TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ BAL

Camden Yards is live · 1.18×

CHC @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph cross 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:35p

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7:35p

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conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Samuel Basallo conv 32 · vs Boyd ⟷ Dansby Swanson conv 31 · vs Baz → edge: Samuel Basallo

ATTACK Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 89

1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · leakiest side of this game

1 Samuel Basallo +750 C+ ●●●●●

2 Jackson Holliday — C ●●○○○

3 Pete Alonso +575 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 24

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dansby Swanson +850 C ●●●●●

2 Pete Crow-Armstrong +700 C ●●●●○

3 Michael Busch +950 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Samuel Basallo: 12.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 37.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Samuel Basallo ✶ vs Boyd +750 0.210 · 91.3 · 12.2% 37.5% 25.6% F B O C+ 62

· CHC Dansby Swanson HOT vs Baz +850 0.206 · 89.9 · 8.1% 38.5% 23.6% F B O C 56

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Baz Edge +700 0.230 · 90.4 · 9.2% 23.1% 25.8% F B O C 59

· CHC Michael Busch vs Baz Edge +950 0.161 · 88.3 · 9.3% 30.8% 16.4% F B O C 51

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Baz Edge +700 0.263 · 92.4 · 10.4% 20.0% 25.1% F B O C 56

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Baz +950 0.184 · 89.3 · 8.3% 23.1% 21.6% F B O C 52

· BAL Jackson Holliday COOL vs Boyd — 0.176 · 87.6 · 12.1% 14.3% 15.5% F B O C 51

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Boyd Edge +575 0.213 · 94.1 · 12.2% 9.1% 15.4% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Baz Edge +625 0.225 · 89.6 · 10.3% 7.7% 15.8% F B O C 57

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Boyd +750 0.189 · 89.4 · 9.6% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 54

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Boyd Edge +700 0.175 · 92.0 · 10.7% 0.0% 17.5% F B O C 53

· BAL Adley Rutschman COOL vs Boyd Edge +750 0.191 · 89.6 · 9.8% 0.0% 14.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman COOL vs Baz — 0.132 · 87.7 · 6.0% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 40

· CHC Miguel Amaya COOL vs Baz — 0.185 · 86.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 44

· BAL Taylor Ward COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.099 · 89.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 41

· BAL Blaze Alexander COOL vs Boyd Edge — 0.120 · 92.0 · 8.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 44

· BAL Dylan Beavers vs Boyd — 0.120 · 87.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 42

· CHC Nico Hoerner COOL vs Baz — 0.097 · 85.7 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.1% ← leak BRK 33.2% OFF 7.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.4% 13.0% 10.2% 10.6% C 59 +700

Ian Happ S Edge

16.3% 20.8% 3.7% 14.1% C 57 +625

Michael Conforto L Edge

13.3% 21.4% 10.5% 14.0% C 56 +700

Dansby Swanson R

8.7% 4.5% 14.8% 8.2% C 56 +850

Seiya Suzuki R

9.7% 8.7% 0.0% 8.7% C 52 +950

Michael Busch L Edge

13.0% 7.5% 3.6% 10.7% C 51 +950

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

114

Miguel Amaya R

11.9% 7.4% 0.0% 9.5% D 44 —

161

Alex Bregman R

4.8% 6.8% 6.9% 5.5% D 40 —

227

Nico Hoerner R

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.1% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.6% ← leak OFF 27.8% BRK 22.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Samuel Basallo L

15.9% 9.5% 9.1% 12.4% C+ 62 +750

Pete Alonso R Edge

16.0% 13.3% 6.6% 12.9% C+ 61 +575

Gunnar Henderson L

8.1% 7.8% 6.9% 7.7% C 54 +750

Coby Mayo R Edge

8.3% 11.1% 9.8% 9.2% C 53 +700

Jackson Holliday L

14.6% 16.7% 4.8% 12.2% C 51 —

Adley Rutschman S Edge

12.1% 4.8% 2.2% 8.2% C 51 +750

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

121

Blaze Alexander R Edge

7.4% 0.0% 6.0% 6.3% D 44 —

141

Dylan Beavers L

10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% D 42 —

151

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.9% 3.0% 0.0% 5.8% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.6% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Conforto Swanson Suzuki Busch Basallo Holliday

Legend

attack side — vs Boyd fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Samuel Basallo +750 · 62

Dansby Swanson +850 · 56

Pete Crow-Armstrong +700 · 59

Michael Conforto +700 · 56

Seiya Suzuki +950 · 52

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 3 mph cross 82°F open

↑

3 mph · in

74°F

6:35p · peak

↑

3 mph · in

74°F

7:35p

↑

3 mph · in

74°F

8:35p

↑

3 mph · in

74°F

9:35p

↑

3 mph · in

74°F

10:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 82°F, wind 3 mph SSE (cross) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 59 C +700 COOL 21 0.230 90.4 9.2% 21.9%vs RHP 392 20.0% 23.1% 25.8% 29

2 Ian Happ 57 C +625 COOL 29 0.225 89.6 10.3% 26.9%vs RHP 402 20.2% 7.7% 15.8% 26

3 Michael Conforto 56 C +700 COOL 32 0.263 92.4 10.4% 14.7%vs RHP 406 7.1% 20.0% 25.1% 23

4 Dansby Swanson 56 C +850 HOT 33 0.206 89.9 8.1% 20.4%vs RHP 403 14.8% 38.5% 23.6% 39

5 Seiya Suzuki 52 C +950 · 61 0.184 89.3 8.3% 22.7%vs RHP 407 13.0% 23.1% 21.6% 35

6 Michael Busch 51 C +950 · 66 0.161 88.3 9.3% 14.3%vs RHP 403 13.2% 30.8% 16.4% 33

7 Miguel Amaya 44 D — COOL 114 0.185 86.1 7.3% 21.7%vs RHP 384 6.2% 0.0% 12.7% 10

8 Alex Bregman 40 D — COOL 161 0.132 87.7 6.0% 15.7%vs RHP 398 6.8% 8.3% 8.4% 38

9 Nico Hoerner 30 D — COOL 227 0.097 85.7 2.7% 3.9%vs RHP 383 4.5% 0.0% 6.9% 45

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Samuel Basallo ✶ 62 C+ +750 WARM 13 0.210 91.3 12.2% 16.7%vs LHP 399 15.9% 37.5% 25.6% 25

2 Pete Alonso 61 C+ +575 · 18 0.213 94.1 12.2% 11.1%vs LHP 399 19.1% 9.1% 15.4% 23

3 Gunnar Henderson 54 C +750 COOL 46 0.189 89.4 9.6% 43.8%vs LHP 388 17.2% 0.0% 17.8% 40

4 Coby Mayo 53 C +700 WARM 57 0.175 92.0 10.7% 41.2%vs LHP 403 14.3% 0.0% 17.5% 13

5 Jackson Holliday 51 C — COOL 68 0.176 87.6 12.1% 18.5% 384 5.6% 14.3% 15.5% 17

6 Adley Rutschman 51 C +750 COOL 69 0.191 89.6 9.8% 13.6%vs LHP 400 10.4% 0.0% 14.3% 19

7 Blaze Alexander 44 D — COOL 121 0.120 92.0 8.9% 7.7%vs LHP 392 5.3% 0.0% 9.0% 23

8 Dylan Beavers 42 D — WARM 141 0.120 87.3 8.4% 0.0%vs LHP 406 2.9% 0.0% 7.1% 9

9 Taylor Ward 41 D — COOL 151 0.099 89.5 8.5% 10.0%vs LHP 393 5.6% 0.0% 9.3% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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