TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ TB

Neutral air · 1.02×

NYY @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Ben Rice conv 32 · vs Seymour ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 52 · vs Warren → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Ian Seymour LHP · TB

leak 96

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●●

2 Max Schuemann — C ●●●●●

3 Trent Grisham — C ●●●●○

FADE Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 70

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins — D ●●●●○

3 Jonathan Aranda — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 69.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Warren — 0.264 · 93.3 · 9.8% 69.2% 34.0% F B O C+ 67

· NYY Ben Rice vs Seymour — 0.294 · 91.8 · 10.9% 25.0% 39.2% F B O C+ 68

· NYY Max Schuemann HOT vs Seymour Edge — 0.265 · 89.2 · 12.0% 40.0% 22.3% F B O C 55

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Seymour — 0.180 · 90.9 · 9.6% 25.0% 22.3% F B O C 51

· NYY Amed Rosario vs Seymour Edge — 0.222 · 90.7 · 9.7% 16.7% 21.6% F B O C 53

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.238 · 86.8 · 9.7% 11.1% 26.1% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Warren Edge — 0.135 · 88.4 · 5.3% 36.4% 15.3% F B O D 42

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.172 · 90.7 · 8.4% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 46

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.086 · 85.9 · 5.0% 10.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Seymour Edge — 0.132 · 84.2 · 5.8% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 36

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Seymour — 0.170 · 89.0 · 7.5% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 45

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Warren — 0.164 · 90.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 11.3% F B O D 39

· NYY Ali Sanchez COOL vs Seymour Edge — 0.107 · 83.1 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 38

· TB Hunter Feduccia vs Warren Edge — 0.076 · 91.3 · 7.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 36

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.061 · 84.1 · — 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 19

· TB Taylor Walls vs Warren Edge — 0.073 · 85.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 38.3% ← leak OFF 32.0% BRK 27.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 5

Ben Rice L

16.5% 13.2% 9.9% 14.0% C+ 68 —

Paul Goldschmidt R Edge

15.2% 10.7% 6.2% 12.0% C 56 —

Max Schuemann R Edge

40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% C 55 —

Amed Rosario R Edge

8.8% 10.7% 12.5% 10.0% C 53 —

Trent Grisham L

12.5% 6.5% 12.1% 11.5% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

106

Cody Bellinger L

3.6% 9.4% 13.6% 6.8% D 45 —

175

Ali Sanchez R Edge

6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% D 38 —

188

Jose Caballero R Edge

— — — — D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (38.3% usage) carries Seymour's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.6% ← leak BRK 23.4% OFF 10.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.5% 12.4% 5.9% 13.7% C+ 67 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

102

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.7% 13.2% 6.5% 9.8% D 46 —

138

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.8% 0.0% 10.0% 3.9% D 42 —

162

Yandy Diaz R

5.2% 12.8% 2.8% 7.4% D 39 —

196

Hunter Feduccia L Edge

13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% D 36 —

220

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.8% 2.5% 4.2% 4.1% D 32 —

232

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% D 29 —

262

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 19 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.6% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Schuemann Rosario Grisham Caminero Mullins

Legend

attack side — vs Seymour fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Junior Caminero — · 67

Ben Rice — · 68

Max Schuemann — · 55

Trent Grisham — · 51

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.02× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.02× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ian Seymour · LHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 68 C+ — · 3 0.294 91.8 10.9% 40.0%vs LHP 389 25.9% 25.0% 39.2% 35

2 Paul Goldschmidt 56 C — COOL 31 0.238 86.8 9.7% 36.4%vs LHP 391 18.0% 11.1% 26.1% 26

3 Max Schuemann 55 C — HOT 40 0.265 89.2 12.0% 12.5%vs LHP 415 22.2% 40.0% 22.3% 8

4 Amed Rosario 53 C — · 54 0.222 90.7 9.7% 17.4%vs LHP 392 13.6% 16.7% 21.6% 18

5 Trent Grisham 51 C — WARM 65 0.180 90.9 9.6% 15.4%vs LHP 388 9.4% 25.0% 22.3% 9

6 Cody Bellinger 45 D — COOL 106 0.170 89.0 7.5% 16.7%vs LHP 379 11.0% 0.0% 12.7% 31

7 Ali Sanchez 38 D — COOL 175 0.107 83.1 6.6% 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 6

8 Jose Caballero 36 D — WARM 188 0.132 84.2 5.8% 36.4%vs LHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 27

vs Will Warren · RHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 67 C+ — WARM 7 0.264 93.3 9.8% 41.2%vs RHP 407 27.1% 69.2% 34.0% 40

2 Jonathan Aranda 46 D — COOL 102 0.172 90.7 8.4% 21.0%vs RHP 391 13.3% 7.7% 11.6% 39

3 Cedric Mullins 42 D — WARM 138 0.135 88.4 5.3% 20.8%vs RHP 393 13.0% 36.4% 15.3% 31

4 Yandy Diaz 39 D — COOL 162 0.164 90.8 7.1% 22.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 11.3% 34

5 Hunter Feduccia 36 D — WARM 196 0.076 91.3 7.6% 5.3%vs RHP 421 3.3% 0.0% 7.0% 18

6 Richie Palacios 32 D — COOL 220 0.086 85.9 5.0% 7.4%vs RHP 396 2.4% 10.0% 7.3% 31

7 Taylor Walls 29 D — WARM 232 0.073 85.0 4.8% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 30

8 Chandler Simpson 19 D — COOL 262 0.061 84.1 — 4.2%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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