TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.83×

MIL @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 2 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+0 ↑

6:45p

+0 ↑

7:45p

-1 ↑

8:45p

-1 ↑

9:45p

-1 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +0

Best of game Nathan Church conv 20 · vs Drohan ⟷ Jake Bauers conv 24 · vs May → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Shane Drohan LHP · MIL

leak 82

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nathan Church — D ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +400 C ●●●○○

3 Alec Burleson +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 76

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jake Bauers +400 C ●●●●○

2 Garrett Mitchell +750 D ●●●●○

3 Jackson Chourio +475 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ vs May Edge +400 0.257 · 92.6 · 9.5% 23.1% 25.7% F B O C 52

· MIL Jackson Chourio vs May +475 0.240 · 92.3 · 10.1% 23.1% 19.6% F B O C 50

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Drohan Edge +400 0.234 · 93.9 · 11.0% 16.7% 16.0% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· MIL Garrett Mitchell HOT vs May Edge +750 0.194 · 93.2 · 10.4% 27.3% 20.4% F B O D 46

· STL Nathan Church vs Drohan — 0.165 · 86.3 · 8.8% 27.3% 12.1% F B O D 39

· MIL William Contreras vs May +625 0.144 · 90.5 · 7.1% 18.2% 8.1% F B O D 35

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs May Edge +850 0.193 · 90.9 · 7.6% 7.7% 11.6% F B O D 39

· STL Alec Burleson vs Drohan +750 0.193 · 91.6 · 9.6% 10.0% 6.2% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich HOT vs May Edge +700 0.136 · 88.9 · 7.3% 8.3% 6.7% F B O D 33

· STL Masyn Winn vs Drohan Edge +950 0.092 · 87.4 · 5.5% 8.3% 5.3% F B O D 25

· STL Ivan Herrera COOL vs Drohan Edge +625 0.154 · 89.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 31

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs May Edge — 0.102 · 86.7 · 5.2% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 26

· MIL Sal Frelick vs May Edge — 0.092 · 85.8 · 3.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 22

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs May — 0.057 · 87.8 · 4.8% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 22

· STL Pedro Pages COOL vs Drohan Edge +950 0.125 · 86.7 · 6.9% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 28

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Drohan +750 0.146 · 90.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 5.0% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.1% ← leak BRK 26.7% OFF 7.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.2% 12.5% 14.3% 13.8% C 52 +400

Jackson Chourio R

14.7% 17.2% 4.8% 14.4% C 50 +475

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.9% 14.3% 5.9% 14.8% D 46 +750

Brice Turang L Edge

9.5% 10.1% 2.6% 8.6% D 39 +850

William Contreras R

9.8% 7.4% 0.0% 8.3% D 35 +625

Christian Yelich L Edge

5.3% 9.8% 14.3% 7.3% D 33 +700

112

David Hamilton L Edge

4.6% 5.6% 0.0% 4.3% D 26 —

119

Sal Frelick L Edge

1.2% 5.7% 0.0% 2.1% D 22 —

120

Joey Ortiz R

2.1% 6.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.1% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.5% ← leak BRK 34.4% OFF 4.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Jordan Walker R Edge

14.1% 12.7% 19.2% 14.2% C 50 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L

10.9% 12.8% 8.1% 10.9% D 42 +750

Nathan Church L

10.7% 7.1% 7.7% 8.8% D 39 —

Jj Wetherholt L

11.2% 4.2% 2.6% 8.1% D 32 +750

101

Ivan Herrera R Edge

6.3% 7.3% 9.1% 7.0% D 31 +625

109

Pedro Pages R Edge

8.8% 2.6% 0.0% 5.5% D 28 +950

113

Masyn Winn R Edge

4.0% 2.4% 3.6% 3.4% D 25 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.5% usage) carries Drohan's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Mitchell Contreras Walker Church

Legend

attack side — vs Drohan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Jake Bauers +400 · 52

Jackson Chourio +475 · 50

Garrett Mitchell +750 · 46

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 2 mph in 71°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

75°F

6:45p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

74°F

7:45p

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:45p

-1

↑

7 mph · slight_out

73°F

9:45p

-1

↑

6 mph · slight_out

72°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.83× 71°F, wind 2 mph WNW (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 52 C +400 · 30 0.257 92.6 9.5% 36.4%vs RHP 403 20.3% 23.1% 25.7% 25

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C +475 · 37 0.240 92.3 10.1% 19.1%vs RHP 399 20.4% 23.1% 19.6% 34

3 Garrett Mitchell 46 D +750 HOT 47 0.194 93.2 10.4% 32.0%vs RHP 415 10.6% 27.3% 20.4% 25

4 Brice Turang 39 D +850 COOL 76 0.193 90.9 7.6% 28.6%vs RHP 407 10.6% 7.7% 11.6% 41

5 William Contreras 35 D +625 · 95 0.144 90.5 7.1% 19.2%vs RHP 419 11.2% 18.2% 8.1% 35

6 Christian Yelich 33 D +700 HOT 97 0.136 88.9 7.3% 12.0%vs RHP 402 7.7% 8.3% 6.7% 21

7 David Hamilton 26 D — COOL 112 0.102 86.7 5.2% 7.0%vs RHP 383 4.6% 0.0% 6.0% 14

8 Sal Frelick 22 D — WARM 119 0.092 85.8 3.9% 5.6%vs RHP 402 2.8% 0.0% 5.8% 30

9 Joey Ortiz 22 D — WARM 120 0.057 87.8 4.8% 8.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 21

vs Shane Drohan · LHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.36 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C +400 COOL 39 0.234 93.9 11.0% 40.0%vs LHP 407 18.7% 16.7% 16.0% 22

2 Alec Burleson 42 D +750 · 67 0.193 91.6 9.6% 4.0%vs LHP 404 16.9% 10.0% 6.2% 31

3 Nathan Church 39 D — WARM 75 0.165 86.3 8.8% 25.0%vs LHP 388 10.7% 27.3% 12.1% 27

4 Jj Wetherholt 32 D +750 COOL 99 0.146 90.1 7.8% 6.9%vs LHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 38

5 Ivan Herrera 31 D +625 COOL 101 0.154 89.7 7.4% 31.2%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 30

6 Pedro Pages 28 D +950 COOL 109 0.125 86.7 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 8

7 Masyn Winn 25 D +950 · 113 0.092 87.4 5.5% 0.0%vs LHP 390 4.9% 8.3% 5.3% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

13 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.