TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.89×

AZ @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph in 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

-11 ↑

6:40p

-12 ↑

7:40p

-11 ↑

8:40p

-10 ↑

9:40p

-9 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -9

Best of game Ketel Marte conv 29 · vs Buehler ⟷ Manny Machado conv 30 · vs Pfaadt → edge: Manny Machado

ATTACK Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 49

1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ketel Marte +330 C ●●●●○

2 Adrian Del Castillo — D ●●○○○

3 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 18

1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado +400 C ●●●●●

2 Gavin Sheets +425 C ●●●○○

3 Ty France +575 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Manny Machado: 10.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Manny Machado ✶ vs Pfaadt +400 0.208 · 90.0 · 11.1% 38.5% 20.8% F B O C 57

· AZ Ketel Marte vs Buehler Edge +330 0.214 · 91.3 · 9.9% 38.5% 19.4% F B O C 54

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Pfaadt Edge +425 0.229 · 89.3 · 10.0% 10.0% 33.6% F B O C 54

· SD Ty France vs Pfaadt +575 0.211 · 91.2 · 11.3% 16.7% 19.6% F B O C 52

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Buehler Edge +390 0.235 · 91.7 · 10.2% 0.0% 13.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill COOL vs Pfaadt Edge +475 0.143 · 89.8 · 10.9% 15.4% 14.1% F B O D 46

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo vs Buehler Edge — 0.126 · 89.2 · 7.7% 11.1% 10.0% F B O D 38

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Buehler +575 0.159 · 85.3 · 7.5% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 39

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Buehler Edge +850 0.109 · 87.0 · 5.2% 7.7% 6.4% F B O D 31

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Buehler +625 0.174 · 89.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 41

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Buehler Edge — 0.156 · 86.9 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 38

· SD Miguel Andujar vs Pfaadt — 0.148 · 88.2 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

· SD Xander Bogaerts COOL vs Pfaadt +750 0.108 · 88.1 · 8.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.2% BRK 30.1% OFF 9.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ketel Marte S Edge

15.0% 8.1% 4.8% 11.1% C 54 +330

Corbin Carroll L Edge

11.9% 14.7% 6.7% 11.8% C 50 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gabriel Moreno R

8.0% 10.0% 12.5% 9.2% D 41 +625

Nolan Arenado R

9.8% 1.4% 0.0% 6.1% D 39 +575

Adrian Del Castillo L Edge

9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% D 38 —

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

5.2% 1.8% 2.0% 3.8% D 38 —

104

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.5% 0.0% 1.6% 3.1% D 31 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.4% ← leak BRK 33.5% OFF 10.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Manny Machado R

12.9% 7.2% 5.9% 10.3% C 57 +400

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.9% 5.1% 5.7% 8.8% C 54 +425

Ty France R

11.3% 10.2% 8.7% 10.5% C 52 +575

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

10.7% 9.2% 8.7% 9.9% D 46 +475

Xander Bogaerts R

7.5% 3.6% 4.8% 6.4% D 37 +750

Miguel Andujar R

3.8% 5.3% 4.2% 4.3% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.4% usage) carries Pfaadt's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Machado Sheets France Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Buehler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Manny Machado +400 · 57

Ketel Marte +330 · 54

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 4 mph in 66°F open

-11

↑

9 mph · in

75°F

6:40p

-12

↑

9 mph · in

71°F

7:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

70°F

8:40p

-10

↑

7 mph · in

69°F

9:40p

-9

↑

6 mph · in

68°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.89× 66°F, wind 4 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.39 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.77 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ketel Marte 54 C +330 · 26 0.214 91.3 9.9% 16.1%vs RHP 413 16.9% 38.5% 19.4% 41

2 Corbin Carroll 50 C +390 COOL 38 0.235 91.7 10.2% 23.8%vs RHP 406 14.5% 0.0% 13.9% 27

3 Gabriel Moreno 41 D +625 COOL 68 0.174 89.8 8.5% 16.7%vs RHP 395 9.1% 0.0% 11.7% 30

4 Nolan Arenado 39 D +575 WARM 78 0.159 85.3 7.5% 16.7%vs RHP 400 9.9% 8.3% 10.7% 32

5 Adrian Del Castillo 38 D — · 81 0.126 89.2 7.7% 14.8%vs RHP 400 8.9% 11.1% 10.0% 14

6 Ildemaro Vargas 38 D — WARM 84 0.156 86.9 5.8% 10.7%vs RHP 399 6.2% 0.0% 7.8% 16

7 Geraldo Perdomo 31 D +850 WARM 104 0.109 87.0 5.2% 9.1%vs RHP 388 5.4% 7.7% 6.4% 37

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 1.66 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado ✶ 57 C +400 WARM 19 0.208 90.0 11.1% 29.5%vs RHP 396 20.5% 38.5% 20.8% 30

2 Gavin Sheets 54 C +425 · 24 0.229 89.3 10.0% 35.7%vs RHP 397 13.2% 10.0% 33.6% 25

3 Ty France 52 C +575 · 29 0.211 91.2 11.3% 34.8%vs RHP 393 15.2% 16.7% 19.6% 27

4 Jackson Merrill 46 D +475 COOL 48 0.143 89.8 10.9% 15.7%vs RHP 406 12.2% 15.4% 14.1% 30

5 Xander Bogaerts 37 D +750 COOL 86 0.108 88.1 8.4% 17.9%vs RHP 395 8.6% 0.0% 6.8% 31

6 Miguel Andujar 36 D — · 89 0.148 88.2 7.3% 16.7%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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