TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.21×

COL @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 3 mph slight_out 64°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

7:10p

+13 ↑

8:10p

+11 ↑

9:10p

+10 ↑

10:10p

+8 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +14

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 37 · vs Lauer ⟷ Freddie Freeman conv 23 · vs Freeland → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Eric Lauer LHP · LAD

leak 81

2.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman +198 A ●●●●●

2 Kyle Karros +500 C ●●●○○

3 Jake Mccarthy +850 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Kyle Freeland LHP · COL

leak 8

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · stingy — thin edge

1 Freddie Freeman +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 Mookie Betts +350 C ●●●○○

3 Max Muncy +305 C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 17.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Lauer Edge +198 0.303 · 91.5 · 14.0% 33.3% 40.5% F B O A 81

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Freeland +350 0.207 · 90.8 · 11.2% 23.1% 22.7% F B O C+ 64

· COL Kyle Karros vs Lauer Edge +500 0.157 · 89.6 · 9.5% 27.3% 17.8% F B O C 58

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Freeland Edge +350 0.192 · 90.7 · 9.5% 23.1% 19.9% F B O C 59

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Freeland Edge +305 0.239 · 90.0 · 12.2% 13.3% 23.2% F B O C+ 67

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Freeland +220 0.236 · 93.6 · 13.1% 15.4% 20.5% F B O C+ 68

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Lauer +850 0.204 · 85.4 · 8.4% 0.0% 33.8% F B O C+ 60

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Lauer Edge +475 0.141 · 87.4 · 9.0% 18.2% 10.1% F B O C 53

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Freeland Edge +280 0.182 · 90.3 · 10.8% 0.0% 27.4% F B O C 55

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Freeland Edge +280 0.199 · 89.1 · 9.7% 7.7% 16.5% F B O C 59

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Lauer +525 0.193 · 84.2 · 8.1% 0.0% 15.4% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Lauer Edge +425 0.111 · 88.5 · 8.5% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 49

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Freeland +390 0.134 · 89.0 · 7.8% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 48

· COL Troy Johnston vs Lauer — 0.143 · 89.5 · 5.1% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 46

· COL Edouard Julien COOL vs Lauer — 0.100 · 91.2 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 48

· COL Tyler Freeman COOL vs Lauer Edge +625 0.086 · 87.7 · 3.5% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 40

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Freeland Edge — 0.099 · 88.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.7% ← leak BRK 19.6% OFF 16.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R Edge

18.3% 17.8% 8.7% 17.1% A 81 +198

Neutral · 4

Jake Mccarthy L

6.2% 2.0% 13.6% 6.0% C+ 60 +850

Kyle Karros R Edge

6.7% 5.8% 17.6% 7.4% C 58 +500

Tj Rumfield L

6.9% 2.6% 6.8% 5.6% C 55 +525

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

7.8% 10.0% 4.8% 8.3% C 53 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

5.8% 6.0% 7.7% 6.2% D 49 +425

Edouard Julien L

6.0% 11.8% 3.6% 6.9% D 48 —

Troy Johnston L

3.0% 4.2% 0.0% 2.7% D 46 —

Tyler Freeman R Edge

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% D 40 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.7% usage) carries Lauer's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.5% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 14.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Shohei Ohtani L

20.7% 10.0% 14.3% 16.3% C+ 68 +220

Max Muncy S Edge

18.6% 14.3% 7.4% 14.6% C+ 67 +305

Freddie Freeman L

11.3% 11.1% 11.6% 11.3% C+ 64 +350

Mookie Betts R Edge

10.7% 4.1% 7.7% 8.7% C 59 +350

Andy Pages R Edge

8.4% 9.2% 6.9% 8.5% C 59 +280

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

11.2% 15.6% 9.1% 11.9% C 55 +280

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Kyle Tucker L

7.1% 4.3% 1.9% 5.4% D 48 +390

Alex Freeland S Edge

6.4% 10.3% 3.8% 6.8% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.5% usage) carries Freeland's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Mccarthy Karros Tovar Ohtani Muncy Freeman Betts Hernandez

Legend

attack side — vs Lauer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman +198 · 81

Freddie Freeman +350 · 64

Mookie Betts +350 · 59

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 3 mph slight_out 64°F open

+14

↑

7 mph · out

77°F

7:10p · peak

+13

↑

6 mph · out

73°F

8:10p

+11

↑

5 mph · out

72°F

9:10p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

71°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

70°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.21× 63°F, wind 3 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eric Lauer · LHP 2.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 81 A +198 WARM 1 0.303 91.5 14.0% 38.9%vs LHP 409 26.9% 33.3% 40.5% 30

2 Jake Mccarthy 60 C+ +850 WARM 11 0.204 85.4 8.4% 20.0%vs LHP 419 18.2% 0.0% 33.8% 45

3 Kyle Karros 58 C +500 WARM 17 0.157 89.6 9.5% 6.7%vs LHP 407 10.3% 27.3% 17.8% 24

4 Tj Rumfield 55 C +525 COOL 23 0.193 84.2 8.1% 5.9%vs LHP 406 9.1% 0.0% 15.4% 37

5 Ezequiel Tovar 53 C +475 COOL 28 0.141 87.4 9.0% 0.0%vs LHP 412 7.5% 18.2% 10.1% 33

6 Willi Castro 49 D +425 WARM 41 0.111 88.5 8.5% 6.7%vs LHP 425 6.1% 10.0% 8.8% 25

7 Edouard Julien 48 D — COOL 44 0.100 91.2 8.6% 9.4% 389 2.8% 0.0% 11.1% 13

8 Troy Johnston 46 D — WARM 49 0.143 89.5 5.1% 6.2%vs LHP 415 1.5% 0.0% 11.5% 23

9 Tyler Freeman 40 D +625 COOL 73 0.086 87.7 3.5% 22.2%vs LHP 369 2.7% 0.0% 11.0% 28

vs Kyle Freeland · LHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.75 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 68 C+ +220 COOL 4 0.236 93.6 13.1% 27.3%vs LHP 406 17.6% 15.4% 20.5% 35

2 Max Muncy 67 C+ +305 COOL 7 0.239 90.0 12.2% 30.0%vs LHP 409 18.8% 13.3% 23.2% 53

3 Freddie Freeman 64 C+ +350 · 8 0.207 90.8 11.2% 15.0%vs LHP 398 15.1% 23.1% 22.7% 36

4 Mookie Betts 59 C +350 WARM 14 0.192 90.7 9.5% 8.0%vs LHP 385 12.5% 23.1% 19.9% 43

5 Andy Pages 59 C +280 COOL 15 0.199 89.1 9.7% 16.0%vs LHP 389 14.9% 7.7% 16.5% 39

6 Teoscar Hernandez 55 C +280 WARM 22 0.182 90.3 10.8% 22.2%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 12

7 Kyle Tucker 48 D +390 WARM 45 0.134 89.0 7.8% 5.6%vs LHP 399 6.0% 10.0% 7.5% 23

8 Alex Freeland 44 D — COOL 55 0.099 88.5 7.8% 12.5%vs LHP 373 3.0% 0.0% 10.4% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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