TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ MIA

Playable air · 1.07×

SEA @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Dominic Canzone conv 28 · vs Phillips ⟷ Owen Caissie conv 26 · vs Kirby → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Tyler Phillips RHP · MIA

leak 86

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dominic Canzone +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Young +700 D ●●●○○

3 Randy Arozarena +500 C ●●○○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 28

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Owen Caissie +500 C ●●●●○

2 Otto Lopez +850 D ●●●●○

3 Kyle Stowers +350 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: Match 34.1% · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ vs Phillips Edge +390 0.284 · 93.0 · 11.6% 22.2% 34.1% F B O C+ 67

· MIA Owen Caissie HOT vs Kirby Edge +500 0.204 · 91.6 · 10.2% 27.3% 24.5% F B O C 56

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Kirby Edge +350 0.225 · 91.5 · 8.8% 18.2% 25.9% F B O C 54

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Phillips +500 0.169 · 91.2 · 8.2% 16.7% 13.9% F B O C 50

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Phillips Edge +700 0.212 · 86.3 · 7.2% 10.0% 19.2% F B O C 51

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Phillips Edge +390 0.233 · 90.9 · 12.0% 0.0% 19.8% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Kirby +850 0.170 · 89.6 · 7.0% 33.3% 18.4% F B O D 48

· SEA Cole Young vs Phillips Edge +700 0.144 · 88.2 · 6.7% 16.7% 16.4% F B O D 46

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Kirby — 0.219 · 92.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 26.8% F B O D 48

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Kirby — 0.135 · 87.6 · 3.2% 11.1% 7.5% F B O D 35

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Phillips Edge +265 0.147 · 88.0 · 9.8% 8.3% 10.1% F B O D 49

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Kirby Edge +850 0.101 · 86.6 · 4.8% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 34

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Kirby Edge +750 0.168 · 85.3 · 5.1% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 42

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Phillips Edge +850 0.142 · — · 7.8% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 41

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Phillips Edge +525 0.107 · 87.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 39

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Kirby Edge +1000 0.126 · 87.0 · 5.5% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 40.9% FB 34.4% OFF 23.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dominic Canzone L Edge

19.4% 18.3% 8.5% 15.8% C+ 67 +390

Luke Raley L Edge

16.1% 20.0% 7.4% 16.8% C 59 +390

Colt Emerson L Edge

4.2% 7.3% 5.9% 6.1% C 51 +700

Randy Arozarena R

7.8% 9.2% 5.3% 8.1% C 50 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.1% 11.1% 12.1% 11.3% D 49 +265

Cole Young L Edge

11.1% 6.1% 0.0% 6.2% D 46 +700

120

J.P. Crawford L Edge

8.7% 5.4% 13.0% 7.1% D 41 +850

140

Josh Naylor L Edge

8.2% 4.4% 2.1% 4.8% D 39 +525

Read the columns: no single family leads Phillips's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 39.6% OFF 7.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.5% 7.7% 21.4% 15.4% C 56 +500

Kyle Stowers L Edge

14.0% 12.5% 3.2% 11.6% C 54 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

11.0% 8.7% 8.3% 10.0% D 48 —

Otto Lopez R

10.6% 4.5% 2.3% 7.3% D 48 +850

117

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 3.8% D 42 +750

166

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.6% 3.1% 1.9% 4.4% D 36 +1000

172

Javier Sanoja R

0.9% 3.1% 0.0% 1.5% D 35 —

181

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.2% 0.0% 8.3% 3.4% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries Kirby's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Emerson Arozarena Young Caissie Stowers Hernández Lopez

Legend

attack side — vs Phillips fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Dominic Canzone +390 · 67

Owen Caissie +500 · 56

Otto Lopez +850 · 48

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Phillips · RHP 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 67 C+ +390 · 8 0.284 93.0 11.6% 30.9%vs RHP 399 17.4% 22.2% 34.1% 21

2 Luke Raley 59 C +390 COOL 22 0.233 90.9 12.0% 34.2%vs RHP 385 15.4% 0.0% 19.8% 16

3 Colt Emerson 51 C +700 WARM 61 0.212 86.3 7.2% 41.7%vs RHP 369 15.4% 10.0% 19.2% 22

4 Randy Arozarena 50 C +500 COOL 66 0.169 91.2 8.2% 22.9%vs RHP 393 10.0% 16.7% 13.9% 33

5 Cal Raleigh 49 D +265 WARM 74 0.147 88.0 9.8% 14.8%vs RHP 390 13.2% 8.3% 10.1% 25

6 Cole Young 46 D +700 · 87 0.144 88.2 6.7% 13.5%vs RHP 390 10.3% 16.7% 16.4% 33

7 J.P. Crawford 41 D +850 COOL 120 0.142 — 7.8% 26.5%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 31

8 Josh Naylor 39 D +525 COOL 140 0.107 87.5 6.5% 13.5%vs RHP 390 8.5% 0.0% 8.8% 43

vs George Kirby · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 56 C +500 HOT 30 0.204 91.6 10.2% 28.2%vs RHP 396 16.1% 27.3% 24.5% 16

2 Kyle Stowers 54 C +350 HOT 38 0.225 91.5 8.8% 24.4%vs RHP 395 11.1% 18.2% 25.9% 28

3 Heriberto Hernández 48 D — WARM 76 0.219 92.2 8.2% 23.1%vs RHP 413 0.0% 0.0% 26.8% 28

4 Otto Lopez 48 D +850 WARM 77 0.170 89.6 7.0% 13.2%vs RHP 402 9.0% 33.3% 18.4% 47

5 Liam Hicks 42 D +750 COOL 117 0.168 85.3 5.1% 23.5%vs RHP 376 16.2% 0.0% 11.4% 32

6 Xavier Edwards 36 D +1000 COOL 166 0.126 87.0 5.5% 3.9%vs RHP 396 5.7% 0.0% 6.7% 41

7 Javier Sanoja 35 D — WARM 172 0.135 87.6 3.2% 4.8%vs RHP 385 5.5% 11.1% 7.5% 35

8 Jakob Marsee 34 D +850 · 181 0.101 86.6 4.8% 8.7%vs RHP 379 6.9% 8.3% 7.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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