TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ BAL

Playable air · 1.08×

CHC @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 4 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:35p

+2 ↑

7:35p

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8:35p

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9:35p

+4 ↑

10:35p

conditions build late — the 10:35p window peaks +4

Best of game Dansby Swanson conv 30 · vs Kremer ⟷ Samuel Basallo conv 32 · vs Rea → edge: Samuel Basallo

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 99

2.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dansby Swanson +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Michael Busch +320 C ●●●●○

3 Seiya Suzuki +350 C ●●●●○

FADE Colin Rea RHP · CHC

leak 72

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Samuel Basallo +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Pete Alonso +280 C+ ●●○○○

3 Leody Taveras — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Samuel Basallo: 12.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Samuel Basallo ✶ vs Rea Edge +305 0.210 · 91.3 · 11.3% 37.5% 27.4% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Dansby Swanson HOT vs Kremer +400 0.206 · 89.9 · 9.9% 30.8% 29.8% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Michael Busch vs Kremer Edge +320 0.161 · 88.3 · 11.4% 30.8% 21.9% F B O C 57

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Kremer +350 0.184 · 89.3 · 10.2% 23.1% 27.3% F B O C 57

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Kremer Edge +255 0.230 · 90.4 · 11.3% 15.4% 25.8% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Ian Happ vs Kremer Edge +320 0.225 · 89.6 · 12.6% 7.7% 21.1% F B O C+ 63

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Rea +280 0.213 · 94.1 · 11.2% 9.1% 17.0% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Rea Edge +290 0.189 · 89.4 · 8.8% 0.0% 12.8% F B O C 53

· BAL Adley Rutschman COOL vs Rea Edge +400 0.191 · 89.6 · 9.1% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 51

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Rea — 0.175 · 92.0 · 9.9% 0.0% 11.2% F B O C 52

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Rea Edge +370 0.153 · 86.4 · 11.0% 0.0% 11.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Rea Edge — 0.129 · 87.2 · 6.8% 14.3% 8.9% F B O D 42

· CHC Alex Bregman COOL vs Kremer +500 0.132 · 87.7 · 7.3% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 44

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Kremer +525 0.110 · 88.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 43

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Kremer +850 0.097 · 85.7 · 3.3% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 34

· BAL Blaze Alexander vs Rea +575 0.120 · 92.0 · 8.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 44

· BAL Taylor Ward COOL vs Rea +400 0.099 · 89.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 41

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

OFF 39.4% FB 38.2% BRK 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.2% 9.4% 13.0% 10.6% C+ 63 +255

Ian Happ S Edge

3.7% 16.3% 20.8% 14.1% C+ 63 +320

Dansby Swanson R

14.8% 8.7% 4.5% 8.2% C+ 60 +400

Seiya Suzuki R

0.0% 9.7% 8.7% 8.7% C 57 +350

Michael Busch L Edge

3.6% 13.0% 7.5% 10.7% C 57 +320

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

100

Alex Bregman R

6.9% 4.8% 6.8% 5.5% D 44 +500

111

Carson Kelly R

6.7% 7.6% 4.0% 6.5% D 43 +525

176

Nico Hoerner R

0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 1.2% D 34 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Kremer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.2% ← leak BRK 25.3% OFF 17.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.9% 9.1% 9.5% 12.4% C+ 62 +305

Pete Alonso R

16.0% 6.6% 13.3% 12.9% C+ 61 +280

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

8.1% 6.9% 7.8% 7.7% C 53 +290

Coby Mayo R

8.3% 9.8% 11.1% 9.2% C 52 —

Adley Rutschman S Edge

12.1% 2.2% 4.8% 8.2% C 51 +400

Colton Cowser L Edge

14.9% 16.7% 2.9% 12.2% C 51 +370

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

102

Blaze Alexander R

7.4% 6.0% 0.0% 6.3% D 44 +575

118

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.7% 10.5% 0.0% 4.9% D 42 —

124

Taylor Ward R

8.9% 0.0% 3.0% 5.8% D 41 +400

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.2% usage) carries Rea's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Swanson Suzuki Busch Basallo Alonso

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Samuel Basallo +305 · 62

Dansby Swanson +400 · 60

Michael Busch +320 · 57

Seiya Suzuki +350 · 57

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 4 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

6:35p

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

7:35p

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

8:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

80°F

9:35p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

79°F

10:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 77°F, wind 4 mph SSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 63 C+ +255 COOL 12 0.230 90.4 11.3% 21.9%vs RHP 392 19.8% 15.4% 25.8% 32

2 Ian Happ 63 C+ +320 · 13 0.225 89.6 12.6% 26.9%vs RHP 402 20.0% 7.7% 21.1% 27

3 Dansby Swanson 60 C+ +400 HOT 19 0.206 89.9 9.9% 20.4%vs RHP 403 14.6% 30.8% 29.8% 39

4 Seiya Suzuki 57 C +350 WARM 26 0.184 89.3 10.2% 22.7%vs RHP 407 12.9% 23.1% 27.3% 36

5 Michael Busch 57 C +320 · 28 0.161 88.3 11.4% 14.3%vs RHP 403 13.0% 30.8% 21.9% 33

6 Alex Bregman 44 D +500 COOL 100 0.132 87.7 7.3% 15.7%vs RHP 398 6.7% 8.3% 10.7% 39

7 Carson Kelly 43 D +525 COOL 111 0.110 88.5 8.5% 5.0%vs RHP 421 5.3% 0.0% 8.9% 20

8 Nico Hoerner 34 D +850 COOL 176 0.097 85.7 3.3% 3.9%vs RHP 383 4.4% 0.0% 8.8% 45

vs Colin Rea · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Samuel Basallo ✶ 62 C+ +305 WARM 15 0.210 91.3 11.3% 28.3%vs RHP 399 15.6% 37.5% 27.4% 24

2 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +280 · 17 0.213 94.1 11.2% 29.1%vs RHP 399 18.9% 9.1% 17.0% 25

3 Gunnar Henderson 53 C +290 COOL 52 0.189 89.4 8.8% 16.4%vs RHP 388 17.0% 0.0% 12.8% 39

4 Coby Mayo 52 C — WARM 59 0.175 92.0 9.9% 10.7%vs RHP 403 14.1% 0.0% 11.2% 12

5 Adley Rutschman 51 C +400 COOL 62 0.191 89.6 9.1% 13.2%vs RHP 400 10.2% 0.0% 12.3% 23

6 Colton Cowser 51 C +370 WARM 63 0.153 86.4 11.0% 22.2%vs RHP 417 15.9% 0.0% 11.1% 11

7 Blaze Alexander 44 D +575 · 102 0.120 92.0 8.2% 10.5%vs RHP 392 5.2% 0.0% 8.4% 26

8 Leody Taveras 42 D — COOL 118 0.129 87.2 6.8% 8.8%vs RHP 410 1.6% 14.3% 8.9% 18

9 Taylor Ward 41 D +400 COOL 124 0.099 89.5 7.8% 5.8%vs RHP 393 5.5% 0.0% 7.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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