TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ TB

Neutral air · 1.04×

NYY @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Ben Rice conv 35 · vs McClanahan ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 48 · vs Cole → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Shane McClanahan LHP · TB

leak 80

0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●●

2 Max Schuemann — C ●●●●○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●●○○

FADE Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 80

1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — B ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●●●○

3 Ben Williamson — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 61.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Cole — 0.261 · 93.4 · 11.5% 61.5% 35.3% F B O B 72

· NYY Ben Rice vs McClanahan — 0.300 · 92.0 · 11.8% 33.3% 36.1% F B O C+ 69

· NYY Max Schuemann vs McClanahan Edge — 0.265 · 89.2 · 12.7% 33.3% 22.8% F B O C 54

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs McClanahan Edge — 0.234 · 86.8 · 10.4% 11.1% 28.4% F B O C 55

· NYY Amed Rosario vs McClanahan Edge — 0.222 · 90.7 · 10.4% 14.3% 22.1% F B O C 52

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.169 · 90.7 · 9.8% 7.7% 12.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Cole Edge — 0.134 · 88.4 · 6.2% 36.4% 16.8% F B O D 46

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Cole — 0.098 · 87.8 · 3.8% 20.0% 10.7% F B O D 36

· TB Nick Fortes vs Cole — 0.084 · 86.2 · 4.1% 20.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· NYY Jose Caballero vs McClanahan Edge — 0.153 · 84.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 18.5% F B O D 37

· NYY Jasson Dominguez vs McClanahan Edge — 0.208 · 89.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 13.4% F B O D 41

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Cole — 0.162 · 90.8 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Cole — 0.172 · 85.1 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 40

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs McClanahan — 0.167 · 89.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 43

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs McClanahan — 0.081 · 88.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 35

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Cole Edge — 0.060 · 84.2 · — 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 22

· NYY Anthony Volpe COOL vs McClanahan Edge — 0.086 · 88.5 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 34

· TB Taylor Walls vs Cole Edge — 0.072 · 85.3 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 37.7% BRK 33.7% OFF 28.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ben Rice L

18.5% 9.7% 12.8% 14.9% C+ 69 —

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

15.0% 6.2% 10.7% 11.9% C 55 —

Max Schuemann R Edge

40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% C 54 —

Amed Rosario R Edge

8.8% 12.5% 10.7% 10.0% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

123

Cody Bellinger L

3.5% 13.6% 9.4% 6.7% D 43 —

139

Jasson Dominguez S Edge

1.9% 13.3% 6.9% 5.2% D 41 —

172

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 37 —

188

Austin Wells L

8.4% 3.7% 0.0% 6.3% D 35 —

200

Anthony Volpe R Edge

6.0% 0.0% 11.1% 4.3% D 34 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McClanahan's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.2% ← leak BRK 32.8% OFF 15.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.2% 12.4% 5.9% 13.6% B 72 —

Neutral · 1

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.6% 13.2% 6.5% 9.8% C 50 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.7% 0.0% 10.0% 3.8% D 46 —

116

Yandy Diaz R

5.2% 12.8% 2.8% 7.4% D 43 —

147

Jonny Deluca R

3.8% 5.9% 0.0% 3.8% D 40 —

179

Ben Williamson R

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% D 36 —

196

Nick Fortes R

3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 34 —

204

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% D 33 —

244

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.2% usage) carries Cole's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Schuemann Rosario Caminero Mullins Williamson Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs McClanahan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero — · 72

Ben Rice — · 69

Max Schuemann — · 54

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane McClanahan · LHP 0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.43 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 69 C+ — · 8 0.300 92.0 11.8% 43.8%vs LHP 389 26.8% 33.3% 36.1% 36

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C — · 37 0.234 86.8 10.4% 36.4%vs LHP 391 17.6% 11.1% 28.4% 23

3 Max Schuemann 54 C — WARM 43 0.265 89.2 12.7% 12.5%vs LHP 415 20.0% 33.3% 22.8% 9

4 Amed Rosario 52 C — · 58 0.222 90.7 10.4% 17.4%vs LHP 392 13.0% 14.3% 22.1% 18

5 Cody Bellinger 43 D — COOL 123 0.167 89.0 8.0% 16.7%vs LHP 379 10.8% 0.0% 11.2% 32

6 Jasson Dominguez 41 D — WARM 139 0.208 89.6 6.5% 11.1%vs LHP 361 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 34

7 Jose Caballero 37 D — WARM 172 0.153 84.2 6.2% 36.4%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 18.5% 24

8 Austin Wells 35 D — COOL 188 0.081 88.8 7.2% 7.7%vs LHP 377 6.9% 0.0% 7.7% 18

9 Anthony Volpe 34 D — COOL 200 0.086 88.5 6.2% 11.1%vs LHP 409 2.2% 0.0% 7.1% 23

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 72 B — WARM 3 0.261 93.4 11.5% 41.2%vs RHP 407 26.7% 61.5% 35.3% 37

2 Jonathan Aranda 50 C — COOL 69 0.169 90.7 9.8% 20.6%vs RHP 391 13.1% 7.7% 12.7% 39

3 Cedric Mullins 46 D — WARM 98 0.134 88.4 6.2% 20.0%vs RHP 393 12.9% 36.4% 16.8% 29

4 Yandy Diaz 43 D — COOL 116 0.162 90.8 8.3% 25.0%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 37

5 Jonny Deluca 40 D — COOL 147 0.172 85.1 6.4% 18.8%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 21

6 Ben Williamson 36 D — COOL 179 0.098 87.8 3.8% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.3% 20.0% 10.7% 15

7 Nick Fortes 34 D — WARM 196 0.084 86.2 4.1% 10.5%vs RHP 400 2.2% 20.0% 8.6% 19

8 Taylor Walls 33 D — WARM 204 0.072 85.3 5.6% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 31

9 Chandler Simpson 22 D — COOL 244 0.060 84.2 — 4.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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