TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIN

Neutral air · 1.04×

CLE @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 1 mph slight_out 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+6 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +8

Best of game Kyle Manzardo conv 10 · vs Bradley ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 39 · vs Cantillo → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 85

1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Manzardo +390 D ●●○○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +700 D ●○○○○

3 Travis Bazzana +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Joey Cantillo LHP · CLE

leak 77

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Josh Bell +475 C ●●●●○

3 Luke Keaschall +950 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Cantillo +400 0.255 · 92.7 · 10.5% 50.0% 27.3% F B O C+ 65

· MIN Josh Bell vs Cantillo Edge +475 0.180 · 89.7 · 9.6% 30.0% 18.8% F B O C 53

· MIN Byron Buxton vs Cantillo Edge +255 0.316 · 90.7 · 12.5% 0.0% 18.5% F B O C+ 67

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Cantillo Edge +950 0.100 · 84.5 · 4.9% 22.2% 12.1% F B O D 37

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Cantillo Edge +575 0.187 · 87.9 · 5.9% 18.2% 14.4% F B O D 48

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Cantillo — 0.158 · 87.0 · 7.9% 11.1% 11.5% F B O D 44

· CLE Kyle Manzardo COOL vs Bradley Edge +390 0.161 · 88.9 · 10.6% 9.1% 11.8% F B O D 48

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Cantillo Edge +425 0.160 · 89.0 · 10.0% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 49

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Bradley Edge +700 0.124 · 86.2 · 4.9% 10.0% 8.4% F B O D 36

· MIN Victor Caratini HOT vs Cantillo Edge +625 0.143 · 89.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 14.4% F B O D 41

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Bradley Edge +525 0.186 · 88.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 44

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Bradley Edge +500 0.169 · 90.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 42

· CLE Rhys Hoskins COOL vs Bradley — 0.169 · 88.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 47

· CLE Daniel Schneemann HOT vs Bradley Edge — 0.132 · 88.0 · 8.8% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 42

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Cantillo Edge +850 0.078 · 86.7 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Bradley Edge — 0.056 · 83.1 · 2.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 71.6% ← leak OFF 18.7% BRK 9.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

12.9% 9.7% 9.8% 11.5% D 48 +390

Rhys Hoskins R

7.4% 16.7% 13.3% 9.6% D 47 —

Travis Bazzana L Edge

6.4% 0.0% 5.3% 5.4% D 44 +525

120

Chase Delauter L Edge

7.7% 2.1% 6.9% 6.4% D 42 +500

124

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

12.0% 0.0% 6.5% 8.4% D 42 —

165

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.4% 0.0% 4.2% 2.7% D 36 +700

225

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (71.6% usage) carries Bradley's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.6% ← leak BRK 31.2% OFF 27.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Byron Buxton R Edge

21.7% 17.5% 14.8% 19.7% C+ 67 +255

Kody Clemens L

10.6% 19.2% 12.5% 13.0% C+ 65 +400

Josh Bell S Edge

11.2% 14.3% 6.9% 10.9% C 53 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R Edge

14.6% 10.9% 5.0% 12.3% D 49 +425

Brooks Lee S Edge

8.2% 1.3% 1.4% 4.4% D 48 +575

102

Trevor Larnach L

9.7% 7.0% 3.4% 8.2% D 44 —

126

Victor Caratini S Edge

7.4% 13.0% 7.4% 8.2% D 41 +625

155

Luke Keaschall R Edge

3.4% 4.0% 0.0% 3.2% D 37 +950

195

Austin Martin R Edge

3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 32 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.6% usage) carries Cantillo's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Bell Lee Keaschall

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kody Clemens +400 · 65

Josh Bell +475 · 53

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 1 mph slight_out 66°F open

↑

5 mph · out

88°F

6:40p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

85°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · out

82°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

79°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 66°F, wind 1 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.17 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Manzardo 48 D +390 COOL 81 0.161 88.9 10.6% 22.7%vs RHP 389 11.4% 9.1% 11.8% 25

2 Rhys Hoskins 47 D — COOL 84 0.169 88.3 10.0% 21.1%vs RHP 378 10.8% 0.0% 10.8% 10

3 Travis Bazzana 44 D +525 COOL 99 0.186 88.6 6.4% 20.0%vs RHP 395 11.1% 0.0% 13.2% 32

4 Chase Delauter 42 D +500 WARM 120 0.169 90.4 7.1% 24.3%vs RHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 30

5 Daniel Schneemann 42 D — HOT 124 0.132 88.0 8.8% 13.2%vs RHP 398 7.0% 0.0% 8.6% 21

6 Brayan Rocchio 36 D +700 COOL 165 0.124 86.2 4.9% 12.2%vs RHP 382 6.1% 10.0% 8.4% 34

7 Steven Kwan 25 D — COOL 225 0.056 83.1 2.0% 2.0%vs RHP 381 1.3% 0.0% 7.0% 35

vs Joey Cantillo · LHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton 67 C+ +255 · 5 0.316 90.7 12.5% 28.6%vs LHP 402 31.5% 0.0% 18.5% 22

2 Kody Clemens ✶ 65 C+ +400 WARM 9 0.255 92.7 10.5% 20.0%vs LHP 390 21.3% 50.0% 27.3% 30

3 Josh Bell 53 C +475 WARM 49 0.180 89.7 9.6% 12.0%vs LHP 404 12.3% 30.0% 18.8% 33

4 Royce Lewis 49 D +425 COOL 69 0.160 89.0 10.0% 16.7%vs LHP 394 16.3% 9.1% 10.5% 32

5 Brooks Lee 48 D +575 WARM 79 0.187 87.9 5.9% 15.4%vs LHP 367 16.0% 18.2% 14.4% 34

6 Trevor Larnach 44 D — WARM 102 0.158 87.0 7.9% 28.6%vs LHP 398 6.9% 11.1% 11.5% 29

7 Victor Caratini 41 D +625 HOT 126 0.143 89.3 8.1% 15.4%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% 26

8 Luke Keaschall 37 D +950 COOL 155 0.100 84.5 4.9% 4.8%vs LHP 370 5.3% 22.2% 12.1% 23

9 Austin Martin 32 D +850 COOL 195 0.078 86.7 4.4% 4.5%vs LHP 392 2.0% 0.0% 7.2% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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