TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.88×

AZ @ SD

Petco Park · 10:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 5 mph cross 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

7:10p

-9 ↑

8:10p

-8 ↑

9:10p

-8 ↑

10:10p

-7 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks -7

Best of game Manny Machado conv 28 · vs Cabrera ⟷ Ketel Marte conv 29 · vs King → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Jose Cabrera RHP · MIL

leak 89

2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado +370 C ●●●●○

2 Ty France +525 D ●●●○○

3 Gavin Sheets +400 D ●●○○○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 63

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ketel Marte +320 C ●●●●○

2 Nolan Arenado +700 D ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: Match 24.5% · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Ketel Marte vs King Edge +320 0.216 · 91.6 · 9.8% 38.5% 19.6% F B O C 52

· — Manny Machado ✶ vs Cabrera +370 0.213 · 90.0 · 9.9% 30.8% 24.5% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Ty France vs Cabrera +525 0.203 · 91.1 · 9.7% 16.7% 20.2% F B O D 49

· — Gavin Sheets COOL vs Cabrera Edge +400 0.222 · 88.8 · 8.6% 10.0% 22.0% F B O D 49

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs King +700 0.167 · 85.1 · 7.3% 16.7% 13.1% F B O D 39

· — Jackson Merrill COOL vs Cabrera Edge +400 0.141 · 89.8 · 9.4% 15.4% 11.6% F B O D 43

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs King Edge +850 0.118 · 87.1 · 5.4% 15.4% 6.3% F B O D 31

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs King Edge +330 0.235 · 91.4 · 9.9% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 48

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs King +750 0.168 · 89.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 38

· — Miguel Andujar vs Cabrera — 0.146 · 88.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· — Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Cabrera +575 0.107 · 88.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs King Edge +950 0.152 · 87.0 · 5.6% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.6% ← leak OFF 26.6% BRK 24.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.9% 4.5% 8.0% 11.5% C 52 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.5% 6.4% 14.5% 11.4% D 48 +330

139

Nolan Arenado R

9.7% 0.0% 1.3% 6.0% D 39 +700

149

Gabriel Moreno R

7.5% 12.5% 9.8% 8.8% D 38 +750

186

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.9% 1.9% 1.8% 3.6% D 33 +950

197

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.3% 3.1% 0.0% 3.3% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.6% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.6% BRK 28.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Manny Machado R

13.3% 7.2% 10.6% C 55 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.7% 4.9% 8.4% D 49 +400

Ty France R

10.1% 10.0% 9.9% D 49 +525

109

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.5% 9.2% 9.6% D 43 +400

179

Xander Bogaerts R

7.5% 3.4% 6.3% D 34 +575

184

Miguel Andujar R

3.8% 5.3% 4.3% D 33 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Cabrera's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Arenado Machado Sheets France Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Cabrera fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ketel Marte +320 · 52

Manny Machado +370 · 55

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 5 mph cross 66°F open

-9

↑

6 mph · in

74°F

7:10p

-9

↑

6 mph · in

73°F

8:10p

-8

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

9:10p

-8

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

10:10p

-7

↑

4 mph · in

68°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.88× 66°F, wind 5 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael King · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 52 C +320 WARM 53 0.216 91.6 9.8% 15.9%vs RHP 413 16.4% 38.5% 19.6% 43

2 Corbin Carroll 48 D +330 COOL 79 0.235 91.4 9.9% 22.7%vs RHP 406 14.1% 0.0% 13.7% 29

3 Nolan Arenado 39 D +700 COOL 139 0.167 85.1 7.3% 16.3%vs RHP 396 10.8% 16.7% 13.1% 29

4 Gabriel Moreno 38 D +750 COOL 149 0.168 89.4 8.2% 16.7%vs RHP 395 8.7% 0.0% 9.5% 36

5 Ildemaro Vargas 33 D +950 COOL 186 0.152 87.0 5.6% 10.7%vs RHP 399 6.1% 0.0% 7.6% 22

6 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D +850 WARM 197 0.118 87.1 5.4% 8.7%vs RHP 386 6.6% 15.4% 6.3% 42

vs Jose Cabrera · RHP 2.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.20 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 55 C +370 WARM 36 0.213 90.0 9.9% 29.8%vs RHP 396 20.0% 30.8% 24.5% 29

2 Gavin Sheets 49 D +400 COOL 69 0.222 88.8 8.6% 35.7%vs RHP 397 12.8% 10.0% 22.0% 34

3 Ty France 49 D +525 · 70 0.203 91.1 9.7% 30.8%vs RHP 393 14.3% 16.7% 20.2% 28

4 Jackson Merrill 43 D +400 COOL 109 0.141 89.8 9.4% 15.4%vs RHP 406 11.9% 15.4% 11.6% 33

5 Xander Bogaerts 34 D +575 COOL 179 0.107 88.1 7.4% 17.9%vs RHP 395 8.4% 0.0% 7.8% 33

6 Miguel Andujar 33 D — · 184 0.146 88.2 6.3% 16.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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