TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.83×

MIL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 32 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 4 mph slight_out 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

1:15p

+2 ↑

2:15p

+3 ↑

3:15p

+3 ↑

4:15p

+2 ↑

5:15p

the 3:15p window peaks +3

Best of game Jordan Walker conv 22 · vs Misiorowski ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs Proxy → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 87

0.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jordan Walker +475 D ●●●○○

2 Nathan Church +950 D ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +525 D ●●○○○

FADE STL Bullpen Proxy

leak 55

1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +525 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +525 C ●●●●○

3 Jackson Chourio +525 C ●●●○○

FADE MIL Bullpen Proxy

leak 34

0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathan Church +950 D ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +475 C ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: Match 24.5% · 14D pace 23.1% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jake Bauers ✶ vs Proxy +525 0.263 · 92.6 · 12.8% 23.1% 24.5% F B O C 58

· — Jackson Chourio vs Proxy +525 0.239 · 92.3 · 14.5% 23.1% 22.3% F B O C 57

· — Garrett Mitchell HOT vs Proxy +625 0.191 · 93.2 · 15.4% 27.3% 18.0% F B O C 52

· — Jordan Walker vs Proxy +475 0.241 · 93.9 · 14.0% 16.7% 21.7% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 25 long shots

· STL Jordan Walker vs Misiorowski +475 0.241 · 93.9 · 6.7% 16.7% 26.6% F B O D 46

· STL Nathan Church vs Misiorowski Edge +950 0.162 · 86.3 · 5.4% 27.3% 13.8% F B O D 34

· — Nathan Church vs Proxy +950 0.162 · 86.3 · 9.0% 27.3% 12.7% F B O D 39

· — William Contreras vs Proxy +750 0.144 · 90.5 · 7.2% 18.2% 8.9% F B O D 37

· STL Alec Burleson vs Misiorowski Edge +525 0.190 · 91.6 · 5.9% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 37

· — Alec Burleson vs Proxy +525 0.190 · 91.6 · 10.8% 11.1% 8.8% F B O D 44

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Proxy +625 0.191 · 90.9 · 8.2% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 41

· STL José Fermín vs Misiorowski — 0.118 · 85.3 · 2.4% 11.1% 7.1% F B O D 24

· — José Fermín vs Proxy — 0.118 · 85.3 · 1.8% 11.1% 5.4% F B O D 24

· — Christian Yelich vs Proxy +625 0.134 · 88.9 · 7.7% 8.3% 7.0% F B O D 35

· STL Masyn Winn vs Misiorowski — 0.091 · 87.4 · 3.4% 8.3% 6.9% F B O D 22

· — Masyn Winn vs Proxy — 0.091 · 87.4 · 3.5% 8.3% 5.3% F B O D 23

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Misiorowski +750 0.152 · 89.7 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 26

· — Ivan Herrera COOL vs Proxy +750 0.152 · 89.7 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +700 0.144 · 90.1 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 27

· — Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Proxy +700 0.144 · 90.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 32

· — David Hamilton COOL vs Proxy — 0.100 · 86.7 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 26

· — Sal Frelick vs Proxy — 0.092 · 85.8 · 2.2% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 22

· — Joey Ortiz COOL vs Proxy — 0.057 · 87.8 · 3.3% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 76.9% ← leak BRK 20.9% OFF 2.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jordan Walker R

14.1% 12.7% 19.2% 14.2% D 46 +475

156

Alec Burleson L Edge

10.9% 12.8% 8.1% 10.9% D 37 +525

180

Nathan Church L Edge

10.7% 7.1% 7.7% 8.8% D 34 +950

217

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

11.2% 4.2% 2.6% 8.1% D 27 +700

221

Ivan Herrera R

6.3% 7.3% 9.1% 7.0% D 26 +750

228

José Fermín R

1.3% 3.6% 0.0% 1.6% D 24 —

235

Masyn Winn R

4.0% 2.4% 3.6% 3.4% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.9% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for STL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for MIL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Walker Church Bauers Bauers Chourio Chourio Mitchell Mitchell Contreras Contreras Walker Church

Legend

attack side — vs Misiorowski fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 6

Jake Bauers +525 · 58

Jackson Chourio +525 · 57

Garrett Mitchell +625 · 52

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 4 mph slight_out 73°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

80°F

1:15p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

82°F

2:15p

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

3:15p · peak

↑

9 mph · out

85°F

4:15p

↑

8 mph · out

84°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.83× 73°F, wind 5 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.58 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 46 D +475 WARM 89 0.241 93.9 6.7% 31.9%vs RHP 407 18.4% 16.7% 26.6% 22

2 Alec Burleson 37 D +525 · 156 0.190 91.6 5.9% 22.8%vs RHP 404 16.9% 11.1% 9.6% 33

3 Nathan Church 34 D +950 · 180 0.162 86.3 5.4% 23.1%vs RHP 388 10.5% 27.3% 13.8% 27

4 Jj Wetherholt 27 D +700 COOL 217 0.144 90.1 4.8% 17.9%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 39

5 Ivan Herrera 26 D +750 COOL 221 0.152 89.7 4.5% 17.6%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 28

6 José Fermín 24 D — WARM 228 0.118 85.3 2.4% 15.4%vs RHP 377 3.8% 11.1% 7.1% 27

7 Masyn Winn 22 D — · 235 0.091 87.4 3.4% 12.9%vs RHP 390 4.8% 8.3% 6.9% 30

vs STL Bullpen Proxy 1.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 18 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 58 C +525 WARM 34 0.263 92.6 12.8% 28.4% 403 20.0% 23.1% 24.5% 28

2 Jake Bauers ✶ 58 C +525 WARM 35 0.263 92.6 12.8% 28.4% 403 20.0% 23.1% 24.5% 28

3 Jackson Chourio 57 C +525 · 44 0.239 92.3 14.5% 21.9% 399 20.0% 23.1% 22.3% 36

4 Jackson Chourio 57 C +525 · 45 0.239 92.3 14.5% 21.9% 399 20.0% 23.1% 22.3% 36

5 Garrett Mitchell 52 C +625 HOT 71 0.191 93.2 15.4% 22.9% 415 10.4% 27.3% 18.0% 24

6 Garrett Mitchell 52 C +625 HOT 72 0.191 93.2 15.4% 22.9% 415 10.4% 27.3% 18.0% 24

7 Brice Turang 41 D +625 COOL 150 0.191 90.9 8.2% 23.6% 407 10.5% 7.7% 10.8% 42

8 Brice Turang 41 D +625 COOL 151 0.191 90.9 8.2% 23.6% 407 10.5% 7.7% 10.8% 42

9 William Contreras 37 D +750 · 186 0.144 90.5 7.2% 12.5% 419 11.1% 18.2% 8.9% 32

10 William Contreras 37 D +750 · 187 0.144 90.5 7.2% 12.5% 419 11.1% 18.2% 8.9% 32

11 Christian Yelich 35 D +625 WARM 197 0.134 88.9 7.7% 16.7% 402 7.5% 8.3% 7.0% 23

12 Christian Yelich 35 D +625 WARM 198 0.134 88.9 7.7% 16.7% 402 7.5% 8.3% 7.0% 23

13 David Hamilton 26 D — COOL 232 0.100 86.7 3.9% 5.9% 383 4.5% 0.0% 5.8% 16

14 David Hamilton 26 D — COOL 233 0.100 86.7 3.9% 5.9% 383 4.5% 0.0% 5.8% 16

15 Sal Frelick 22 D — WARM 240 0.092 85.8 2.2% 4.4% 402 2.8% 0.0% 5.6% 27

16 Sal Frelick 22 D — WARM 241 0.092 85.8 2.2% 4.4% 402 2.8% 0.0% 5.6% 27

17 Joey Ortiz 22 D — COOL 242 0.057 87.8 3.3% 4.4% 404 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 21

18 Joey Ortiz 22 D — COOL 243 0.057 87.8 3.3% 4.4% 404 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 21

vs MIL Bullpen Proxy 0.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 55 C +475 WARM 59 0.241 93.9 14.0% 26.6% 407 18.4% 16.7% 21.7% 22

2 Alec Burleson 44 D +525 · 130 0.190 91.6 10.8% 14.3% 404 16.9% 11.1% 8.8% 33

3 Nathan Church 39 D +950 · 172 0.162 86.3 9.0% 14.8% 388 10.5% 27.3% 12.7% 27

4 Jj Wetherholt 32 D +700 COOL 214 0.144 90.1 7.1% 13.3% 387 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 39

5 Ivan Herrera 29 D +750 COOL 223 0.152 89.7 6.3% 14.7% 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 28

6 José Fermín 24 D — WARM 237 0.118 85.3 1.8% 6.7% 377 3.8% 11.1% 5.4% 27

7 Masyn Winn 23 D — · 238 0.091 87.4 3.5% 5.9% 390 4.8% 8.3% 5.3% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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