TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ WSH

Playable air · 1.06×

HOU @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:45p

+3 ↑

7:45p

+3 ↑

8:45p

+3 ↑

9:45p

+2 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 7:45p at +3

Best of game James Wood conv 37 · vs Arrighetti ⟷ Christian Walker conv 21 · vs Griffin → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Spencer Arrighetti RHP · HOU

leak 85

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood +265 B ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +400 C ●●●●○

3 Cj Abrams +370 C ●●○○○

FADE Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 78

1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · stingy — thin edge

1 Christian Walker +350 C ●●●○○

2 Brice Matthews +500 D ●●●○○

3 Yainer Diaz +525 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +265 0.263 · 95.2 · 13.0% 38.5% 34.6% F B O B 70

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Arrighetti +400 0.242 · 88.4 · 9.1% 27.3% 28.3% F B O C 58

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Griffin Edge +350 0.238 · 89.8 · 10.2% 16.7% 24.7% F B O C 58

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Griffin +245 0.308 · 94.8 · 13.8% 0.0% 32.6% F B O C+ 63

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Arrighetti Edge +370 0.228 · 89.9 · 8.6% 0.0% 24.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Brice Matthews COOL vs Griffin Edge +500 0.139 · 87.4 · 9.5% 20.0% 18.4% F B O D 45

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Griffin Edge +525 0.147 · 87.8 · 7.3% 22.2% 15.7% F B O D 43

· HOU Cam Smith vs Griffin Edge +500 0.156 · 89.4 · 10.9% 16.7% 18.8% F B O D 49

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Griffin Edge +400 0.165 · 86.8 · 7.9% 15.4% 9.2% F B O D 44

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Arrighetti Edge +525 0.163 · 87.7 · 7.3% 8.3% 11.2% F B O D 43

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Griffin Edge +475 0.156 · 85.8 · 7.7% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 38

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Arrighetti Edge +525 0.181 · 89.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 43

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Arrighetti +950 0.144 · 88.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Vazquez vs Griffin Edge — 0.106 · 86.0 · 3.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 31

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Arrighetti Edge — 0.100 · 83.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 34

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Arrighetti Edge — 0.050 · 85.0 · 1.9% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.1% ← leak BRK 25.0% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L

18.8% 24.4% 11.5% 19.0% C+ 63 +245

Christian Walker R Edge

8.8% 12.3% 16.0% 10.6% C 58 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cam Smith R Edge

9.9% 16.3% 20.0% 12.4% D 49 +500

Brice Matthews R Edge

14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% D 45 +500

Isaac Paredes R Edge

7.5% 4.8% 2.9% 6.2% D 44 +400

106

Yainer Diaz R Edge

10.9% 2.1% 0.0% 6.1% D 43 +525

144

Jose Altuve R Edge

6.8% 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% D 38 +475

194

Christian Vazquez R Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.1% usage) carries Griffin's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.8% ← leak BRK 45.5% OFF 7.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

22.3% 25.8% 14.8% 22.4% B 70 +265

Neutral · 2

Curtis Mead R

13.0% 10.3% 3.6% 10.8% C 58 +400

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.0% 7.8% 10.0% 9.7% C 53 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

107

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.7% 0.0% 3.3% 5.3% D 43 +525

108

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.2% 9.9% 4.3% 7.4% D 43 +525

128

Jacob Young R

7.0% 4.9% 4.0% 6.1% D 40 +950

174

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 4.1% D 34 —

218

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.8% usage) carries Arrighetti's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Smith Matthews Diaz Wood Mead

Legend

attack side — vs Arrighetti fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

James Wood +265 · 70

Curtis Mead +400 · 58

Brice Matthews +500 · 45

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 3 mph out 74°F open

↑

5 mph · cross

82°F

6:45p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

82°F

7:45p · peak

↑

6 mph · slight_out

82°F

8:45p

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

9:45p

↑

6 mph · cross

81°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 74°F, wind 3 mph ESE (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.41 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 63 C+ +245 WARM 11 0.308 94.8 13.8% 30.8%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 32.6% 35

2 Christian Walker 58 C +350 COOL 25 0.238 89.8 10.2% 25.0%vs LHP 388 20.2% 16.7% 24.7% 32

3 Cam Smith 49 D +500 · 68 0.156 89.4 10.9% 20.0%vs LHP 415 11.8% 16.7% 18.8% 39

4 Brice Matthews 45 D +500 COOL 92 0.139 87.4 9.5% 36.4%vs LHP 403 11.6% 20.0% 18.4% 14

5 Isaac Paredes 44 D +400 · 98 0.165 86.8 7.9% 0.0%vs LHP 373 11.4% 15.4% 9.2% 46

6 Yainer Diaz 43 D +525 WARM 106 0.147 87.8 7.3% 16.1% 387 8.8% 22.2% 15.7% 28

7 Jose Altuve 38 D +475 COOL 144 0.156 85.8 7.7% 14.3%vs LHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 38

8 Christian Vazquez 31 D — WARM 194 0.106 86.0 3.9% 11.1%vs LHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 12

vs Spencer Arrighetti · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 70 B +265 COOL 4 0.263 95.2 13.0% 34.0%vs RHP 411 28.4% 38.5% 34.6% 34

2 Curtis Mead 58 C +400 · 24 0.242 88.4 9.1% 25.8%vs RHP 400 21.6% 27.3% 28.3% 38

3 Cj Abrams 53 C +370 COOL 43 0.228 89.9 8.6% 26.8%vs RHP 390 33.3% 0.0% 24.0% 30

4 Keibert Ruiz 43 D +525 · 107 0.181 89.3 6.4% 9.8%vs RHP 378 11.4% 0.0% 11.4% 23

5 Daylen Lile 43 D +525 · 108 0.163 87.7 7.3% 12.9%vs RHP 402 8.5% 8.3% 11.2% 39

6 Jacob Young 40 D +950 COOL 128 0.144 88.7 6.8% 18.9%vs RHP 391 8.1% 0.0% 9.8% 19

7 Jorbit Vivas 34 D — · 174 0.100 83.3 5.5% 11.1%vs RHP 392 4.2% 0.0% 8.4% 27

8 Nasim Nunez 24 D — WARM 218 0.050 85.0 1.9% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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