TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.91×

MIL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 2 mph in 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:45p

-3 ↑

7:45p

-3 ↑

8:45p

-3 ↑

9:45p

-3 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs McGreevy ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 29 · vs Harrison → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Michael McGreevy RHP · STL

leak 85

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +370 C ●●●●○

2 Joey Ortiz — D ●●●●○

3 Garrett Mitchell +575 D ●●●○○

FADE Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 85

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +370 C ●●●●●

2 Nathan Church +950 D ●●●○○

3 José Fermín +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 21.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· STL Jordan Walker vs Harrison Edge +370 0.240 · 93.9 · 9.7% 30.8% 28.1% F B O C 53

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs McGreevy Edge +370 0.259 · 92.6 · 11.0% 21.4% 27.5% F B O C 56

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs McGreevy Edge +500 0.235 · 92.4 · 11.5% 21.4% 18.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs McGreevy — 0.057 · 87.6 · 5.4% 40.0% 8.7% F B O D 28

· MIL Garrett Mitchell HOT vs McGreevy Edge +575 0.189 · 93.1 · 12.0% 23.1% 20.1% F B O D 49

· STL Nathan Church vs Harrison +950 0.159 · 85.9 · 7.6% 23.1% 13.7% F B O D 36

· MIL William Contreras vs McGreevy +625 0.142 · 90.4 · 8.0% 16.7% 8.4% F B O D 38

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs McGreevy Edge +750 0.188 · 90.7 · 8.5% 7.1% 11.7% F B O D 42

· STL José Fermín vs Harrison Edge +950 0.123 · 85.4 · 3.4% 10.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Harrison +750 0.190 · 91.8 · 8.4% 9.1% 7.2% F B O D 40

· MIL Christian Yelich vs McGreevy Edge +625 0.132 · 88.8 · 8.2% 7.1% 7.0% F B O D 35

· STL Masyn Winn vs Harrison Edge +850 0.090 · 87.6 · 4.7% 8.3% 5.4% F B O D 24

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Harrison Edge +500 0.150 · 89.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 29

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Harrison +700 0.143 · 90.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 30

· MIL Sal Frelick vs McGreevy Edge — 0.094 · 85.9 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.3% ← leak BRK 25.9% OFF 20.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.5% 13.7% 14.3% 14.3% C 56 +370

Jackson Chourio S Edge

15.2% 17.2% 4.3% 14.4% C 53 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

17.8% 13.7% 5.9% 15.2% D 49 +575

116

Brice Turang L Edge

9.1% 9.7% 2.4% 8.2% D 42 +750

151

William Contreras R

9.6% 7.4% 0.0% 8.2% D 38 +625

173

Christian Yelich L Edge

5.1% 9.5% 13.3% 7.1% D 35 +625

204

Joey Ortiz R

2.0% 6.2% 0.0% 3.1% D 28 —

215

Sal Frelick L Edge

1.2% 5.6% 0.0% 2.1% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.3% usage) carries McGreevy's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.8% ← leak BRK 29.6% OFF 9.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.0% 14.5% 18.5% 14.6% C 53 +370

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

136

Alec Burleson L

10.7% 12.6% 8.1% 10.7% D 40 +750

159

Nathan Church L

10.3% 6.8% 7.3% 8.4% D 36 +950

200

Jj Wetherholt L

11.4% 4.1% 2.6% 8.3% D 30 +700

201

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.2% 7.2% 9.1% 6.9% D 29 +500

211

José Fermín R Edge

1.3% 3.3% 0.0% 1.6% D 26 +950

219

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.9% 2.4% 3.6% 3.3% D 24 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.8% usage) carries Harrison's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Ortiz Walker Church

Legend

attack side — vs McGreevy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jordan Walker +370 · 53

Jake Bauers +370 · 56

Jackson Chourio +500 · 53

Garrett Mitchell +575 · 49

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 2 mph in 83°F open

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

87°F

6:45p · peak

-3

↑

3 mph · slight_out

86°F

7:45p

-3

↑

4 mph · slight_out

84°F

8:45p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

83°F

9:45p

-3

↑

6 mph · slight_out

81°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 83°F, wind 2 mph SW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael McGreevy · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.44 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 56 C +370 · 29 0.259 92.6 11.0% 35.6%vs RHP 403 19.4% 21.4% 27.5% 34

2 Jackson Chourio 53 C +500 · 51 0.235 92.4 11.5% 20.8%vs RHP 399 19.2% 21.4% 18.2% 45

3 Garrett Mitchell 49 D +575 HOT 71 0.189 93.1 12.0% 29.6%vs RHP 415 10.1% 23.1% 20.1% 27

4 Brice Turang 42 D +750 COOL 116 0.188 90.7 8.5% 27.9%vs RHP 407 10.2% 7.1% 11.7% 49

5 William Contreras 38 D +625 · 151 0.142 90.4 8.0% 19.2%vs RHP 419 10.8% 16.7% 8.4% 38

6 Christian Yelich 35 D +625 WARM 173 0.132 88.8 8.2% 14.8%vs RHP 402 7.3% 7.1% 7.0% 33

7 Joey Ortiz 28 D — WARM 204 0.057 87.6 5.4% 8.3%vs RHP 404 3.7% 40.0% 8.7% 29

8 Sal Frelick 25 D — WARM 215 0.094 85.9 4.5% 5.4%vs RHP 402 2.7% 0.0% 6.0% 35

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 53 C +370 WARM 46 0.240 93.9 9.7% 40.0%vs LHP 407 20.5% 30.8% 28.1% 27

2 Alec Burleson 40 D +750 COOL 136 0.190 91.8 8.4% 4.0%vs LHP 404 16.5% 9.1% 7.2% 34

3 Nathan Church 36 D +950 · 159 0.159 85.9 7.6% 25.0%vs LHP 388 10.2% 23.1% 13.7% 35

4 Jj Wetherholt 30 D +700 · 200 0.143 90.1 6.9% 10.0%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 45

5 Ivan Herrera 29 D +500 COOL 201 0.150 89.5 6.4% 31.2%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 35

6 José Fermín 26 D +950 WARM 211 0.123 85.4 3.4% 7.7%vs LHP 377 3.6% 10.0% 6.3% 32

7 Masyn Winn 24 D +850 · 219 0.090 87.6 4.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 4.8% 8.3% 5.4% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.