TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ KC

Playable air · 1.06×

PHI @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph in 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

1:10p

-3 ↑

2:10p

-3 ↑

3:10p

-3 ↑

4:10p

-3 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -3 FIT

Best of game Brandon Marsh conv 31 · vs Cameron ⟷ Carter Jensen conv 22 · vs Sánchez → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 86

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Marsh +575 C ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Trea Turner +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 13

0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Carter Jensen +700 C ●●●○○

2 Jac Caglianone +700 C ●●○○○

3 Isaac Collins +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 20.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Brandon Marsh vs Cameron +575 0.200 · 89.7 · 9.1% 38.5% 24.2% F B O C 56

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Cameron +390 0.252 · 90.3 · 10.2% 23.1% 26.7% F B O C+ 62

· KC Carter Jensen vs Sánchez +700 0.194 · 91.0 · 9.0% 25.0% 18.7% F B O C 51

· KC Jac Caglianone vs Sánchez +700 0.200 · 94.0 · 11.7% 9.1% 22.3% F B O C 54

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Cameron +245 0.317 · 93.6 · 12.9% 8.3% 22.1% F B O C+ 69

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Cameron Edge +525 0.123 · 88.9 · 7.1% 23.1% 10.6% F B O D 43

· PHI Alec Bohm HOT vs Cameron Edge +575 0.147 · 90.1 · 6.5% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 44

· KC Isaac Collins vs Sánchez Edge +950 0.104 · 88.8 · 7.2% 10.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Cameron +750 0.144 · 89.1 · 7.8% 7.7% 9.3% F B O D 43

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Sánchez +950 0.170 · 90.4 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Sánchez Edge +575 0.144 · 88.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 38

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Cameron — 0.092 · 86.6 · 2.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 31

· KC Lane Thomas vs Sánchez Edge +750 0.120 · 87.7 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 36

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Cameron Edge +625 0.126 · — · 6.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.9% ← leak BRK 26.4% OFF 21.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kyle Schwarber L

19.8% 16.9% 28.0% 20.0% C+ 69 +245

Bryce Harper L

9.6% 18.1% 9.6% 12.4% C+ 62 +390

Brandon Marsh L

8.5% 16.4% 2.9% 10.0% C 56 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Alec Bohm R Edge

4.6% 4.8% 3.4% 4.5% D 44 +575

Trea Turner R Edge

8.0% 3.4% 0.0% 5.8% D 43 +525

Bryson Stott L

7.1% 5.6% 6.8% 6.6% D 43 +750

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

5.3% 4.8% 9.1% 5.4% D 36 +625

102

Justin Crawford L

1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.9% usage) carries Cameron's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.8% ← leak OFF 38.7% BRK 18.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L

16.9% 11.1% 16.9% 15.8% C 54 +700

Carter Jensen L

10.3% 9.1% 8.0% 9.3% C 51 +700

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Michael Massey L

8.7% 3.1% 5.6% 7.0% D 42 +950

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.6% 9.1% 6.5% 10.0% D 38 +575

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.6% 0.0% 8.7% 5.9% D 36 +950

Lane Thomas R Edge

6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% D 36 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.8% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Marsh Bohm Turner Caglianone Jensen

Legend

attack side — vs Cameron fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Brandon Marsh +575 · 56

Bryce Harper +390 · 62

Carter Jensen +700 · 51

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 5 mph in 69°F open

-3

↑

6 mph · in

79°F

1:10p · peak

-3

↑

6 mph · in

80°F

2:10p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

82°F

3:10p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

83°F

4:10p

-3

↑

6 mph · in

81°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 69°F, wind 5 mph NE (in) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 69 C+ +245 WARM 3 0.317 93.6 12.9% 42.3%vs LHP 404 25.6% 8.3% 22.1% 22

2 Bryce Harper 62 C+ +390 · 10 0.252 90.3 10.2% 11.1%vs LHP 400 21.2% 23.1% 26.7% 35

3 Brandon Marsh 56 C +575 WARM 20 0.200 89.7 9.1% 18.8%vs LHP 392 14.6% 38.5% 24.2% 36

4 Alec Bohm 44 D +575 HOT 54 0.147 90.1 6.5% 14.3%vs LHP 394 12.2% 16.7% 11.1% 34

5 Trea Turner 43 D +525 WARM 56 0.123 88.9 7.1% 3.6%vs LHP 393 11.9% 23.1% 10.6% 40

6 Bryson Stott 43 D +750 WARM 59 0.144 89.1 7.8% 11.1%vs LHP 393 8.8% 7.7% 9.3% 33

7 J.T. Realmuto 36 D +625 WARM 88 0.126 — 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 25

8 Justin Crawford 31 D — COOL 102 0.092 86.6 2.9% 4.9% 382 3.2% 0.0% 7.6% 33

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.59 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 54 C +700 WARM 25 0.200 94.0 11.7% 33.3%vs LHP 418 12.8% 9.1% 22.3% 26

2 Carter Jensen 51 C +700 WARM 33 0.194 91.0 9.0% 13.3%vs LHP 393 16.4% 25.0% 18.7% 31

3 Michael Massey 42 D +950 COOL 65 0.170 90.4 7.8% 16.7%vs LHP 398 7.3% 0.0% 10.2% 25

4 Salvador Perez 38 D +575 COOL 82 0.144 88.8 8.8% 15.4%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 23

5 Isaac Collins 36 D +950 · 91 0.104 88.8 7.2% 12.5%vs LHP 390 5.4% 10.0% 8.3% 21

6 Lane Thomas 36 D +750 WARM 92 0.120 87.7 5.9% 5.9%vs LHP 413 11.8% 0.0% 7.4% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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