TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ PIT

Suppressed air · 0.89×

ATL @ PIT

PNC Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.81× Wind 2 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Henry Davis conv 27 · vs Waldrep ⟷ Matt Olson conv 21 · vs Skenes → edge: Esmerlyn Valdez

ATTACK Hurston Waldrep RHP · ATL

leak 95

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · leakiest side of this game

1 Henry Davis — D ●●●●○

2 Esmerlyn Valdez — C ●●●●○

3 Brandon Lowe — C ●●●●○

FADE Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 77

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson — C ●●●○○

2 Ozzie Albies — D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Esmerlyn Valdez: Match 26.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ vs Waldrep — 0.352 · 90.5 · 11.5% 25.0% 26.8% F B O C 53

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Waldrep Edge — 0.253 · 90.9 · 7.9% 25.0% 25.2% F B O C 52

· ATL Matt Olson vs Skenes Edge — 0.270 · 92.8 · 9.8% 16.7% 24.6% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· PIT Henry Davis COOL vs Waldrep — 0.184 · 89.9 · 7.3% 33.3% 21.3% F B O D 43

· PIT Tyler Callihan COOL vs Waldrep Edge — 0.231 · 85.1 · 6.9% 14.3% 22.9% F B O D 42

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Waldrep Edge — 0.191 · 90.8 · 7.0% 15.4% 12.4% F B O D 43

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Skenes Edge — 0.172 · 87.2 · 5.3% 16.7% 8.4% F B O D 34

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.200 · 91.2 · 10.2% 8.3% 11.7% F B O D 44

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Waldrep Edge — 0.172 · 89.6 · 5.6% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 38

· ATL Austin Riley COOL vs Skenes — 0.149 · 90.6 · 8.4% 8.3% 8.1% F B O D 34

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Waldrep — 0.086 · 86.0 · 3.6% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 25

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Skenes — 0.149 · 86.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 27

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Skenes Edge — 0.146 · 90.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Skenes Edge — 0.129 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 29

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Waldrep — 0.083 · 87.7 · 3.4% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 25

· PIT Jake Mangum vs Waldrep Edge — 0.055 · 83.9 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.7% ← leak OFF 26.4% BRK 21.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.6% 12.5% 10.1% 14.8% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

116

Drake Baldwin L Edge

17.1% 0.0% 22.2% 15.7% D 44 —

209

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.3% 3.4% 1.2% 4.1% D 34 —

210

Austin Riley R

13.3% 3.4% 12.7% 11.8% D 34 —

226

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

4.3% 10.7% 5.0% 5.6% D 30 —

231

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.7% 3.3% 6.7% 6.1% D 29 —

236

Mauricio Dubon R

4.0% 4.3% 6.1% 4.6% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.7% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.3% BRK 17.6% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Esmerlyn Valdez R

21.4% 42.9% 0.0% 27.3% C 53 —

Brandon Lowe L Edge

17.2% 7.4% 13.0% 13.2% C 52 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

126

Henry Davis R

12.5% 5.7% 15.4% 10.8% D 43 —

128

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.2% 13.6% 5.5% 10.0% D 43 —

136

Tyler Callihan L Edge

13.3% 6.7% 10.0% 10.0% D 42 —

173

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

9.2% 3.2% 4.8% 7.1% D 38 —

253

Nick Gonzales R

1.9% 4.9% 0.0% 2.7% D 25 —

254

Jared Triolo R

3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 25 —

259

Jake Mangum S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 21 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Waldrep's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Valdez Lowe Davis Reynolds Callihan

Legend

attack side — vs Waldrep fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Esmerlyn Valdez — · 53

Brandon Lowe — · 52

Henry Davis — · 43

Stadium conditions

PNC Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.81× Wind 2 mph out 84°F open

-3

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

7:40p

-3

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

8:40p

-3

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

9:40p

-3

↑

3 mph · out

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 84°F, wind 2 mph NW (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 53 C — · 50 0.270 92.8 9.8% 30.0%vs RHP 408 21.3% 16.7% 24.6% 34

2 Drake Baldwin 44 D — COOL 116 0.200 91.2 10.2% 28.6%vs RHP 406 19.1% 8.3% 11.7% 36

3 Ozzie Albies 34 D — · 209 0.172 87.2 5.3% 13.6%vs RHP 383 13.5% 16.7% 8.4% 42

4 Austin Riley 34 D — COOL 210 0.149 90.6 8.4% 14.3%vs RHP 404 8.0% 8.3% 8.1% 28

5 Mike Yastrzemski 30 D — WARM 226 0.146 90.2 5.8% 16.3%vs RHP 383 7.0% 0.0% 7.4% 21

6 Dominic Smith 29 D — COOL 231 0.129 87.7 6.6% 13.6%vs RHP 390 7.2% 0.0% 6.4% 25

7 Mauricio Dubon 27 D — COOL 236 0.149 86.3 5.7% 13.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 44

vs Hurston Waldrep · RHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.93 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ 53 C — · 49 0.352 90.5 11.5% 27.3%vs RHP 405 16.7% 25.0% 26.8% 30

2 Brandon Lowe 52 C — WARM 60 0.253 90.9 7.9% 26.6%vs RHP 392 18.2% 25.0% 25.2% 38

3 Henry Davis 43 D — COOL 126 0.184 89.9 7.3% 33.3%vs RHP 393 13.2% 33.3% 21.3% 15

4 Bryan Reynolds 43 D — COOL 128 0.191 90.8 7.0% 17.5%vs RHP 411 14.3% 15.4% 12.4% 36

5 Tyler Callihan 42 D — COOL 136 0.231 85.1 6.9% 18.8%vs RHP 411 12.5% 14.3% 22.9% 12

6 Ryan O'Hearn 38 D — · 173 0.172 89.6 5.6% 20.8%vs RHP 382 15.3% 8.3% 10.5% 40

7 Nick Gonzales 25 D — COOL 253 0.086 86.0 3.6% 9.1%vs RHP 399 4.9% 8.3% 6.7% 37

8 Jared Triolo 25 D — WARM 254 0.083 87.7 3.4% 5.9%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 27

9 Jake Mangum 21 D — WARM 259 0.055 83.9 2.4% 6.2%vs RHP 410 2.2% 0.0% 6.4% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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