TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ CIN

Neutral air · 1.01×

PHI @ CIN

Great American Ball Park · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 1 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

7:10p

+0 ↑

8:10p

+0 ↑

9:10p

+0 ↑

10:10p

+0 ↑

11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · +0 FIT

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 25 · vs Proxy ⟷ Brandon Marsh conv 26 · vs Abbott → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK PHI Bullpen Proxy

leak 68

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Spencer Steer — C ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 60

1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Marsh +500 C ●●●●○

2 Bryce Harper +320 C+ ●●●●○

3 Trea Turner +400 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 20.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Abbott +500 0.197 · 89.7 · 8.4% 30.8% 20.8% F B O C 55

· — Sal Stewart vs Proxy +350 0.210 · 91.1 · 14.5% 25.0% 24.2% F B O C+ 60

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Abbott +320 0.248 · 90.3 · 9.5% 23.1% 23.7% F B O C+ 62

· — Spencer Steer vs Proxy — 0.191 · 89.6 · 12.4% 25.0% 20.5% F B O C 54

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Abbott +1000 0.315 · 93.6 · 12.0% 8.3% 19.6% F B O C+ 68

· — Elly De La Cruz vs Proxy +350 0.213 · 94.4 · 14.3% 8.3% 15.2% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Abbott Edge +400 0.121 · 88.9 · 6.6% 23.1% 11.0% F B O D 43

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Abbott Edge +425 0.146 · 90.1 · 6.0% 16.7% 11.8% F B O D 44

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Abbott +525 0.148 · 89.1 · 7.2% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 43

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs Proxy +330 0.236 · 89.0 · 9.0% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 47

· — Nathaniel Lowe COOL vs Proxy +500 0.205 · 88.5 · 10.5% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 49

· — Tj Friedl vs Proxy +750 0.105 · 88.1 · 3.1% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 31

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Proxy +390 0.150 · 87.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 38

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 88.9 · 9.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 40

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Proxy +500 0.141 · 91.1 · 10.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 43

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Abbott Edge +475 0.126 · — · 6.3% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 36

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Abbott — 0.091 · 86.6 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.3% ← leak BRK 33.9% OFF 17.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Schwarber L

19.8% 16.9% 28.0% 20.0% C+ 68 +1000

Bryce Harper L

9.6% 18.1% 9.6% 12.4% C+ 62 +320

Brandon Marsh L

8.3% 16.4% 2.8% 9.8% C 55 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

101

Alec Bohm R Edge

5.1% 4.8% 3.4% 4.9% D 44 +425

110

Trea Turner R Edge

8.4% 3.4% 0.0% 6.1% D 43 +400

111

Bryson Stott L

7.9% 5.6% 6.5% 7.0% D 43 +525

163

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

5.3% 4.8% 9.1% 5.4% D 36 +475

204

Justin Crawford L

1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.3% usage) carries Abbott's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for PHI Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Bohm Turner Stewart Steer

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Brandon Marsh +500 · 55

Sal Stewart +350 · 60

Bryce Harper +320 · 62

Spencer Steer — · 54

Stadium conditions

Great American Ball Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 1 mph in 71°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

7:10p · peak

↑

5 mph · cross

79°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · cross

78°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

77°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

75°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 71°F, wind 1 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.47 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 68 C+ +1000 WARM 3 0.315 93.6 12.0% 42.3%vs LHP 404 25.3% 8.3% 19.6% 22

2 Bryce Harper 62 C+ +320 · 12 0.248 90.3 9.5% 11.1%vs LHP 400 20.9% 23.1% 23.7% 32

3 Brandon Marsh 55 C +500 WARM 32 0.197 89.7 8.4% 17.6%vs LHP 392 14.5% 30.8% 20.8% 37

4 Alec Bohm 44 D +425 HOT 101 0.146 90.1 6.0% 14.3%vs LHP 394 12.0% 16.7% 11.8% 34

5 Trea Turner 43 D +400 · 110 0.121 88.9 6.6% 3.6%vs LHP 393 11.8% 23.1% 11.0% 41

6 Bryson Stott 43 D +525 · 111 0.148 89.1 7.2% 11.1%vs LHP 393 8.6% 7.7% 8.5% 36

7 J.T. Realmuto 36 D +475 WARM 163 0.126 — 6.3% 0.0%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% 25

8 Justin Crawford 31 D — COOL 204 0.091 86.6 2.7% 4.9% 382 3.2% 0.0% 6.8% 36

vs PHI Bullpen Proxy 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 60 C+ +350 · 27 0.210 91.1 14.5% 19.1% 393 12.2% 25.0% 24.2% 36

2 Elly De La Cruz 57 C +350 · 46 0.213 94.4 14.3% 22.6% 395 14.7% 8.3% 15.2% 33

3 Spencer Steer 54 C — · 65 0.191 89.6 12.4% 16.9% 394 13.6% 25.0% 20.5% 25

4 Nathaniel Lowe 49 D +500 COOL 93 0.205 88.5 10.5% 22.0% 398 14.0% 0.0% 14.5% 10

5 Jj Bleday 47 D +330 COOL 108 0.236 89.0 9.0% 19.1% 385 0.0% 0.0% 16.1% 30

6 Tyler Stephenson 43 D +500 WARM 136 0.141 91.1 10.7% 11.1% 384 7.2% 0.0% 8.6% 20

7 Matt Mclain 40 D — COOL 161 0.146 88.9 9.1% 10.5% 398 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 12

8 Eugenio Suarez 38 D +390 · 179 0.150 87.2 8.0% 14.8% 384 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 24

9 Tj Friedl 31 D +750 WARM 215 0.105 88.1 3.1% 6.7% 374 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

14 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.