TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.86×

BOS @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 30 · vs Martin ⟷ Colson Montgomery conv 26 · vs Bennett → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 36

0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras — C ●●●●●

2 Caleb Durbin +1000 D ●●●○○

3 Masataka Yoshida +1000 D ●●○○○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 11

0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colson Montgomery +575 C ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +625 C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Teel +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Martin — 0.248 · 90.5 · 9.3% 33.3% 26.1% F B O C 53

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Bennett +575 0.260 · 89.3 · 9.9% 27.3% 24.2% F B O C 54

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Bennett Edge +625 0.241 · 90.4 · 10.1% 25.0% 23.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· CWS Kyle Teel vs Bennett +850 0.170 · 86.4 · 10.4% 25.0% 15.9% F B O D 39

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Martin +1000 0.155 · 84.8 · 4.3% 25.0% 14.6% F B O D 32

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Martin Edge +1000 0.108 · 88.5 · 3.6% 14.3% 7.7% F B O D 27

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Martin Edge +750 0.158 · 89.6 · 8.3% 11.1% 9.8% F B O D 38

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Bennett Edge +700 0.293 · 90.6 · 9.9% 0.0% 19.6% F B O D 47

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Martin +950 0.159 · 86.1 · 5.7% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 32

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Bennett — 0.129 · 87.7 · 6.8% 10.0% 5.7% F B O D 31

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Bennett Edge — 0.116 · 87.7 · 5.5% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 28

· BOS Anthony Seigler vs Martin Edge — 0.173 · 88.9 · 3.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 30

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Bennett Edge +1000 0.162 · 89.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 32

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Martin Edge +750 0.165 · 89.8 · 8.3% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

· BOS Carlos Narvaez vs Martin +950 0.078 · 91.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 25

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Bennett Edge — 0.033 · 89.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.4% ← leak BRK 27.7% OFF 14.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

11.3% 17.0% 20.0% 13.6% C 53 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

162

Jarren Duran L Edge

14.7% 6.2% 10.4% 11.4% D 38 +750

182

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.2% 11.8% 9.1% 11.4% D 36 +750

209

Caleb Durbin R

3.2% 1.8% 4.0% 2.9% D 32 +1000

211

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.0% 5.5% 11.1% 5.4% D 32 +950

219

Anthony Seigler S Edge

3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 —

230

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

2.1% 0.0% 3.3% 2.0% D 27 +1000

235

Carlos Narvaez R

8.6% 6.1% 0.0% 6.7% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.4% usage) carries Martin's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.0% ← leak OFF 26.0% BRK 10.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Colson Montgomery L

15.0% 12.5% 14.0% 14.4% C 54 +575

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.3% 16.0% 11.5% 14.7% C 53 +625

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randal Grichuk R Edge

10.3% 23.5% 20.0% 14.3% D 47 +700

155

Kyle Teel L

22.2% — 0.0% 16.0% D 39 +850

210

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 4.6% D 32 +1000

214

Sam Antonacci L

8.2% 0.0% 7.7% 6.8% D 31 —

229

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.8% 2.6% 6.2% 4.8% D 28 —

243

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

5.8% 0.0% 5.6% 4.9% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.0% usage) carries Bennett's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Durbin Montgomery Vargas Teel

Legend

attack side — vs Martin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Willson Contreras — · 53

Colson Montgomery +575 · 54

Miguel Vargas +625 · 53

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.86× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.31 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 53 C — WARM 47 0.248 90.5 9.3% 36.8%vs RHP 407 21.2% 33.3% 26.1% 34

2 Jarren Duran 38 D +750 COOL 162 0.158 89.6 8.3% 34.3%vs RHP 398 14.5% 11.1% 9.8% 25

3 Wilyer Abreu 36 D +750 · 182 0.165 89.8 8.3% 11.8%vs RHP 402 11.8% 0.0% 7.9% 29

4 Caleb Durbin 32 D +1000 COOL 209 0.155 84.8 4.3% 24.0%vs RHP 373 8.6% 25.0% 14.6% 34

5 Ceddanne Rafaela 32 D +950 COOL 211 0.159 86.1 5.7% 14.6%vs RHP 372 9.5% 8.3% 7.9% 41

6 Anthony Seigler 30 D — WARM 219 0.173 88.9 3.7% 16.7%vs RHP 339 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 35

7 Masataka Yoshida 27 D +1000 WARM 230 0.108 88.5 3.6% 5.9%vs RHP 390 6.1% 14.3% 7.7% 15

8 Carlos Narvaez 25 D +950 WARM 235 0.078 91.5 6.6% 8.7%vs RHP 386 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 14

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.50 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Colson Montgomery 54 C +575 COOL 42 0.260 89.3 9.9% 34.8%vs LHP 398 27.5% 27.3% 24.2% 34

2 Miguel Vargas 53 C +625 WARM 49 0.241 90.4 10.1% 32.0%vs LHP 389 21.9% 25.0% 23.7% 38

3 Randal Grichuk 47 D +700 · 93 0.293 90.6 9.9% 28.0%vs LHP 390 15.8% 0.0% 19.6% 15

4 Kyle Teel 39 D +850 · 155 0.170 86.4 10.4% 28.6% 389 25.0% 25.0% 15.9% 24

5 Braden Montgomery 32 D +1000 · 210 0.162 89.5 5.5% 13.3% 377 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 35

6 Sam Antonacci 31 D — COOL 214 0.129 87.7 6.8% 9.4% 405 8.5% 10.0% 5.7% 38

7 Chase Meidroth 28 D — COOL 229 0.116 87.7 5.5% 12.5%vs LHP 376 6.8% 8.3% 6.5% 34

8 Luisangel Acuna 22 D — COOL 243 0.033 89.5 5.3% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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