟠 C ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-17 Seiya Suzuki #38 62 🔵 C+ 🔥 HOT ·
2026-06-17 Pete Crow-Armstrong #25 67 🔵 C+ ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-17 Ian Happ #14 72 🟡 B 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Jeff Mcneil #208 25 ⚪ D 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Lawrence Butler #126 43 ⚪ D ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Carlos Cortes #75 52 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Zack Gelof #45 59 🟠 C 📉 COOL ·
2026-06-12 Tyler Soderstrom #11 73 🟡 B ➖ NTRL ·
2026-06-12 Brent Rooker #6 79 🟡 B 📈 WARM ·
2026-06-12 Shea Langeliers #3 83 🟢 A ➖ NTRL 💥
2026-06-12 Nick Kurtz #1 92 🔥 A+ 📈 WARM 💥
Six home runs to freedom

COL Bullpen Proxy's full pitcher profile is waiting

Upgrade to see vulnerability signals, today’s threat breakdown, recent splits, batted-ball damage, and every scored matchup.

17 more waiting in the on-deck circle
LD 3.3.16 · build 501

The top 10 picks. Every morning.

Free daily home run predictions from the model, in your inbox before first pitch.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime. Just picks and results.