TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.18×

HOU @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 1 mph slight_out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:45p

+5 ↑

7:45p

+5 ↑

8:45p

+5 ↑

9:45p

+5 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · +5 FIT

Best of game James Wood conv 35 · vs Imai ⟷ Yordan Alvarez conv 29 · vs Alvarez → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Tatsuya Imai RHP · HOU

leak 97

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood +450 B ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +750 C+ ●●●●●

3 Cj Abrams +700 C ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Alvarez LHP · WSH

leak 36

0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Yordan Alvarez +750 C+ ●●●●○

2 Cam Smith — D ●●●○○

3 Christian Walker +950 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 39.4% · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Imai Edge +450 0.256 · 95.2 · 15.6% 30.8% 39.4% F B O B 72

· WSH Curtis Mead vs Imai +750 0.231 · 88.4 · 10.9% 27.3% 33.0% F B O C+ 61

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Alvarez +750 0.312 · 94.8 · 10.2% 27.3% 30.6% F B O C+ 65

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Alvarez Edge +950 0.238 · 89.8 · 7.6% 16.7% 20.8% F B O C 52

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Imai Edge +700 0.222 · 89.9 · 10.3% 0.0% 29.5% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· HOU Cam Smith vs Alvarez Edge — 0.157 · 89.4 · 8.1% 25.0% 17.8% F B O D 44

· HOU Brice Matthews COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.126 · 87.4 · 7.1% 20.0% 15.1% F B O D 39

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Imai Edge — 0.100 · 83.3 · 6.6% 14.3% 14.9% F B O D 38

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Alvarez Edge +950 0.167 · 86.8 · 5.8% 15.4% 8.1% F B O D 39

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Imai Edge — 0.165 · 87.7 · 8.8% 9.1% 13.2% F B O D 46

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.147 · 85.8 · 5.7% 9.1% 9.2% F B O D 35

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Imai Edge +1000 0.181 · 89.3 · 7.7% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 45

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Imai — 0.147 · 88.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 43

· HOU Zach Dezenzo vs Alvarez Edge — 0.143 · 84.2 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 37

· HOU Nick Allen COOL vs Alvarez Edge — 0.069 · 84.4 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 29

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Imai Edge +900 0.050 · 85.0 · 2.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 25

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Alvarez Edge +900 0.106 · 86.0 · 2.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 54.7% FB 42.2% OFF 3.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L

24.4% 18.8% 11.5% 19.0% C+ 65 +750

Christian Walker R Edge

12.3% 8.8% 16.0% 10.6% C 52 +950

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

112

Cam Smith R Edge

16.3% 9.9% 20.0% 12.4% D 44 —

163

Brice Matthews R Edge

0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 9.0% D 39 —

164

Isaac Paredes R Edge

4.8% 7.5% 2.9% 6.2% D 39 +950

179

Zach Dezenzo R Edge

0.0% 15.0% 100.0% 13.8% D 37 —

200

Jose Altuve R Edge

6.0% 6.8% 0.0% 6.0% D 35 —

229

Nick Allen R Edge

0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 1.5% D 29 —

238

Christian Vazquez R Edge

0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 2.1% D 27 +900

Read the columns: no single family leads Alvarez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 8 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 49.0% BRK 44.8% OFF 4.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

22.3% 25.8% 14.8% 22.4% B 72 +450

Neutral · 2

Curtis Mead R

13.0% 10.3% 3.6% 10.8% C+ 61 +750

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.0% 7.8% 10.0% 9.7% C 52 +700

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.2% 9.9% 4.3% 7.4% D 46 —

104

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.7% 0.0% 3.3% 5.3% D 45 +1000

125

Jacob Young R

7.0% 4.9% 4.0% 6.1% D 43 —

169

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.6% 5.3% 3.8% 4.1% D 38 —

250

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 25 +900

Read the columns: no single family leads Imai's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Smith Matthews Wood Mead Abrams Vivas

Legend

attack side — vs Imai fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

James Wood +450 · 72

Curtis Mead +750 · 61

Yordan Alvarez +750 · 65

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 1 mph slight_out 83°F open

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

6:45p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

7:45p

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

8:45p

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

9:45p

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 83°F, wind 1 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Alvarez · LHP 0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 65 C+ +750 · 10 0.312 94.8 10.2% 30.8%vs LHP 401 27.8% 27.3% 30.6% 35

2 Christian Walker 52 C +950 COOL 59 0.238 89.8 7.6% 25.0%vs LHP 388 20.5% 16.7% 20.8% 33

3 Cam Smith 44 D — · 112 0.157 89.4 8.1% 20.0%vs LHP 415 11.9% 25.0% 17.8% 41

4 Brice Matthews 39 D — COOL 163 0.126 87.4 7.1% 36.4%vs LHP 403 11.9% 20.0% 15.1% 14

5 Isaac Paredes 39 D +950 · 164 0.167 86.8 5.8% 0.0%vs LHP 373 11.5% 15.4% 8.1% 47

6 Zach Dezenzo 37 D — WARM 179 0.143 84.2 8.7% 14.3% 359 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 1

7 Jose Altuve 35 D — COOL 200 0.147 85.8 5.7% 14.3%vs LHP 376 7.3% 9.1% 9.2% 39

8 Nick Allen 29 D — COOL 229 0.069 84.4 3.0% 16.7%vs LHP 367 3.4% 0.0% 8.5% 11

9 Christian Vazquez 27 D +900 COOL 238 0.106 86.0 2.9% 11.1%vs LHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 10

vs Tatsuya Imai · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 72 B +450 COOL 2 0.256 95.2 15.6% 34.0%vs RHP 411 27.4% 30.8% 39.4% 33

2 Curtis Mead 61 C+ +750 · 15 0.231 88.4 10.9% 25.8%vs RHP 400 22.0% 27.3% 33.0% 35

3 Cj Abrams 52 C +700 · 58 0.222 89.9 10.3% 26.8%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 29.5% 27

4 Daylen Lile 46 D — · 97 0.165 87.7 8.8% 12.9%vs RHP 402 8.6% 9.1% 13.2% 38

5 Keibert Ruiz 45 D +1000 · 104 0.181 89.3 7.7% 9.8%vs RHP 378 11.8% 0.0% 13.0% 22

6 Jacob Young 43 D — COOL 125 0.147 88.7 8.1% 18.9%vs RHP 391 8.2% 0.0% 11.5% 19

7 Jorbit Vivas 38 D — WARM 169 0.100 83.3 6.6% 11.1%vs RHP 392 4.3% 14.3% 14.9% 26

8 Nasim Nunez 25 D +900 WARM 250 0.050 85.0 2.3% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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