TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ WSH

Neutral air · 0.99×

HOU @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 3 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

6:45p

+5 ↑

7:45p

+4 ↑

8:45p

+4 ↑

9:45p

+3 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +5

Best of game James Wood conv 29 · vs Burrows ⟷ Cam Smith conv 24 · vs Mikolas → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Mike Burrows RHP · HOU

leak 96

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · leakiest side of this game

1 James Wood +235 C+ ●●●●●

2 Curtis Mead +425 C ●●●●○

3 Jorbit Vivas — D ●●○○○

FADE Miles Mikolas RHP · WSH

leak 87

1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith +475 C ●●●●○

2 Christian Walker +305 C ●●●○○

3 Yainer Diaz +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: 22.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· WSH James Wood ✶ COOL vs Burrows Edge +235 0.258 · 95.4 · 13.6% 23.1% 35.5% F B O C+ 68

· WSH Curtis Mead COOL vs Burrows +425 0.234 · 87.9 · 9.4% 27.3% 27.9% F B O C 57

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Mikolas +475 0.158 · 89.4 · 10.5% 27.3% 19.9% F B O C 50

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Mikolas +305 0.232 · 89.8 · 9.4% 16.7% 19.0% F B O C 56

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Mikolas Edge +205 0.316 · 94.8 · 13.1% 0.0% 30.3% F B O C+ 62

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Burrows Edge +350 0.225 · 90.0 · 8.9% 0.0% 18.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Mikolas +525 0.132 · 87.8 · 6.5% 20.0% 11.9% F B O D 40

· WSH Jorbit Vivas vs Burrows Edge — 0.102 · 83.3 · 5.8% 14.3% 14.9% F B O D 36

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Mikolas +390 0.159 · 86.9 · 7.3% 15.4% 11.6% F B O D 43

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Burrows Edge +500 0.167 · 87.6 · 7.7% 9.1% 14.1% F B O D 43

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Burrows Edge +525 0.178 · 89.4 · 6.7% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 42

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Mikolas +475 0.149 · 85.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 37

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Burrows — 0.147 · 88.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 40

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Mikolas — 0.108 · 86.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 30

· HOU Brice Matthews COOL vs Mikolas — 0.126 · 87.5 · 8.7% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 40

· WSH Nasim Nunez vs Burrows Edge — 0.050 · 85.1 · 2.0% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.6% ← leak BRK 41.2% OFF 8.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

18.0% 25.0% 11.8% 18.8% C+ 62 +205

Christian Walker R

8.2% 11.4% 16.0% 10.0% C 56 +305

Cam Smith R

10.2% 16.7% 20.8% 12.8% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

7.6% 5.0% 0.0% 6.0% D 43 +390

Yainer Diaz R

8.5% 2.2% 0.0% 4.8% D 40 +525

Brice Matthews R

13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% D 40 —

Jose Altuve R

7.0% 6.2% 0.0% 6.1% D 37 +475

106

Christian Vazquez R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.6% usage) carries Mikolas's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.8% ← leak BRK 31.3% OFF 26.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

James Wood L Edge

21.5% 26.2% 16.0% 22.2% C+ 68 +235

Curtis Mead R

12.5% 11.3% 3.7% 10.9% C 57 +425

Cj Abrams L Edge

11.4% 7.0% 10.3% 9.7% C 51 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.5% 10.0% 4.5% 7.6% D 43 +500

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.8% 0.0% 3.3% 5.4% D 42 +525

Jacob Young R

7.3% 4.9% 4.0% 6.2% D 40 —

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.6% 5.4% 4.0% 4.1% D 36 —

117

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.8% usage) carries Burrows's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Smith Paredes Diaz Wood Mead Vivas

Legend

attack side — vs Burrows fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

James Wood +235 · 68

Curtis Mead +425 · 57

Cam Smith +475 · 50

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 3 mph out 75°F open

↑

3 mph · out

91°F

6:45p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

92°F

7:45p

↑

3 mph · out

88°F

8:45p

↑

3 mph · out

84°F

9:45p

↑

3 mph · out

80°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 75°F, wind 3 mph NE (out) — modifier: +0 — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Miles Mikolas · RHP 1.93 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 62 C+ +205 · 9 0.316 94.8 13.1% 26.0%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 30.3% 30

2 Christian Walker 56 C +305 COOL 21 0.232 89.8 9.4% 28.6%vs RHP 390 20.7% 16.7% 19.0% 27

3 Cam Smith 50 C +475 COOL 36 0.158 89.4 10.5% 20.0%vs RHP 415 12.0% 27.3% 19.9% 35

4 Isaac Paredes 43 D +390 COOL 60 0.159 86.9 7.3% 18.3%vs RHP 370 11.6% 15.4% 11.6% 42

5 Yainer Diaz 40 D +525 WARM 70 0.132 87.8 6.5% 14.3%vs RHP 386 7.1% 20.0% 11.9% 31

6 Brice Matthews 40 D — COOL 72 0.126 87.5 8.7% 10.5%vs RHP 410 9.8% 0.0% 8.6% 12

7 Jose Altuve 37 D +475 COOL 85 0.149 85.5 7.4% 21.9%vs RHP 376 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 35

8 Christian Vazquez 30 D — COOL 106 0.108 86.0 3.6% 11.1%vs RHP 373 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 9

vs Mike Burrows · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 68 C+ +235 COOL 5 0.258 95.4 13.6% 32.6%vs RHP 410 26.4% 23.1% 35.5% 30

2 Curtis Mead 57 C +425 COOL 18 0.234 87.9 9.4% 26.7%vs RHP 400 20.4% 27.3% 27.9% 31

3 Cj Abrams 51 C +350 COOL 32 0.225 90.0 8.9% 28.3%vs RHP 390 33.3% 0.0% 18.6% 22

4 Daylen Lile 43 D +500 · 57 0.167 87.6 7.7% 13.1%vs RHP 402 8.7% 9.1% 14.1% 33

5 Keibert Ruiz 42 D +525 WARM 63 0.178 89.4 6.7% 9.8%vs RHP 378 11.8% 0.0% 11.6% 22

6 Jacob Young 40 D — COOL 71 0.147 88.9 7.1% 18.9%vs RHP 391 8.3% 0.0% 9.5% 18

7 Jorbit Vivas 36 D — WARM 90 0.102 83.3 5.8% 11.5%vs RHP 392 4.3% 14.3% 14.9% 24

8 Nasim Nunez 23 D — WARM 117 0.050 85.1 2.0% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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