TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.33×

COL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 3 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+9 ↑

9:10p

+9 ↑

10:10p

+9 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Mookie Betts conv 20 · vs Lorenzen ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 33 · vs Wrobleski → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Michael Lorenzen RHP · COL

leak 92

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mookie Betts — C ●●●○○

2 Shohei Ohtani +186 C+ ●●●○○

3 Max Muncy +255 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Justin Wrobleski LHP · LAD

leak 5

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — B ●●●●●

2 Mickey Moniak +400 C+ ●●●●●

3 Kyle Karros +525 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Wrobleski Edge — 0.299 · 91.1 · 11.7% 33.3% 33.6% F B O B 73

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Wrobleski +400 0.312 · 90.0 · 10.6% 25.0% 39.0% F B O C+ 67

· COL Kyle Karros vs Wrobleski Edge +525 0.166 · 89.6 · 8.2% 27.3% 15.6% F B O C 51

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Lorenzen — 0.190 · 90.8 · 8.6% 23.1% 17.9% F B O C 58

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Lorenzen Edge +186 0.233 · 93.6 · 11.8% 15.4% 23.5% F B O C+ 68

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +255 0.237 · 90.2 · 10.8% 13.3% 21.8% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +305 0.206 · 90.7 · 9.8% 15.4% 17.7% F B O C+ 61

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Lorenzen +320 0.199 · 89.2 · 8.6% 7.7% 15.9% F B O C 57

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Wrobleski Edge +425 0.277 · 86.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 17.5% F B O C 54

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Lorenzen — 0.179 · 90.2 · 9.4% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +500 0.140 · 87.2 · 7.7% 27.3% 10.9% F B O D 47

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Wrobleski +750 0.209 · 85.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 30.2% F B O D 49

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Lorenzen Edge +400 0.133 · 88.8 · 6.8% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 47

· COL Willi Castro vs Wrobleski Edge +500 0.110 · 88.2 · 7.1% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 42

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Lorenzen Edge +700 0.097 · 88.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +750 0.086 · 87.9 · 3.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 34

· COL Braxton Fulford COOL vs Wrobleski Edge +625 0.118 · 87.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.3% ← leak BRK 38.1% OFF 4.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

17.9% 17.3% 8.3% 16.7% B 73 —

Neutral · 3

Mickey Moniak L

10.4% 29.0% 3.0% 12.8% C+ 67 +400

Cole Carrigg S Edge

7.9% 8.3% 9.1% 8.2% C 54 +425

Kyle Karros R Edge

7.4% 5.5% 15.8% 7.7% C 51 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L

6.1% 1.9% 13.6% 5.9% D 49 +750

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

7.6% 9.8% 4.8% 8.1% D 47 +500

133

Braxton Fulford R Edge

9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% D 43 +625

140

Willi Castro S Edge

5.7% 6.0% 7.5% 6.2% D 42 +500

208

Tyler Freeman R Edge

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.3% usage) carries Wrobleski's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.7% ← leak BRK 29.5% OFF 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.5% 9.9% 14.3% 16.2% C+ 68 +186

Max Muncy S Edge

18.6% 14.3% 7.4% 14.6% C+ 66 +255

Freddie Freeman L Edge

11.0% 10.4% 11.4% 10.9% C+ 61 +305

Mookie Betts R

11.1% 3.9% 7.4% 8.8% C 58 —

Andy Pages R

8.2% 9.1% 6.9% 8.4% C 57 +320

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.5% 15.6% 9.1% 11.4% C 51 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L Edge

7.0% 4.0% 1.9% 5.3% D 47 +400

130

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.2% 10.3% 3.8% 6.7% D 43 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.7% usage) carries Lorenzen's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Karros Mccarthy Tovar Ohtani Muncy Freeman Betts

Legend

attack side — vs Lorenzen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman — · 73

Mickey Moniak +400 · 67

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 3 mph out 84°F open

↑

3 mph · out

63°F

7:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

63°F

8:10p

↑

3 mph · out

63°F

9:10p

↑

3 mph · out

63°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

63°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.33× 84°F, wind 3 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Justin Wrobleski · LHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.61 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 73 B — WARM 1 0.299 91.1 11.7% 38.9%vs LHP 409 26.6% 33.3% 33.6% 32

2 Mickey Moniak 67 C+ +400 · 6 0.312 90.0 10.6% 28.6%vs LHP 418 17.5% 25.0% 39.0% 28

3 Cole Carrigg 54 C +425 · 48 0.277 86.3 7.9% 25.0%vs LHP 414 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 32

4 Kyle Karros 51 C +525 WARM 67 0.166 89.6 8.2% 6.7%vs LHP 414 10.1% 27.3% 15.6% 27

5 Jake Mccarthy 49 D +750 WARM 74 0.209 85.0 7.0% 20.0%vs LHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 30.2% 48

6 Ezequiel Tovar 47 D +500 COOL 92 0.140 87.2 7.7% 0.0%vs LHP 410 8.6% 27.3% 10.9% 38

7 Braxton Fulford 43 D +625 COOL 133 0.118 87.0 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 4

8 Willi Castro 42 D +500 WARM 140 0.110 88.2 7.1% 6.2%vs LHP 425 6.0% 10.0% 7.2% 27

9 Tyler Freeman 34 D +750 COOL 208 0.086 87.9 3.0% 18.2%vs LHP 369 2.6% 0.0% 8.6% 28

vs Michael Lorenzen · RHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.51 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 68 C+ +186 · 4 0.233 93.6 11.8% 24.5%vs RHP 404 18.6% 15.4% 23.5% 37

2 Max Muncy 66 C+ +255 COOL 9 0.237 90.2 10.8% 24.3%vs RHP 409 18.6% 13.3% 21.8% 54

3 Freddie Freeman 61 C+ +305 COOL 17 0.206 90.7 9.8% 18.3%vs RHP 398 14.9% 15.4% 17.7% 43

4 Mookie Betts 58 C — WARM 27 0.190 90.8 8.6% 18.8%vs RHP 385 12.2% 23.1% 17.9% 49

5 Andy Pages 57 C +320 COOL 28 0.199 89.2 8.6% 23.1%vs RHP 389 14.8% 7.7% 15.9% 39

6 Teoscar Hernandez 51 C — WARM 64 0.179 90.2 9.4% 22.2%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 18

7 Kyle Tucker 47 D +400 WARM 94 0.133 88.8 6.8% 10.9%vs RHP 399 5.9% 10.0% 10.3% 29

8 Alex Freeland 43 D +700 COOL 130 0.097 88.4 6.9% 9.7%vs RHP 373 3.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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