TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ NYM

Suppressed air · 0.89×

KC @ NYM

Citi Field · 7:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 9 mph in 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

-12 ↑

7:10p

-11 ↑

8:10p

-11 ↑

9:10p

-10 ↑

10:10p

-9 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks -9

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 23 · vs Proxy ⟷ Mark Vientos conv 25 · vs Lugo → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK NYM Bullpen Proxy · PHI

leak 55

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +475 C ●●●●○

2 Jac Caglianone +475 C ●●○○○

3 Isaac Collins +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 12

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mark Vientos — C ●●●●○

2 Juan Soto +320 C+ ●●○○○

3 Bo Bichette +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: 14.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Mark Vientos vs Lugo — 0.184 · 89.5 · 10.1% 28.6% 20.9% F B O C 52

· — Carter Jensen vs Proxy +475 0.191 · 91.0 · 9.5% 27.3% 19.1% F B O C 52

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ COOL vs Lugo Edge +320 0.254 · 92.8 · 12.0% 15.4% 16.1% F B O C+ 60

· — Jac Caglianone vs Proxy +475 0.198 · 94.0 · 15.8% 9.1% 20.3% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Lugo +625 0.128 · 90.5 · 8.3% 21.4% 8.6% F B O D 43

· NYM Luis Torrens vs Lugo +850 0.098 · 88.2 · 6.6% 11.1% 10.9% F B O D 38

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Lugo +500 0.176 · 90.6 · 12.9% 0.0% 21.4% F B O D 48

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Lugo Edge +575 0.134 · 89.5 · 8.9% 14.3% 7.1% F B O D 43

· — Isaac Collins vs Proxy +850 0.107 · 88.8 · 6.1% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 35

· — Lane Thomas vs Proxy +575 0.123 · 87.7 · 4.0% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 36

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Lugo Edge +625 0.145 · — · 8.6% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 39

· — Michael Massey COOL vs Proxy +625 0.167 · 90.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· — Salvador Perez COOL vs Proxy +525 0.145 · 88.8 · 9.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· NYM Brett Baty vs Lugo Edge +750 0.086 · 88.8 · 8.7% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.8% ← leak BRK 36.2% OFF 8.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L Edge

17.9% 12.5% 5.6% 14.3% C+ 60 +320

Mark Vientos R

10.4% 12.5% 8.3% 10.6% C 52 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

17.6% 14.8% 17.6% 16.5% D 48 +500

117

Bo Bichette R

4.6% 12.6% 0.0% 6.7% D 43 +625

119

Carson Benge L Edge

7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% D 43 +575

138

A.J. Ewing L Edge

9.4% 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% D 39 +625

145

Luis Torrens R

4.8% 5.6% 0.0% 4.3% D 38 +850

167

Brett Baty L Edge

7.3% 11.9% 3.0% 7.6% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.8% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for NYM Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Vientos Bichette Caglianone Jensen

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Mark Vientos — · 52

Carter Jensen +475 · 52

Stadium conditions

Citi Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 9 mph in 64°F open

-12

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12 mph · in

65°F

7:10p

-11

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11 mph · in

65°F

8:10p

-11

↑

11 mph · in

65°F

9:10p

-10

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10 mph · in

65°F

10:10p

-9

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9 mph · in

64°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 64°F, wind 9 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 60 C+ +320 COOL 17 0.254 92.8 12.0% 31.1%vs RHP 397 20.0% 15.4% 16.1% 31

2 Mark Vientos 52 C — · 55 0.184 89.5 10.1% 17.6%vs RHP 409 13.8% 28.6% 20.9% 16

3 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +500 WARM 74 0.176 90.6 12.9% 23.3%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 26

4 Bo Bichette 43 D +625 · 117 0.128 90.5 8.3% 10.9%vs RHP 385 10.1% 21.4% 8.6% 38

5 Carson Benge 43 D +575 COOL 119 0.134 89.5 8.9% 13.0%vs RHP 399 10.5% 14.3% 7.1% 45

6 A.J. Ewing 39 D +625 WARM 138 0.145 — 8.6% 13.0%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 35

7 Luis Torrens 38 D +850 WARM 145 0.098 88.2 6.6% 7.1%vs RHP 394 6.2% 11.1% 10.9% 14

8 Brett Baty 36 D +750 · 167 0.086 88.8 8.7% 7.9%vs RHP 415 3.6% 0.0% 6.4% 30

vs NYM Bullpen Proxy 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 58 C +475 · 36 0.198 94.0 15.8% 25.5% 418 12.7% 9.1% 20.3% 27

2 Carter Jensen 52 C +475 WARM 73 0.191 91.0 9.5% 13.8% 393 16.4% 27.3% 19.1% 30

3 Michael Massey 41 D +625 COOL 152 0.167 90.4 7.0% 10.0% 398 7.3% 0.0% 9.4% 25

4 Salvador Perez 39 D +525 COOL 173 0.145 88.8 9.1% 12.4% 394 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 24

5 Lane Thomas 36 D +575 WARM 194 0.123 87.7 4.0% 7.9% 413 13.5% 9.1% 7.1% 27

6 Isaac Collins 35 D +850 WARM 199 0.107 88.8 6.1% 5.7% 390 5.4% 11.1% 6.9% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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