TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.71×

TOR @ SF

Oracle Park · 3:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.79× Wind 9 mph slight_out 54°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

12:45p

+2 ↑

1:45p

+2 ↑

2:45p

+3 ↑

3:45p

+3 ↑

4:45p

conditions build late — the 3:45p window peaks +3

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 30 · vs Cease ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 23 · vs Webb → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 81

0.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +475 D ●●●●●

2 Heliot Ramos +575 D ●●●●○

3 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●●○○○

FADE Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 43

0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +575 D ●●●○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●●○○○

3 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 15 long shots

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Cease Edge +475 0.230 · 92.1 · 6.9% 38.5% 22.1% F B O D 46

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Cease +575 0.217 · 92.5 · 8.1% 33.3% 16.1% F B O D 43

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Webb +575 0.218 · 91.5 · 9.3% 25.0% 20.2% F B O D 48

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Cease Edge +575 0.196 · 92.1 · 7.0% 16.7% 10.2% F B O D 38

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Webb Edge — 0.106 · 86.6 · 2.8% 15.4% 6.2% F B O D 25

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Cease Edge — 0.139 · 85.5 · 2.9% 11.1% 9.5% F B O D 26

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Cease +575 0.211 · 89.7 · 6.9% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 39

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Cease +625 0.197 · 88.6 · 5.9% 7.7% 9.3% F B O D 36

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Webb Edge — 0.174 · 88.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 34

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Webb +750 0.161 · 88.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs Webb Edge +700 0.153 · 85.9 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 31

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Cease Edge +1000 0.139 · 87.2 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 24

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Webb Edge — 0.136 · 86.4 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Webb — 0.132 · 85.3 · 3.6% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 26

· SF Luis Arraez vs Cease Edge — 0.130 · 87.2 · 1.5% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 19

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.8% ← leak OFF 24.0% BRK 19.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.8% 17.6% 8.3% 14.5% D 48 +575

182

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.9% 13.6% 21.1% 8.1% D 34 —

189

George Springer R

9.0% 10.0% 4.7% 7.7% D 33 +750

198

Daulton Varsho L Edge

8.7% 7.1% 1.6% 6.3% D 31 +700

213

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% D 26 —

216

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.3% 6.2% 2.9% 3.6% D 25 —

217

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 3.2% 2.6% 1.2% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.8% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.5% ← leak BRK 43.0% OFF 11.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.8% 9.7% 10.6% 12.7% D 46 +475

114

Heliot Ramos R

13.7% 15.7% 14.3% 14.5% D 43 +575

142

Casey Schmitt R

9.0% 17.3% 19.0% 12.2% D 39 +575

154

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

14.9% 0.0% 20.0% 12.5% D 38 +575

167

Willy Adames R

8.2% 8.5% 15.0% 8.9% D 36 +625

212

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.3% 2.6% 0.0% 2.0% D 26 —

220

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.7% 2.2% 0.0% 2.8% D 24 +1000

226

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.3% 0.6% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.5% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Devers Ramos Eldridge

Legend

attack side — vs Cease fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Rafael Devers +475 · 46

Kazuma Okamoto +575 · 48

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 12:45p · roof open

Park 0.79× Wind 9 mph slight_out 54°F open

↑

10 mph · out

58°F

12:45p

↑

12 mph · out

60°F

1:45p

↑

13 mph · out

61°F

2:45p

↑

14 mph · out

62°F

3:45p · peak

↑

15 mph · slight_out

63°F

4:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.71× 54°F, wind 9 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 48 D +575 COOL 83 0.218 91.5 9.3% 30.4%vs RHP 401 19.4% 25.0% 20.2% 33

2 Brandon Valenzuela 34 D — COOL 182 0.174 88.7 6.8% 21.7%vs RHP 397 10.3% 0.0% 9.0% 9

3 George Springer 33 D +750 COOL 189 0.161 88.2 6.6% 20.6%vs RHP 392 9.2% 0.0% 8.0% 15

4 Daulton Varsho 31 D +700 COOL 198 0.153 85.9 6.1% 13.6%vs RHP 386 8.1% 0.0% 7.1% 28

5 Ernie Clement 26 D — COOL 213 0.132 85.3 3.6% 7.1%vs RHP 374 8.2% 0.0% 5.4% 44

6 Andres Gimenez 25 D — COOL 216 0.136 86.4 4.6% 12.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 23

7 Nathan Lukes 25 D — WARM 217 0.106 86.6 2.8% 15.4%vs RHP 378 5.6% 15.4% 6.2% 41

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.28 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 46 D +475 WARM 90 0.230 92.1 6.9% 26.8%vs RHP 408 16.9% 38.5% 22.1% 37

2 Heliot Ramos 43 D +575 WARM 114 0.217 92.5 8.1% 18.5%vs RHP 404 13.0% 33.3% 16.1% 29

3 Casey Schmitt 39 D +575 · 142 0.211 89.7 6.9% 21.5%vs RHP 394 16.3% 8.3% 9.6% 40

4 Bryce Eldridge 38 D +575 · 154 0.196 92.1 7.0% 18.5%vs RHP 398 20.0% 16.7% 10.2% 29

5 Willy Adames 36 D +625 COOL 167 0.197 88.6 5.9% 19.6%vs RHP 389 13.8% 7.7% 9.3% 19

6 Drew Gilbert 26 D — COOL 212 0.139 85.5 2.9% 16.7%vs RHP 398 4.4% 11.1% 9.5% 15

7 Jung Hoo Lee 24 D +1000 COOL 220 0.139 87.2 3.1% 9.3%vs RHP 378 4.9% 0.0% 6.3% 43

8 Luis Arraez 19 D — WARM 226 0.130 87.2 1.5% 3.8%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 43

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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