TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.89×

AZ @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph in 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

-10 ↑

6:40p

-11 ↑

7:40p

-10 ↑

8:40p

-9 ↑

9:40p

-8 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -8

Best of game Manny Machado conv 29 · vs Gallen ⟷ Ketel Marte conv 31 · vs Márquez → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Zac Gallen RHP · AZ

leak 97

1.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.92 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado +390 C ●●●●●

2 Ty France +525 C ●●●○○

3 Gavin Sheets +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Germán Márquez RHP · SD

leak 95

2.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ketel Marte +280 C ●●●●●

2 Nolan Arenado +525 D ●●○○○

3 Geraldo Perdomo +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 10.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Márquez Edge +280 0.213 · 91.3 · 10.7% 38.5% 22.6% F B O C 58

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Gallen +390 0.216 · 90.0 · 10.8% 30.8% 28.1% F B O C 59

· SD Ty France vs Gallen +525 0.206 · 91.2 · 10.9% 16.7% 24.0% F B O C 53

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Gallen Edge +425 0.225 · 89.3 · 9.7% 10.0% 20.6% F B O C 52

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Márquez Edge +330 0.235 · 91.7 · 11.1% 0.0% 16.1% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Márquez +525 0.159 · 85.3 · 8.1% 16.7% 9.2% F B O D 43

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Gallen Edge +425 0.142 · 89.8 · 10.5% 15.4% 10.1% F B O D 46

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Márquez Edge +850 0.111 · 87.0 · 5.7% 15.4% 7.4% F B O D 36

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Márquez +575 0.171 · 89.8 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Gallen — 0.146 · 88.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Márquez Edge — 0.154 · 86.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 41

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Gallen +700 0.107 · 88.1 · 8.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 49.4% FB 47.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ketel Marte S Edge

8.1% 15.3% 11.2% C 58 +280

Corbin Carroll L Edge

14.5% 11.7% 11.6% C 54 +330

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

103

Gabriel Moreno R

10.0% 7.7% 9.0% D 44 +575

118

Nolan Arenado R

1.4% 9.8% 6.1% D 43 +525

129

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

1.8% 5.0% 3.7% D 41 —

168

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

0.0% 4.3% 3.0% D 36 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Márquez's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.9% ← leak BRK 40.3% OFF 16.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Manny Machado R

12.8% 7.2% 5.9% 10.2% C 59 +390

Ty France R

11.0% 10.0% 8.7% 10.3% C 53 +525

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.7% 5.1% 5.7% 8.7% C 52 +425

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.7% 9.2% 8.3% 9.8% D 46 +425

147

Xander Bogaerts R

7.5% 3.6% 4.8% 6.3% D 38 +700

153

Miguel Andujar R

3.8% 5.3% 4.2% 4.3% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.9% usage) carries Gallen's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Machado France Sheets

Legend

attack side — vs Gallen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Ketel Marte +280 · 58

Manny Machado +390 · 59

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph in 65°F open

-10

↑

8 mph · in

77°F

6:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

73°F

7:40p

-10

↑

7 mph · in

71°F

8:40p

-9

↑

6 mph · in

70°F

9:40p

-8

↑

5 mph · in

69°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 65°F, wind 4 mph NW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Germán Márquez · RHP 2.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.11 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 58 C +280 WARM 20 0.213 91.3 10.7% 15.9%vs RHP 413 16.7% 38.5% 22.6% 41

2 Corbin Carroll 54 C +330 COOL 41 0.235 91.7 11.1% 22.7%vs RHP 406 14.3% 0.0% 16.1% 26

3 Gabriel Moreno 44 D +575 COOL 103 0.171 89.8 9.2% 16.7%vs RHP 395 8.9% 0.0% 9.9% 32

4 Nolan Arenado 43 D +525 WARM 118 0.159 85.3 8.1% 16.3%vs RHP 400 11.0% 16.7% 9.2% 28

5 Ildemaro Vargas 41 D — COOL 129 0.154 86.9 6.3% 10.7%vs RHP 399 6.2% 0.0% 9.0% 18

6 Geraldo Perdomo 36 D +850 WARM 168 0.111 87.0 5.7% 8.7%vs RHP 388 6.7% 15.4% 7.4% 38

vs Zac Gallen · RHP 1.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.92 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 59 C +390 WARM 19 0.216 90.0 10.8% 29.8%vs RHP 396 20.2% 30.8% 28.1% 29

2 Ty France 53 C +525 · 48 0.206 91.2 10.9% 30.8%vs RHP 393 14.7% 16.7% 24.0% 27

3 Gavin Sheets 52 C +425 · 56 0.225 89.3 9.7% 35.7%vs RHP 397 13.0% 10.0% 20.6% 30

4 Jackson Merrill 46 D +425 COOL 92 0.142 89.8 10.5% 15.4%vs RHP 406 12.0% 15.4% 10.1% 31

5 Xander Bogaerts 38 D +700 COOL 147 0.107 88.1 8.1% 17.9%vs RHP 395 8.5% 0.0% 8.9% 32

6 Miguel Andujar 37 D — · 153 0.146 88.2 7.0% 16.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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