11
HRs allowed
15.1%
HR rate (pool)
14.7%
Overall HR/FB
4.59
FIP
4.74
xFIP
-0.15
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
68
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 68th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
70.0%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.9 EV · 384 ft
max EV allowed 111.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 7 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Troy Melton.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
37.4%
87.3
29.5°
5
-1.3
Cutter Hard
20.1%
77.0
16.1°
0
-4.2
Slider Breaking
18.9%
83.3
9.1°
2
-0.7
Sinker Hard
8.9%
82.9
-3.8°
0
-1.9
Splitter Offspeed
8.9%
87.8
-4.0°
0
+0.1
Curveball Breaking
5.7%
82.8
-11.4°
0
-0.8
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups73
HRs allowed (pool)11
Pool HR rate15.1%
Pool HR/game day1.22
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB14.7% 68
HR/9—
FIP4.59 69
xFIP4.74
FIP − xFIP-0.15 38
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed70.0%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Fastball
Hard · 37.4% usage
-1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.3 mph
Avg launch angle29.5°
HRs allowed5
Pitches261
Cutter
Hard · 20.1% usage
-4.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.0 mph
Avg launch angle16.1°
HRs allowed0
Pitches140
Slider
Breaking · 18.9% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle9.1°
HRs allowed2
Pitches132
Sinker
Hard · 8.9% usage
-1.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle-3.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches62
Splitter
Offspeed · 8.9% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.8 mph
Avg launch angle-4.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches62
Curveball
Breaking · 5.7% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.8 mph
Avg launch angle-11.4°
HRs allowed0
Pitches40
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Troy Melton.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
11 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.9 EV · 384 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-08
8
0
110.2
2026-07-01
7
1
110.9
2026-06-25
8
0
103.1
2026-06-20
8
1
103.9
2026-06-15
7
1
104.3
2026-06-09
8
4
111.9
2026-06-03
9
1
111.0
2026-05-29
9
1
106.9
2026-05-24
9
2
111.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Troy Melton isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.