TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ NYM

Citi Field is live · 1.11×

KC @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+9 ↑

9:10p

+9 ↑

10:10p

+9 ↑

11:10p

the 8:10p window peaks +9

Best of game Juan Soto conv 35 · vs Cruz ⟷ Carter Jensen conv 26 · vs Scott → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Steven Cruz RHP · KC

leak 100

2.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Juan Soto +265 C+ ●●●●●

2 Mark Vientos — C ●●●●○

3 Carson Benge +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 95

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carter Jensen +350 C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Collins +700 D ●○○○○

3 Lane Thomas +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 47.5% · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Cruz Edge +265 0.263 · 92.8 · 12.8% 23.1% 47.5% F B O C+ 69

· KC Carter Jensen COOL vs Scott Edge +350 0.191 · 90.8 · 8.7% 27.3% 23.9% F B O C 53

· NYM Mark Vientos vs Cruz — 0.184 · 89.5 · 10.7% 28.6% 20.4% F B O C 56

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Cruz +400 0.171 · 90.4 · 13.6% 0.0% 20.2% F B O C 51

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Scott Edge +330 0.195 · 93.6 · 11.1% 0.0% 15.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Cruz Edge +500 0.144 · 89.6 · 9.6% 14.3% 13.4% F B O D 49

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Cruz Edge +700 0.141 · — · 9.1% 0.0% 22.2% F B O D 44

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Cruz +575 0.126 · 90.3 · 8.9% 14.3% 7.8% F B O D 46

· KC Isaac Collins vs Scott Edge +700 0.106 · 89.0 · 7.0% 10.0% 8.0% F B O D 38

· NYM Luis Torrens COOL vs Cruz — 0.104 · 88.2 · 6.9% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 41

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Scott +525 0.135 · 88.0 · 6.0% 9.1% 7.5% F B O D 41

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Cruz Edge +525 0.084 · 89.0 · 9.2% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 40

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Scott Edge +425 0.167 · 90.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 43

· KC Salvador Perez vs Scott +390 0.155 · 88.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 69.8% ← leak BRK 26.4% OFF 3.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Carter Jensen L Edge

10.1% 8.0% 8.8% 9.1% C 53 +350

Jac Caglianone L Edge

15.6% 16.4% 10.8% 15.0% C 52 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

110

Michael Massey L Edge

8.5% 5.4% 3.0% 6.8% D 43 +425

123

Salvador Perez R

13.9% 6.4% 11.4% 10.5% D 41 +390

125

Lane Thomas R

6.3% 0.0% 5.9% 5.0% D 41 +525

152

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.5% 8.3% 0.0% 5.8% D 38 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.8% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 82.4% BRK 16.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Juan Soto L Edge

18.0% 12.5% 14.3% C+ 69 +265

Mark Vientos R

10.2% 12.5% 10.4% C 56 —

Francisco Alvarez R

16.9% 14.5% 16.1% C 51 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carson Benge L Edge

7.8% 9.0% 8.0% D 49 +500

Bo Bichette R

5.1% 12.3% 6.9% D 46 +575

A.J. Ewing L Edge

10.6% 5.9% 7.3% D 44 +700

126

Luis Torrens R

4.6% 5.4% 4.2% D 41 —

130

Brett Baty L Edge

7.1% 11.9% 7.4% D 40 +525

Read the columns: no single family leads Cruz's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Soto Vientos Benge

Legend

attack side — vs Cruz fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Juan Soto +265 · 69

Carter Jensen +350 · 53

Mark Vientos — · 56

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 8 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

13 mph · slight_out

78°F

7:10p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:10p · peak

↑

12 mph · out

75°F

9:10p

↑

11 mph · out

72°F

10:10p

↑

10 mph · out

70°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 77°F, wind 8 mph NW (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Christian Scott · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen 53 C +350 COOL 48 0.191 90.8 8.7% 19.3%vs RHP 393 16.2% 27.3% 23.9% 29

2 Jac Caglianone 52 C +330 COOL 58 0.195 93.6 11.1% 26.5%vs RHP 418 12.5% 0.0% 15.7% 30

3 Michael Massey 43 D +425 COOL 110 0.167 90.5 7.4% 10.9%vs RHP 398 7.1% 0.0% 11.1% 26

4 Salvador Perez 41 D +390 · 123 0.155 88.9 8.8% 16.3%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 28

5 Lane Thomas 41 D +525 HOT 125 0.135 88.0 6.0% 16.7%vs RHP 412 13.2% 9.1% 7.5% 28

6 Isaac Collins 38 D +700 · 152 0.106 89.0 7.0% 5.9%vs RHP 390 5.3% 10.0% 8.0% 25

vs Steven Cruz · RHP 2.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.36 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 69 C+ +265 COOL 5 0.263 92.8 12.8% 31.1%vs RHP 399 21.1% 23.1% 47.5% 35

2 Mark Vientos 56 C — · 31 0.184 89.5 10.7% 17.6%vs RHP 409 13.8% 28.6% 20.4% 16

3 Francisco Alvarez 51 C +400 · 60 0.171 90.4 13.6% 23.3%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 27

4 Carson Benge 49 D +500 COOL 73 0.144 89.6 9.6% 13.0%vs RHP 399 10.4% 14.3% 13.4% 48

5 Bo Bichette 46 D +575 · 89 0.126 90.3 8.9% 10.9%vs RHP 385 10.0% 14.3% 7.8% 45

6 A.J. Ewing 44 D +700 WARM 96 0.141 — 9.1% 13.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 38

7 Luis Torrens 41 D — COOL 126 0.104 88.2 6.9% 7.1%vs RHP 394 6.1% 10.0% 7.5% 20

8 Brett Baty 40 D +525 HOT 130 0.084 89.0 9.2% 7.9%vs RHP 415 3.5% 0.0% 11.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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