TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ MIA

Playable air · 1.07×

SEA @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Owen Caissie conv 26 · vs Woo ⟷ Dominic Canzone conv 27 · vs Meyer → edge: Dominic Canzone

ATTACK Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 26

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · leakiest side of this game

1 Owen Caissie — C ●●●●○

2 Otto Lopez — D ●●●●○

3 Joe Mack — D ●●●●○

FADE Max Meyer RHP · MIA

leak 20

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dominic Canzone — C+ ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena — D ●●●○○

3 Cole Young — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dominic Canzone: Match 29.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Dominic Canzone ✶ vs Meyer Edge — 0.284 · 93.0 · 11.6% 25.0% 29.8% F B O C+ 64

· MIA Owen Caissie HOT vs Woo Edge — 0.204 · 91.6 · 10.6% 27.3% 24.4% F B O C 55

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Woo Edge — 0.225 · 91.5 · 9.1% 18.2% 25.8% F B O C 54

· SEA Luke Raley vs Meyer Edge — 0.233 · 90.9 · 12.0% 0.0% 17.3% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Woo — 0.170 · 89.6 · 7.2% 33.3% 16.7% F B O D 47

· MIA Joe Mack vs Woo Edge — 0.183 · 89.3 · 8.2% 25.0% 20.7% F B O D 48

· SEA Randy Arozarena COOL vs Meyer — 0.169 · 91.2 · 8.2% 16.7% 16.7% F B O D 48

· SEA Cole Young vs Meyer Edge — 0.144 · 88.2 · 6.7% 16.7% 14.3% F B O D 43

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Meyer Edge — 0.147 · 88.0 · 9.8% 16.7% 14.2% F B O D 48

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Meyer Edge — 0.212 · 86.3 · 7.2% 10.0% 16.8% F B O D 48

· MIA Griffin Conine vs Woo Edge — 0.221 · 89.1 · 9.4% 0.0% 20.2% F B O D 46

· MIA Javier Sanoja HOT vs Woo — 0.135 · 87.6 · 3.4% 11.1% 6.9% F B O D 35

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Woo Edge — 0.101 · 86.6 · 5.0% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 34

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Woo Edge — 0.168 · 85.3 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 41

· SEA Victor Robles COOL vs Meyer — 0.066 · 85.0 · 5.1% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 35

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Meyer Edge — 0.107 · 87.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Woo Edge — 0.126 · 87.0 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 55.8% FB 33.4% OFF 10.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L Edge

19.4% 18.3% 8.5% 15.8% C+ 64 —

Luke Raley L Edge

16.1% 20.0% 7.4% 16.8% C 56 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Colt Emerson L Edge

4.2% 7.3% 5.9% 6.1% D 48 —

Randy Arozarena R

7.8% 9.2% 5.3% 8.1% D 48 —

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.1% 11.1% 12.1% 11.3% D 48 —

127

Cole Young L Edge

11.1% 6.1% 0.0% 6.2% D 43 —

185

Josh Naylor L Edge

8.2% 4.4% 2.1% 4.8% D 37 —

203

Victor Robles R

0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 4.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Meyer's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.8% ← leak BRK 27.8% OFF 6.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Owen Caissie L Edge

17.5% 7.7% 21.4% 15.4% C 55 —

Kyle Stowers L Edge

14.0% 12.5% 3.2% 11.6% C 54 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Joe Mack L Edge

9.8% 6.2% 15.4% 9.4% D 48 —

Otto Lopez R

10.6% 4.5% 2.3% 7.3% D 47 —

Griffin Conine L Edge

19.0% 5.6% 16.7% 13.3% D 46 —

149

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 3.8% D 41 —

204

Javier Sanoja R

0.9% 3.1% 0.0% 1.5% D 35 —

205

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.6% 3.1% 1.9% 4.4% D 35 —

212

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.2% 0.0% 8.3% 3.4% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.8% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Emerson Arozarena Raleigh Young Caissie Stowers Mack Lopez

Legend

attack side — vs Woo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Dominic Canzone — · 64

Owen Caissie — · 55

Joe Mack — · 48

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Meyer · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone ✶ 64 C+ — · 12 0.284 93.0 11.6% 30.9%vs RHP 399 17.6% 25.0% 29.8% 18

2 Luke Raley 56 C — · 35 0.233 90.9 12.0% 34.2%vs RHP 385 15.6% 0.0% 17.3% 16

3 Colt Emerson 48 D — WARM 80 0.212 86.3 7.2% 41.7%vs RHP 369 16.0% 10.0% 16.8% 22

4 Randy Arozarena 48 D — COOL 81 0.169 91.2 8.2% 22.9%vs RHP 393 10.1% 16.7% 16.7% 31

5 Cal Raleigh 48 D — WARM 85 0.147 88.0 9.8% 14.8%vs RHP 390 13.4% 16.7% 14.2% 25

6 Cole Young 43 D — · 127 0.144 88.2 6.7% 13.5%vs RHP 390 9.3% 16.7% 14.3% 33

7 Josh Naylor 37 D — COOL 185 0.107 87.5 6.5% 13.5%vs RHP 390 8.6% 0.0% 7.7% 42

8 Victor Robles 35 D — COOL 203 0.066 85.0 5.1% 6.7%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 18

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 55 C — HOT 38 0.204 91.6 10.6% 28.2%vs RHP 396 14.8% 27.3% 24.4% 16

2 Kyle Stowers 54 C — WARM 43 0.225 91.5 9.1% 24.4%vs RHP 395 11.3% 18.2% 25.8% 29

3 Joe Mack 48 D — WARM 79 0.183 89.3 8.2% 23.1%vs RHP 413 14.3% 25.0% 20.7% 25

4 Otto Lopez 47 D — COOL 88 0.170 89.6 7.2% 13.2%vs RHP 402 9.1% 33.3% 16.7% 47

5 Griffin Conine 46 D — WARM 99 0.221 89.1 9.4% 60.0%vs RHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 20

6 Liam Hicks 41 D — COOL 149 0.168 85.3 5.3% 23.5%vs RHP 376 16.4% 0.0% 11.3% 28

7 Javier Sanoja 35 D — HOT 204 0.135 87.6 3.4% 4.8%vs RHP 385 5.6% 11.1% 6.9% 35

8 Xavier Edwards 35 D — COOL 205 0.126 87.0 5.7% 3.9%vs RHP 396 5.7% 0.0% 6.7% 42

9 Jakob Marsee 34 D — · 212 0.101 86.6 5.0% 8.7%vs RHP 379 7.0% 8.3% 7.2% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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