TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ TEX

Suppressed air · 0.94×

LAA @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph out 78°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+13 ↑

7:05p

+7 ↑

8:05p

+1 ↑

9:05p

-3 ↑

10:05p

-1 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +13

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 47 · vs Soriano ⟷ Zach Neto conv 20 · vs deGrom → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 97

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +425 C ●●●●●

2 Jake Burger +500 D ●●●○○

3 Brandon Nimmo +500 D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 89

1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zach Neto +400 C ●●●○○

2 Josh Lowe +425 D ●●●○○

3 Jorge Soler +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 62.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ HOT vs Soriano Edge +425 0.229 · 92.1 · 10.2% 62.5% 31.3% F B O C 59

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs deGrom +400 0.226 · 89.7 · 10.5% 20.0% 20.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· LAA Josh Lowe vs deGrom Edge +425 0.149 · 89.8 · 8.9% 20.0% 16.9% F B O D 43

· TEX Jake Burger vs Soriano +500 0.191 · 90.1 · 9.2% 20.0% 15.6% F B O D 48

· LAA Jorge Soler vs deGrom +425 0.197 · 88.4 · 9.7% 10.0% 15.1% F B O D 47

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Soriano Edge +500 0.159 · 92.5 · 11.0% 12.5% 10.7% F B O D 46

· LAA Jo Adell COOL vs deGrom +500 0.138 · 90.1 · 8.2% 10.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

· TEX Josh Jung vs Soriano — 0.148 · 90.4 · 7.2% 10.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

· LAA Nolan Schanuel COOL vs deGrom Edge +850 0.117 · 87.1 · 4.3% 9.1% 8.2% F B O D 31

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Soriano +850 0.146 · 88.8 · 6.9% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 39

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Soriano Edge +750 0.143 · 87.9 · 8.1% 0.0% 16.4% F B O D 40

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs deGrom — 0.143 · 87.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs deGrom — 0.131 · 89.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 36

· LAA Logan O'Hoppe COOL vs deGrom +575 0.106 · 86.3 · 9.3% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· TEX Alejandro Osuna vs Soriano Edge +950 0.025 · 87.5 · — 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 17

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.2% ← leak BRK 41.7% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Zach Neto R

15.9% 10.1% 4.0% 12.7% C 54 +400

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jorge Soler R

14.0% 11.8% 0.0% 11.9% D 47 +425

113

Josh Lowe L Edge

13.3% 2.8% 5.0% 8.6% D 43 +425

141

Jo Adell R

9.0% 6.2% 6.5% 7.9% D 39 +500

159

Oswald Peraza R

6.9% 8.3% 13.0% 8.1% D 37 —

166

Vaughn Grissom R

7.2% 7.5% 0.0% 6.2% D 36 —

175

Logan O'Hoppe R

9.6% 7.8% 15.4% 9.5% D 35 +575

203

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 31 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.2% usage) carries deGrom's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.0% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 19.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

15.9% 10.0% 4.7% 11.6% C 59 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

7.6% 12.2% 11.5% 9.8% D 48 +500

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

10.5% 18.6% 16.2% 13.5% D 46 +500

131

Evan Carter L Edge

9.3% 5.7% 0.0% 7.0% D 40 +750

135

Josh Jung R

7.8% 3.4% 0.0% 5.6% D 40 —

142

Ezequiel Duran R

8.0% 5.5% 0.0% 6.0% D 39 +850

245

Alejandro Osuna L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 17 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.0% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Lowe Pederson Burger

Legend

attack side — vs Soriano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson +425 · 59

Zach Neto +400 · 54

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph out 78°F retractable

+13

↑

16 mph · out

79°F

7:05p · peak

↑

14 mph · slight_out

84°F

8:05p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

89°F

9:05p

-3

↑

9 mph · cross

93°F

10:05p

-1

↑

10 mph · cross

89°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 78°F, wind 4 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.73 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 54 C +400 COOL 39 0.226 89.7 10.5% 21.9%vs RHP 402 20.2% 20.0% 20.5% 30

2 Jorge Soler 47 D +425 WARM 83 0.197 88.4 9.7% 34.4%vs RHP 398 14.7% 10.0% 15.1% 23

3 Josh Lowe 43 D +425 WARM 113 0.149 89.8 8.9% 17.5%vs RHP 395 11.5% 20.0% 16.9% 22

4 Jo Adell 39 D +500 COOL 141 0.138 90.1 8.2% 10.9%vs RHP 412 10.7% 10.0% 8.0% 31

5 Oswald Peraza 37 D — COOL 159 0.143 87.4 8.4% 10.5%vs RHP 386 7.8% 0.0% 8.3% 11

6 Vaughn Grissom 36 D — COOL 166 0.131 89.6 7.4% 15.4%vs RHP 396 7.4% 0.0% 8.2% 15

7 Logan O'Hoppe 35 D +575 COOL 175 0.106 86.3 9.3% 13.8%vs RHP 408 4.2% 0.0% 8.0% 18

8 Nolan Schanuel 31 D +850 COOL 203 0.117 87.1 4.3% 12.1%vs RHP 372 8.2% 9.1% 8.2% 34

vs José Soriano · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 59 C +425 HOT 18 0.229 92.1 10.2% 29.2%vs RHP 392 19.7% 62.5% 31.3% 23

2 Jake Burger 48 D +500 · 78 0.191 90.1 9.2% 25.5%vs RHP 396 15.0% 20.0% 15.6% 29

3 Brandon Nimmo 46 D +500 WARM 91 0.159 92.5 11.0% 13.3%vs RHP 411 8.9% 12.5% 10.7% 22

4 Evan Carter 40 D +750 COOL 131 0.143 87.9 8.1% 14.3%vs RHP 377 10.0% 0.0% 16.4% 12

5 Josh Jung 40 D — WARM 135 0.148 90.4 7.2% 16.3%vs RHP 386 11.1% 10.0% 7.8% 28

6 Ezequiel Duran 39 D +850 COOL 142 0.146 88.8 6.9% 16.7%vs RHP 377 10.6% 9.1% 7.7% 40

7 Alejandro Osuna 17 D +950 · 245 0.025 87.5 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

12 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.