TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ CWS

Suppressed air · 0.86×

BOS @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 29 · vs Tolle ⟷ Willson Contreras conv 30 · vs Schultz → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Payton Tolle LHP · BOS

leak 93

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery +575 C ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas +575 C ●●●●○

3 Kyle Teel +750 D ●●●●○

FADE Noah Schultz LHP · CWS

leak 92

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +525 C+ ●●●●●

2 Andruw Monasterio +850 D ●●●●○

3 Connor Wong — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 13.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ vs Schultz Edge +525 0.248 · 90.4 · 12.6% 33.3% 27.5% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Tolle +575 0.260 · 89.4 · 10.3% 27.3% 30.6% F B O C 56

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Tolle Edge +575 0.241 · 90.4 · 10.5% 33.3% 23.6% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· BOS Andruw Monasterio vs Schultz Edge +850 0.130 · 88.0 · 9.2% 50.0% 8.1% F B O D 40

· CWS Kyle Teel vs Tolle +750 0.170 · 86.2 · 11.3% 33.3% 19.8% F B O D 41

· BOS Connor Wong vs Schultz Edge — 0.111 · 86.3 · 7.6% 33.3% 10.2% F B O D 36

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Schultz Edge — 0.155 · 84.7 · 5.9% 25.0% 14.9% F B O D 38

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Tolle — 0.166 · 86.9 · 5.9% 18.2% 10.4% F B O D 35

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Tolle — 0.129 · 87.8 · 7.1% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Schultz +850 0.158 · 89.6 · 11.1% 11.1% 5.7% F B O D 44

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Tolle Edge +750 0.293 · 90.8 · 10.3% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 47

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.116 · 87.7 · 5.7% 8.3% 6.1% F B O D 29

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Schultz +700 0.165 · 89.9 · 11.2% 8.3% 6.0% F B O D 44

· BOS Anthony Seigler vs Schultz Edge — 0.173 · 89.6 · — 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 25

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Schultz Edge — 0.159 · 86.0 · 7.3% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· CWS Luisangel Acuna COOL vs Tolle Edge — 0.033 · 89.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 4.8% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 67.7% ← leak BRK 23.3% OFF 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R Edge

11.3% 17.0% 20.0% 13.6% C+ 60 +525

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

123

Wilyer Abreu L

12.3% 11.8% 9.1% 11.5% D 44 +700

124

Jarren Duran L

14.0% 6.3% 10.6% 11.2% D 44 +850

160

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

4.8% 7.3% 16.7% 7.0% D 40 +850

171

Caleb Durbin R Edge

3.2% 1.8% 4.0% 3.0% D 38 —

183

Ceddanne Rafaela R Edge

4.1% 4.2% 11.1% 5.1% D 37 —

192

Connor Wong R Edge

3.6% 9.1% 0.0% 4.8% D 36 —

251

Anthony Seigler S Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.7% usage) carries Schultz's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 89.1% ← leak BRK 7.7% OFF 3.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Colson Montgomery L

15.0% 14.0% 12.5% 14.4% C 56 +575

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.3% 11.5% 16.0% 14.7% C 54 +575

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Randal Grichuk R Edge

10.4% 20.0% 23.5% 14.4% D 47 +750

147

Kyle Teel L

25.0% 0.0% — 17.4% D 41 +750

201

Tristan Peters L

6.3% 4.5% 0.0% 5.1% D 35 —

217

Sam Antonacci L

8.2% 7.7% 0.0% 6.8% D 33 —

233

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.8% 6.2% 2.6% 4.8% D 29 —

258

Luisangel Acuna R Edge

5.8% 5.6% 0.0% 4.9% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (89.1% usage) carries Tolle's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Monasterio Durbin Wong Montgomery Vargas Teel Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Tolle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Willson Contreras +525 · 60

Colson Montgomery +575 · 56

Miguel Vargas +575 · 54

Kyle Teel +750 · 41

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.86× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Suppress · Combined 0.86× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Schultz · LHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 60 C+ +525 WARM 19 0.248 90.4 12.6% 26.1%vs LHP 407 21.4% 33.3% 27.5% 35

2 Wilyer Abreu 44 D +700 · 123 0.165 89.9 11.2% 9.1%vs LHP 402 11.9% 8.3% 6.0% 31

3 Jarren Duran 44 D +850 COOL 124 0.158 89.6 11.1% 8.3%vs LHP 398 14.6% 11.1% 5.7% 23

4 Andruw Monasterio 40 D +850 WARM 160 0.130 88.0 9.2% 18.8%vs LHP 387 16.7% 50.0% 8.1% 20

5 Caleb Durbin 38 D — COOL 171 0.155 84.7 5.9% 13.3%vs LHP 373 8.8% 25.0% 14.9% 35

6 Ceddanne Rafaela 37 D — COOL 183 0.159 86.0 7.3% 10.5%vs LHP 370 8.4% 0.0% 8.7% 41

7 Connor Wong 36 D — WARM 192 0.111 86.3 7.6% 14.3%vs LHP 380 5.6% 33.3% 10.2% 15

8 Anthony Seigler 25 D — · 251 0.173 89.6 — 10.0% 339 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 34

vs Payton Tolle · LHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.44 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Colson Montgomery 56 C +575 COOL 30 0.260 89.4 10.3% 36.4%vs LHP 398 27.9% 27.3% 30.6% 31

2 Miguel Vargas 54 C +575 WARM 44 0.241 90.4 10.5% 32.0%vs LHP 389 22.2% 33.3% 23.6% 39

3 Randal Grichuk 47 D +750 · 90 0.293 90.8 10.3% 28.0%vs LHP 390 16.7% 0.0% 16.2% 17

4 Kyle Teel 41 D +750 · 147 0.170 86.2 11.3% 28.6% 389 33.3% 33.3% 19.8% 22

5 Tristan Peters 35 D — WARM 201 0.166 86.9 5.9% 7.8% 371 7.9% 18.2% 10.4% 34

6 Sam Antonacci 33 D — COOL 217 0.129 87.8 7.1% 9.4% 405 8.7% 10.0% 7.1% 38

7 Chase Meidroth 29 D — COOL 233 0.116 87.7 5.7% 13.3%vs LHP 376 6.8% 8.3% 6.1% 33

8 Luisangel Acuna 22 D — COOL 258 0.033 89.5 5.6% 0.0%vs LHP 416 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 8

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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