TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ CIN

Great American Ball Park is live · 1.11×

PHI @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

conditions build late — the 10:10p window peaks +1

Best of game Bryce Harper conv 31 · vs Burns ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 24 · vs Proxy → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Chase Burns RHP · CIN

leak 95

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Harper +280 C+ ●●●●●

2 Kyle Schwarber +198 C+ ●●●●○

3 Brandon Marsh +370 C ●●●●○

FADE PHI Bullpen Proxy

leak 70

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +320 C ●●●●○

2 Spencer Steer +400 C ●●●○○

3 Elly De La Cruz +305 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Burns Edge +280 0.248 · 90.4 · 10.7% 23.1% 38.8% F B O C+ 61

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Burns Edge +198 0.312 · 93.5 · 13.4% 16.7% 38.0% F B O C+ 69

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Burns Edge +370 0.195 · 89.7 · 9.6% 25.0% 27.0% F B O C 52

· — Sal Stewart vs Proxy +320 0.210 · 91.0 · 14.3% 25.0% 23.2% F B O C 59

· — Spencer Steer COOL vs Proxy +400 0.191 · 89.7 · 12.7% 22.2% 18.6% F B O C 54

· — Elly De La Cruz vs Proxy +305 0.213 · 94.2 · 14.2% 8.3% 15.4% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Burns +500 0.123 · 88.8 · 7.6% 23.1% 9.7% F B O D 40

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Burns +575 0.147 · 90.1 · 7.0% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 41

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Proxy +320 0.150 · 87.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 39

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs Proxy +330 0.236 · 88.9 · 8.8% 0.0% 16.3% F B O D 47

· — Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Proxy +500 0.205 · 88.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 14.7% F B O D 49

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Burns Edge +525 0.147 · 89.0 · 8.1% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 40

· — Tj Friedl vs Proxy +700 0.105 · 88.0 · 3.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 31

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 88.9 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 40

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Proxy +500 0.141 · 91.1 · 10.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Burns Edge +750 0.091 · 86.6 · 3.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 28

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Burns +525 0.125 · — · 7.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.0% ← leak BRK 36.9% OFF 6.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

19.1% 16.7% 28.0% 19.5% C+ 69 +198

Bryce Harper L Edge

9.4% 17.9% 9.4% 12.2% C+ 61 +280

Brandon Marsh L Edge

8.8% 16.2% 2.8% 10.0% C 52 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

122

Alec Bohm R

5.0% 4.5% 6.7% 5.1% D 41 +575

131

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.6% 5.6% 6.2% 6.8% D 40 +525

132

Trea Turner R

8.3% 4.4% 0.0% 6.3% D 40 +500

183

J.T. Realmuto R

5.2% 4.8% 9.1% 5.4% D 33 +525

205

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% D 28 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.0% usage) carries Burns's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for PHI Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner Stewart Steer

Legend

attack side — vs Burns fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Bryce Harper +280 · 61

Brandon Marsh +370 · 52

Sal Stewart +320 · 59

Spencer Steer +400 · 54

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph out 84°F open

-1

↑

3 mph · in

86°F

7:10p

↑

2 mph · cross

84°F

8:10p

↑

2 mph · cross

82°F

9:10p

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1 mph · cross

80°F

10:10p · peak

↑

1 mph · cross

78°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.11× 84°F, wind 3 mph S (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chase Burns · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +198 WARM 6 0.312 93.5 13.4% 45.5%vs RHP 404 26.2% 16.7% 38.0% 25

2 Bryce Harper 61 C+ +280 · 16 0.248 90.4 10.7% 42.5%vs RHP 400 20.7% 23.1% 38.8% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 52 C +370 WARM 55 0.195 89.7 9.6% 27.3%vs RHP 392 14.5% 25.0% 27.0% 34

4 Alec Bohm 41 D +575 WARM 122 0.147 90.1 7.0% 20.6%vs RHP 394 11.9% 16.7% 9.2% 37

5 Bryson Stott 40 D +525 · 131 0.147 89.0 8.1% 10.0%vs RHP 393 8.5% 0.0% 9.7% 38

6 Trea Turner 40 D +500 WARM 132 0.123 88.8 7.6% 17.0%vs RHP 393 11.6% 23.1% 9.7% 45

7 J.T. Realmuto 33 D +525 WARM 183 0.125 — 7.1% 19.4%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 27

8 Justin Crawford 28 D +750 COOL 205 0.091 86.6 3.1% 6.5%vs RHP 382 3.1% 0.0% 8.2% 37

vs PHI Bullpen Proxy 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 59 C +320 · 32 0.210 91.0 14.3% 19.1% 393 12.0% 25.0% 23.2% 38

2 Elly De La Cruz 57 C +305 · 41 0.213 94.2 14.2% 22.6% 395 14.5% 8.3% 15.4% 34

3 Spencer Steer 54 C +400 COOL 64 0.191 89.7 12.7% 16.9% 393 13.4% 22.2% 18.6% 28

4 Nathaniel Lowe 49 D +500 COOL 91 0.205 88.5 10.5% 22.0% 398 13.7% 0.0% 14.7% 10

5 Jj Bleday 47 D +330 COOL 104 0.236 88.9 8.8% 19.1% 385 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 30

6 Tyler Stephenson 43 D +500 WARM 137 0.141 91.1 10.5% 11.1% 384 7.1% 0.0% 8.8% 21

7 Matt Mclain 40 D — COOL 158 0.146 88.9 9.1% 10.5% 398 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 13

8 Eugenio Suarez 39 D +320 · 168 0.150 87.3 7.9% 14.8% 384 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 23

9 Tj Friedl 31 D +700 WARM 208 0.105 88.0 3.0% 6.7% 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 16

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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