TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.79×

TOR @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.79× Wind 12 mph slight_out 55°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:45p

+1 ↑

7:45p

+0 ↑

8:45p

+1 ↑

9:45p

+0 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +1

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 29 · vs Proxy ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 19 · vs McDonald → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK TOR Bullpen Proxy · TOR

leak 63

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +500 C ●●●●●

2 Heliot Ramos +625 C ●●●●○

3 Bryce Eldridge +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Trevor McDonald RHP · SF

leak 3

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +575 D ●●●○○

2 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●●○○○

3 Daulton Varsho +700 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 20.1% · 14D pace 38.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Proxy +500 0.230 · 92.0 · 11.5% 38.5% 20.1% F B O C 55

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Proxy +625 0.181 · 92.2 · 15.1% 37.5% 15.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs McDonald +575 0.211 · 91.7 · 8.3% 25.0% 12.8% F B O D 47

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Proxy +850 0.202 · 92.1 · 12.6% 20.0% 10.2% F B O D 48

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs McDonald Edge +950 0.108 · 86.5 · 2.5% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 27

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Proxy — 0.139 · 85.2 · 2.2% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 28

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Proxy +575 0.213 · 89.7 · 12.4% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 49

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Proxy +575 0.198 · 88.4 · 9.1% 7.7% 10.2% F B O D 43

· TOR Daulton Varsho COOL vs McDonald Edge +700 0.154 · 86.0 · 5.5% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 33

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Proxy — 0.140 · 87.3 · 2.5% 7.7% 6.4% F B O D 27

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs McDonald Edge — 0.174 · 88.7 · 6.1% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 35

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs McDonald Edge — 0.137 · 86.4 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 26

· TOR George Springer COOL vs McDonald +700 0.161 · 88.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 33

· SF Luis Arraez vs Proxy — 0.133 · 87.3 · 0.6% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 21

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs McDonald — 0.133 · 85.4 · 3.3% 0.0% 4.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.6% BRK 26.7% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.3% 8.5% 17.6% 14.2% D 47 +575

178

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.9% 21.1% 13.6% 8.1% D 35 —

192

Daulton Varsho L Edge

8.8% 1.6% 7.4% 6.4% D 33 +700

193

George Springer R

9.0% 4.7% 10.0% 7.7% D 33 +700

219

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.6% 3.3% 1.3% D 27 +950

220

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.3% D 27 —

222

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.3% 2.9% 6.5% 3.6% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads McDonald's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for TOR Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Devers Ramos Eldridge

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +500 · 55

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.79× Wind 12 mph slight_out 55°F open

↑

15 mph · slight_out

63°F

6:45p · peak

↑

15 mph · slight_out

60°F

7:45p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

59°F

8:45p

↑

14 mph · slight_out

58°F

9:45p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

57°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.79× 55°F, wind 12 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Trevor McDonald · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 47 D +575 COOL 87 0.211 91.7 8.3% 30.4%vs RHP 400 19.7% 25.0% 12.8% 29

2 Brandon Valenzuela 35 D — COOL 178 0.174 88.7 6.1% 21.7%vs RHP 397 10.7% 0.0% 10.6% 9

3 Daulton Varsho 33 D +700 COOL 192 0.154 86.0 5.5% 13.6%vs RHP 386 8.2% 9.1% 8.4% 27

4 George Springer 33 D +700 COOL 193 0.161 88.2 5.8% 20.6%vs RHP 392 9.3% 0.0% 6.3% 18

5 Nathan Lukes 27 D +950 WARM 219 0.108 86.5 2.5% 15.4%vs RHP 378 5.7% 16.7% 8.5% 35

6 Ernie Clement 27 D — COOL 220 0.133 85.4 3.3% 7.1%vs RHP 374 8.3% 0.0% 4.3% 35

7 Andres Gimenez 26 D — COOL 222 0.137 86.4 4.1% 12.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 23

vs TOR Bullpen Proxy 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 55 C +500 WARM 60 0.230 92.0 11.5% 18.0% 403 17.1% 38.5% 20.1% 35

2 Heliot Ramos 51 C +625 WARM 82 0.181 92.2 15.1% 16.7% 406 13.2% 37.5% 15.6% 22

3 Casey Schmitt 49 D +575 · 94 0.213 89.7 12.4% 14.2% 394 16.5% 8.3% 10.5% 38

4 Bryce Eldridge 48 D +850 WARM 97 0.202 92.1 12.6% 16.3% 398 20.8% 20.0% 10.2% 25

5 Willy Adames 43 D +575 COOL 137 0.198 88.4 9.1% 13.2% 389 14.0% 7.7% 10.2% 19

6 Drew Gilbert 28 D — WARM 227 0.139 85.2 2.2% 9.1% 393 4.5% 11.1% 8.0% 16

7 Jung Hoo Lee 27 D — COOL 229 0.140 87.3 2.5% 8.8% 378 5.0% 7.7% 6.4% 41

8 Luis Arraez 21 D — WARM 244 0.133 87.3 0.6% 3.5% 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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