TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ ATL

Neutral air · 1.01×

NYM @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph slight_out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:15p

+6 ↑

8:15p

+5 ↑

9:15p

+3 ↑

10:15p

+2 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +6

Best of game Matt Olson conv 17 · vs Peralta ⟷ Mark Vientos conv 23 · vs López → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 94

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +305 C+ ●●●○○

2 Ozzie Albies +500 D ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +370 C ●●○○○

FADE Reynaldo López RHP · ATL

leak 26

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mark Vientos — C ●●●●○

2 Bo Bichette +500 D ●●○○○

3 Juan Soto +290 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 26.6% · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Mark Vientos vs López — 0.186 · 89.5 · 8.3% 25.0% 21.7% F B O C 51

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Peralta Edge +305 0.271 · 92.9 · 8.2% 8.3% 26.6% F B O C+ 60

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs López Edge +290 0.258 · 92.8 · 9.9% 7.7% 16.9% F B O C 58

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Peralta Edge +370 0.191 · 91.1 · 8.8% 8.3% 15.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Bo Bichette vs López +500 0.127 · 90.5 · 6.8% 21.4% 10.1% F B O D 42

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Peralta Edge +500 0.172 · 87.2 · 4.6% 16.7% 12.3% F B O D 43

· NYM Luis Torrens vs López +850 0.100 · 88.2 · 5.4% 11.1% 13.0% F B O D 38

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs López +390 0.176 · 90.6 · 10.6% 0.0% 21.8% F B O D 47

· ATL Austin Riley vs Peralta +425 0.151 · 90.8 · 7.1% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 42

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs López Edge +525 0.135 · 89.5 · 7.4% 7.1% 7.5% F B O D 41

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Peralta Edge +525 0.146 · 90.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 39

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Peralta Edge +575 0.132 · 87.9 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs López Edge +750 0.130 · — · 6.7% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 35

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Peralta +850 0.152 · 86.4 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 35

· NYM Brett Baty vs López Edge +575 0.084 · 88.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 54.3% ← leak BRK 42.1% OFF 3.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Juan Soto L Edge

18.4% 12.5% 5.6% 14.5% C 58 +290

Mark Vientos R

9.5% 12.8% 8.6% 10.2% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

17.9% 15.1% 17.6% 16.8% D 47 +390

Bo Bichette R

4.6% 12.9% 0.0% 6.8% D 42 +500

Carson Benge L Edge

7.9% 8.2% 7.9% 8.0% D 41 +525

Luis Torrens R

4.8% 5.6% 0.0% 4.3% D 38 +850

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.1% 5.9% 0.0% 5.9% D 35 +750

Brett Baty L Edge

7.3% 11.9% 3.1% 7.7% D 35 +575

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.3% usage) carries López's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.1% BRK 22.8% OFF 22.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Matt Olson L Edge

17.4% 10.5% 10.3% 14.6% C+ 60 +305

Drake Baldwin L Edge

16.8% 23.3% 0.0% 15.6% C 51 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.6% 1.2% 3.5% 4.3% D 43 +500

Austin Riley R

12.1% 11.6% 3.7% 10.9% D 42 +425

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

4.5% 5.1% 10.7% 5.8% D 39 +525

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.9% 6.7% 3.6% 6.3% D 38 +575

Mauricio Dubon R

4.2% 6.3% 4.7% 4.9% D 35 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Peralta's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Vientos Bichette Olson Albies

Legend

attack side — vs Peralta fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Mark Vientos — · 51

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.01× Wind 3 mph slight_out 71°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:15p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:15p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

9:15p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

74°F

10:15p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

74°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.01× 71°F, wind 3 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Reynaldo López · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 58 C +290 COOL 16 0.258 92.8 9.9% 31.1%vs RHP 397 18.9% 7.7% 16.9% 27

2 Mark Vientos 51 C — WARM 34 0.186 89.5 8.3% 18.2%vs RHP 409 13.8% 25.0% 21.7% 14

3 Francisco Alvarez 47 D +390 WARM 46 0.176 90.6 10.6% 23.3%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 26

4 Bo Bichette 42 D +500 · 62 0.127 90.5 6.8% 11.3%vs RHP 385 10.2% 21.4% 10.1% 33

5 Carson Benge 41 D +525 COOL 69 0.135 89.5 7.4% 13.0%vs RHP 399 9.3% 7.1% 7.5% 41

6 Luis Torrens 38 D +850 WARM 80 0.100 88.2 5.4% 7.1%vs RHP 394 6.2% 11.1% 13.0% 11

7 A.J. Ewing 35 D +750 WARM 93 0.130 — 6.7% 13.6%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 33

8 Brett Baty 35 D +575 · 96 0.084 88.8 7.2% 7.9%vs RHP 415 3.6% 0.0% 6.8% 27

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 60 C+ +305 · 12 0.271 92.9 8.2% 30.0%vs RHP 410 20.5% 8.3% 26.6% 31

2 Drake Baldwin 51 C +370 COOL 35 0.191 91.1 8.8% 26.9%vs RHP 407 19.4% 8.3% 15.4% 28

3 Ozzie Albies 43 D +500 · 58 0.172 87.2 4.6% 13.8%vs RHP 383 13.6% 16.7% 12.3% 39

4 Austin Riley 42 D +425 · 66 0.151 90.8 7.1% 13.2%vs RHP 404 8.0% 8.3% 7.6% 26

5 Mike Yastrzemski 39 D +525 WARM 77 0.146 90.5 5.1% 14.6%vs RHP 383 7.1% 0.0% 10.8% 19

6 Dominic Smith 38 D +575 COOL 83 0.132 87.9 5.6% 13.6%vs RHP 390 7.4% 0.0% 9.1% 24

7 Mauricio Dubon 35 D +850 COOL 94 0.152 86.4 5.0% 13.5%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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