Today · 2026-07-07

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 3 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#7 Max Muncy vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.06 HR/FB 22.7% #8 Shohei Ohtani vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.06 HR/FB 22.7% #13 Freddie Freeman vs Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.06 HR/FB 22.7%

📦 STACK Andrew Abbott FIP 5.09 HR/FB 13.6% → #3 Kyle Schwarber, #12 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Joey Cantillo FIP 4.26 HR/FB 15.8% → #5 Byron Buxton, #9 Kody Clemens

📦 STACK Michael Lorenzen FIP 5.06 HR/FB 22.7% → #7 Max Muncy, #8 Shohei Ohtani, #13 Freddie Freeman

📦 STACK Matthew Boyd FIP 4.37 HR/FB 20.0% → #11 Samuel Basallo, #14 Pete Alonso

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-06. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.2% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Hunter Goodman (R)	73	-13.9	●	Justin Wrobleski (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle45.0° Distance403 ft StadiumCoors Field	●○○○○	1.3×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.07 FIP3.78 IP787.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.7°F Wind4.1 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note62°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
2	James Wood (L)	70	-10.3	●	Tatsuya Imai (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%15.7% Avg EV95.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffAJ Blubaugh Exit Velo109.8 mph Angle32.0° Distance446 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○●○●	0.0×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.88 IP823.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+29 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.1°F Wind3 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+29 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0
3	Kyle Schwarber (L) ²	68	-19.3	●	Andrew Abbott (LHP) PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	30	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffKodai Senga Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle37.0° Distance408 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○○○○	2.3×	1	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.41 FIP5.02 IP796.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-17 Weather · Great American Ball Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.1°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-17 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note71°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0
4	Junior Caminero (R) ³	67	-10.5	●	Will Warren (RHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	26	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffHunter Brown Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle26.0° Distance437 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○●●○○	1.0×	1	NYY Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/90.99 FIP3.74 IP812.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
5	Byron Buxton (R) ⁴	67	-11.3	●	Joey Cantillo (LHP) CLE @ MIN · Target Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	15d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffWill Klein Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance394 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	3.5×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.04 IP828.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+13 Weather · Target Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp66.0°F Wind1.0 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note66°F, wind 1 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
6	Ben Rice (L) ³	67	-4.4	●	Ian Seymour (LHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffChris Roycroft Exit Velo102.6 mph Angle34.0° Distance400 ft StadiumTropicana Field	○●○○●	0.0×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.19 FIP4.10 IP765.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
7	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁴	67	-17.3	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffKyle Freeland Exit Velo105.9 mph Angle29.0° Distance379 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○○○○●	0.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.41 FIP4.86 IP811.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+26 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.7°F Wind4.1 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note62°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
8	Max Muncy (S) ⁴	66	-10.8	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls50 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle30.0° Distance422 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	2.3×	1	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.41 FIP4.86 IP811.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+26 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.7°F Wind4.1 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note62°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
9	Kody Clemens (L) ³	65	-3.7	●	Joey Cantillo (LHP) CLE @ MIN · Target Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV92.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffBrendan Beck Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle28.0° Distance393 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●●●○	0.3×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.21 FIP4.04 IP828.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Target Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp66.0°F Wind1.0 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note66°F, wind 1 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
10	Dominic Canzone (L)	64	-4.0	●	Max Meyer (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffShane Bieber Exit Velo104.4 mph Angle27.0° Distance401 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park	●○○○●	0.0×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.98 FIP3.97 IP842.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
11	Samuel Basallo (L)	62	·	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffHunter Greene Exit Velo105.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance406 ft StadiumGreat American Ball Park	○○○●●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB17.0% HR/91.59 FIP4.85 IP806.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-42 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.8°F Wind4 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-42 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note71°F, wind 4 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0
12	Bryce Harper (L) ³	62	-8.4	●	Andrew Abbott (LHP) PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle26.0° Distance405 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	1.5×	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.9% HR/91.41 FIP5.02 IP796.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-9 Weather · Great American Ball Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.1°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note71°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0
13	Freddie Freeman (L) ⁵	61	-8.1	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffKyle Hart Exit Velo100.6 mph Angle36.0° Distance388 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○○●○○	0.5×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.41 FIP4.86 IP811.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+27 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.7°F Wind4.1 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+27 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note62°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
14	Pete Alonso (R)	61	-7.1	●	Matthew Boyd (LHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV94.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffZack Littell Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle27.0° Distance437 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	1.5×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB17.0% HR/91.59 FIP4.85 IP806.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-43 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.8°F Wind4 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-43 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note71°F, wind 4 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0
15	Willson Contreras (R) ⁴	60	-8.4	●	Noah Schultz (LHP) BOS @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	20	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%12.4% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffRyan Johnson Exit Velo112.2 mph Angle29.0° Distance446 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○○●●	0.0×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.09 FIP4.30 IP798.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR NoteUnknown stadium
16	Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) ²	60	-9.9	●	Shane Baz (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffKyle Hart Exit Velo100.4 mph Angle38.0° Distance390 ft StadiumWrigley Field	●●○○○	1.0×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.12 IP814.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-38 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.8°F Wind4 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-38 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note71°F, wind 4 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0
17	Juan Soto (L) ⁶	60	-9.0	●	Seth Lugo (RHP) KC @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	19	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffRaisel Iglesias Exit Velo107.8 mph Angle39.0° Distance430 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○○●	0.0×	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.32 FIP4.69 IP792.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-52 Weather · Citi Field cool air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind9.0 mph NNE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-52 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note64°F, wind 9 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -1
18	Joc Pederson (L) ³	59	-4.5	●	José Soriano (RHP) LAA @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV92.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffTanner Bibee Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle33.0° Distance403 ft StadiumProgressive Field	○●●○○	1.0×	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.09 FIP4.38 IP824.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-3 Weather · Globe Life Field warm air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77.8°F Wind4.3 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-3 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note78°F, wind 4 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0
19	Manny Machado (R) ²	59	-5.9	●	Zac Gallen (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffKyle Hurt Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance407 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	●○○●○	0.2×	1	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.32 FIP4.60 IP795.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-42 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.3°F Wind4 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-42 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note65°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0
20	Ketel Marte (S) ²	58	-12.0	●	Germán Márquez (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffAdrian Houser Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle36.0° Distance431 ft StadiumChase Field	○○○○○	1.7×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.17 FIP4.33 IP801.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-35 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.3°F Wind4 mph NW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-35 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note65°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0
21	Mookie Betts (R) ³	58	-5.7	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls44 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffRon Marinaccio Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance402 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○○○○	2.2×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.41 FIP4.86 IP811.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.7°F Wind4.1 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note62°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
22	Curtis Mead (R)	58	-2.4	●	Tatsuya Imai (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	15	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV87.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-06 OffMike Burrows Exit Velo102.2 mph Angle25.0° Distance404 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.7% HR/91.39 FIP4.88 IP823.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+25 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.1°F Wind3 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note73°F, wind 3 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0
23	Owen Caissie (L)	61	-2.3	●	SEA Bullpen Proxy SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%15.7% Avg EV91.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-03 OffMason Barnett Exit Velo101.2 mph Angle24.0° Distance390 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	●○○●○	0.2×	·	SEA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB10.3% HR/90.89 FIP3.45 IP809.9 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
24	Andy Pages (R) ⁶	57	-9.3	●	Michael Lorenzen (RHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV89.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle30.0° Distance387 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	1.2×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.41 FIP4.86 IP811.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp61.7°F Wind4.1 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note62°F, wind 4 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: -1
25	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ²	57	-6.4	●	Ian Seymour (LHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV86.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle30.0° Distance427 ft StadiumComerica Park	○○○○○	2.3×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.19 FIP4.10 IP765.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
26	Ian Happ (S) ³	57	-9.8	●	Shane Baz (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffChad Patrick Exit Velo106.4 mph Angle26.0° Distance381 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○○○○○	1.8×	1	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.12 IP814.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-41 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.8°F Wind4 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-41 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note71°F, wind 4 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0
27	Sal Stewart (R)	60	-7.4	●	PHI Bullpen Proxy PHI @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%14.5% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-02 OffJacob Misiorowski Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance402 ft StadiumAmerican Family Field	○●○○○	0.3×	·	PHI Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.5% HR/91.16 FIP3.72 IP801.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-7 Weather · Great American Ball Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.1°F Wind1.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-7 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note71°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0
28	Colson Montgomery (L) ²	56	-10.1	●	Payton Tolle (LHP) BOS @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	23	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffTanner Bibee Exit Velo109.7 mph Angle20.0° Distance390 ft StadiumProgressive Field	●○○●●	0.0×	·	BOS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.15 FIP4.02 IP796.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR NoteUnknown stadium
29	Dansby Swanson (R)	56	-2.9	●	Shane Baz (RHP) CHC @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffRodolfo Durán Exit Velo92.7 mph Angle34.0° Distance387 ft StadiumWrigley Field	●●○○○	0.8×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.12 IP814.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-45 Weather · Camden Yards mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.8°F Wind4 mph ENE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-45 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note71°F, wind 4 mph ENE (in) — modifier: +0
30	Luke Raley (L) ²	56	-5.3	●	Max Meyer (RHP) SEA @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	26d Last HR · 2026-06-11 OffKyle Bradish Exit Velo92.4 mph Angle34.0° Distance388 ft StadiumCamden Yards	○○○○○	5.7×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.0% HR/90.98 FIP3.97 IP842.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · loanDepot Park neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.7%

▲ +3.4 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 16.0% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-06

20 HRs

40%

8 caught / 20 HRs

in top 50

#3 Ben Rice

27.0%

🔵

#4 James Wood

36.3%

🔵

#5 Shohei Ohtani

18.9%

🔵

#13 Matt Olson

24.3%

🟠

#19 Juan Soto

16.9%

🟠

#20 Curtis Mead

27.9%

🟠

#26 CJ Abrams

18.4%

🟠

#29 Ezequiel Tovar

9.4%

🟠

Missed

Heliot Ramos Kazuma Okamoto Yainer Diaz Brice Matthews Carson Benge +7 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Junior Caminero ×4 Ben Rice ×3 Yordan Alvarez ×3 James Wood ×3 Kody Clemens ×3

❄️ Cold

Ty France 0 of 7d Max Muncy 0 of 7d Gavin Sheets 0 of 6d Jac Caglianone 0 of 6d Bryce Harper 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.9%

B 19.6%

C+ 16.4%

C 13.5%

D 8.7%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-07

You saw the full board yesterday

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.