Today · 2026-07-06

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#5 James Wood vs Mike Burrows FIP 5.36 HR/FB 27.1% #10 Jake Mccarthy vs Eric Lauer FIP 6.19 HR/FB 33.3%

📦 STACK Eric Lauer FIP 6.19 HR/FB 16.7% → #1 Hunter Goodman, #10 Jake Mccarthy

📦 STACK Griffin Jax FIP 4.65 HR/FB 31.8% → #2 Ben Rice, #14 Paul Goldschmidt

📦 STACK Noah Cameron FIP 3.88 HR/FB 18.8% → #3 Kyle Schwarber, #11 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Kyle Freeland FIP 4.9 HR/FB 6.7% → #4 Shohei Ohtani, #8 Max Muncy, #9 Freddie Freeman, #13 Teoscar Hernandez, #15 Mookie Betts

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-05. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.1% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Hunter Goodman (R) ⁴	81	-11.8	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟢 A	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%14.0% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffMax Meyer Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle45.0° Distance403 ft StadiumCoors Field	○●○○○	1.0×	1	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.07 FIP3.77 IP778.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+33 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
2	Ben Rice (L) ²	70	-5.9	●	Griffin Jax (RHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%12.3% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-03 OffMike Paredes Exit Velo101.7 mph Angle26.0° Distance357 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	●○●○○	1.0×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.17 FIP4.10 IP758.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 25 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
3	Kyle Schwarber (L) ⁴	69	-11.4	●	Noah Cameron (LHP) PHI @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	30	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%12.9% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-06-28 OffKodai Senga Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle37.0° Distance408 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○○○○	2.0×	1	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.5% HR/91.33 FIP4.72 IP782.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-40 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.3°F Wind4.7 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-40 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note69°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0
4	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁵	68	-14.0	●	Kyle Freeland (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%13.1% Avg EV93.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffMatt Krook Exit Velo112.3 mph Angle25.0° Distance432 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	1.5×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.38 FIP4.82 IP803.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+27 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+27 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
5	James Wood (L) ⁴	68	-12.6	●	Mike Burrows (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.6% Avg EV95.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo113.1 mph Angle31.0° Distance428 ft StadiumNationals Park	○●○●○	0.3×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.91 IP814.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+13 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.9°F Wind3 mph NE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph NE (out) — modifier: +0
6	Junior Caminero (R) ²	67	-8.7	●	Cam Schlittler (RHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	26	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffHunter Brown Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle26.0° Distance437 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	●○●●○	0.5×	1	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/90.99 FIP3.75 IP805.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 26 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
7	Max Muncy (S) ⁵	67	-7.8	●	Kyle Freeland (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls53 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle30.0° Distance422 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	2.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.38 FIP4.82 IP803.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+27 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+27 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 23 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
8	Freddie Freeman (L) ³	64	-6.2	●	Kyle Freeland (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	15	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffKyle Hart Exit Velo100.6 mph Angle36.0° Distance388 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	●○○●○	0.2×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.38 FIP4.82 IP803.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
9	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁵	62	-17.4	●	Miles Mikolas (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.1% Avg EV94.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-04 OffCasey Legumina Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle23.0° Distance424 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	●○●●○	0.5×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.40 FIP4.68 IP850.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+13 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.9°F Wind3 mph NE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph NE (out) — modifier: +0
10	Bryce Harper (L) ⁵	62	-5.0	●	Noah Cameron (LHP) PHI @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	20	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo106.7 mph Angle26.0° Distance405 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○○	1.2×	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.5% HR/91.33 FIP4.72 IP782.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-43 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.3°F Wind4.7 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-43 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note69°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0
11	Jake Mccarthy (L) ²	60	+4.3	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	9	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls45 BBE Barrel%8.4% Avg EV85.4 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	35d Last HR · 2026-06-01 OffJosé Soriano Exit Velo104.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance397 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○○○○	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.07 FIP3.77 IP778.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+24 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
12	Matt Olson (L) ³	60	-9.9	●	Freddy Peralta (RHP) NYM @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%8.2% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-03 OffKodai Senga Exit Velo105.9 mph Angle28.0° Distance411 ft StadiumTruist Park	○○●○○	0.5×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.09 FIP4.05 IP779.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+40 Weather · Truist Park mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.2°F Wind2.6 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+40 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note71°F, wind 3 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +0
13	Paul Goldschmidt (R) ³	59	·	●	Griffin Jax (RHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV86.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-06-24 OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle30.0° Distance427 ft StadiumComerica Park	○○○○○	2.0×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.17 FIP4.10 IP758.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
14	Mookie Betts (R) ⁴	59	-7.7	●	Kyle Freeland (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	11	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls43 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffRon Marinaccio Exit Velo100.9 mph Angle25.0° Distance402 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○○○○	2.0×	1	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.38 FIP4.82 IP803.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+33 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+33 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
15	Andy Pages (R) ⁵	59	-11.8	●	Kyle Freeland (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV89.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7d Last HR · 2026-06-29 OffGage Jump Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle30.0° Distance387 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○○○○○	1.0×	1	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.38 FIP4.82 IP803.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+34 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+34 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
16	Juan Soto (L) ²	58	-11.4	●	Reynaldo López (RHP) NYM @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV92.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-03 OffGrant Holmes Exit Velo100.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance359 ft StadiumTruist Park	○○●○○	0.7×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.10 FIP4.04 IP788.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+37 Weather · Truist Park mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.2°F Wind2.6 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+37 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note71°F, wind 3 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +0
17	Kyle Karros (R)	58	-2.4	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	7	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV89.6 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffDylan Smith Exit Velo105.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance457 ft StadiumCoors Field	●○○○●	0.0×	1	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.07 FIP3.77 IP778.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 6 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
18	Curtis Mead (R) ⁴	57	-5.0	●	Mike Burrows (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	14	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV87.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-06-25 OffCristopher Sánchez Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle23.0° Distance409 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	1.8×	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.40 FIP4.91 IP814.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+14 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.9°F Wind3 mph NE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+14 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 14 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph NE (out) — modifier: +0
19	Manny Machado (R) ²	57	-6.0	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV90.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffKyle Hurt Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance407 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○●○○●	0.0×	1	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.33 FIP4.61 IP786.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-45 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.7°F Wind4 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-45 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note66°F, wind 4 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
20	Brandon Marsh (L) ³	56	-1.1	●	Noah Cameron (LHP) PHI @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	2:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	15	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-01 OffPaul Skenes Exit Velo99.2 mph Angle27.0° Distance351 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○●○○○	0.8×	·	KC Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.5% HR/91.33 FIP4.72 IP782.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-41 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.3°F Wind4.7 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-41 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note69°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0
21	Christian Walker (R) ⁴	56	-10.9	●	Miles Mikolas (RHP) HOU @ WSH · Nationals Park	6:45p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	20	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%9.4% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffMason Englert Exit Velo99.1 mph Angle28.0° Distance351 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.2% HR/91.40 FIP4.68 IP850.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+13 Weather · Nationals Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.9°F Wind3 mph NE Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note75°F, wind 3 mph NE (out) — modifier: +0
22	Teoscar Hernandez (R) ³	55	-12.8	●	Kyle Freeland (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	8	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls12 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	82d Last HR · 2026-04-15 OffClay Holmes Exit Velo104.2 mph Angle26.0° Distance370 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○●○○●	0.0×	1	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.38 FIP4.82 IP803.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
23	Tj Rumfield (L) ⁵	55	-2.5	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	12	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV84.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	34d Last HR · 2026-06-02 OffGrayson Rodriguez Exit Velo97.1 mph Angle28.0° Distance364 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○○○○	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.07 FIP3.77 IP778.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
24	Gavin Sheets (L) ³	54	-5.8	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	14	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV89.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-06-27 OffYoshinobu Yamamoto Exit Velo104.3 mph Angle26.0° Distance414 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○○○○	1.0×	1	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.33 FIP4.61 IP786.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-35 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.7°F Wind4 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-35 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note66°F, wind 4 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
25	Jac Caglianone (L) ²	54	+0.7	●	Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) PHI @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	2:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	14	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls26 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV94.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	13d Last HR · 2026-06-23 OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle22.0° Distance416 ft StadiumTropicana Field	○○○○○	1.8×	·	PHI Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.7% HR/91.17 FIP3.74 IP793.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-40 Weather · Kauffman Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.3°F Wind4.7 mph NE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-40 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note69°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0
26	Ketel Marte (S) ³	54	-10.0	●	Walker Buehler (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls41 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-06-30 OffAdrian Houser Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle36.0° Distance431 ft StadiumChase Field	●○○○○	1.3×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.18 FIP4.34 IP792.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-39 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.7°F Wind4 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-39 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note66°F, wind 4 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
27	Trent Grisham (L) ⁴	53	-7.4	●	Griffin Jax (RHP) NYY @ TB · Tropicana Field	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	9	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls4 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV90.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-03 OffMike Paredes Exit Velo102.8 mph Angle42.0° Distance370 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○○●○○	0.3×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.17 FIP4.10 IP758.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Tropicana Field neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
28	Ezequiel Tovar (R)	53	-4.4	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) COL @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	7	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%9.0% Avg EV87.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-03 OffLogan Webb Exit Velo101.7 mph Angle28.0° Distance392 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○●○○	0.2×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.07 FIP3.77 IP778.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+32 Weather · Dodger Stadium cool air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp63.5°F Wind3.0 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+32 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 9 HR Note63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
29	Ty France (R) ⁴	52	-2.1	●	Brandon Pfaadt (RHP) AZ @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	10	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-06-26 OffRoki Sasaki Exit Velo98.1 mph Angle30.0° Distance372 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○○○○	1.6×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.33 FIP4.61 IP786.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-41 Weather · Petco Park mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.7°F Wind4 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-41 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 10 HR Note66°F, wind 4 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0
30	Jake Bauers (L) ⁴	52	-7.3	●	Dustin May (RHP) MIL @ STL · Busch Stadium	7:45p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-07-05 OffEduardo Rodriguez Exit Velo102.2 mph Angle25.0° Distance400 ft StadiumChase Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.06 FIP4.25 IP772.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Busch Stadium mild air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp70.7°F Wind2.0 mph WNW Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note71°F, wind 2 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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116 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Today's Locks

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Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.0%

▲ +4.8 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 14.6% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-05

31 HRs

25%

8 caught / 31 HRs

in top 50

#14 Manny Machado

33.6%

🔵

#15 Rafael Devers

30.7%

🔵

#19 Willson Contreras

31.2%

🔵

#29 Jordan Walker

17.9%

🔵

#32 Colson Montgomery

23.7%

🟠

#35 Christian Walker

17.8%

🟠

#42 Casey Schmitt

12.8%

🟠

#47 Jonah Heim

19.2%

🟠

Missed

Jake Bauers Kyle Karros Spencer Steer Brandon Lowe Zach Neto +18 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Junior Caminero ×4 Kody Clemens ×3 Yordan Alvarez ×3 Willson Contreras ×3 Manny Machado ×3

❄️ Cold

Ty France 0 of 7d Dillon Dingler 0 of 6d Kyle Schwarber 0 of 6d Pete Alonso 0 of 6d Ian Happ 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 20.0%

B 19.6%

C+ 16.3%

C 13.5%

D 8.6%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-06

You saw the full board yesterday

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.