TheHomeRuns.org — NYY @ TB

Neutral air · 1.04×

NYY @ TB

Tropicana Field · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Trent Grisham conv 25 · vs Jax ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 53 · vs Schlittler → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 98

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Trent Grisham +390 C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +320 B ●●●●○

3 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●●○○

FADE Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 86

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero +290 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins +500 D ●●●●○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 69.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ HOT vs Schlittler +290 0.267 · 93.4 · 10.5% 69.2% 35.8% F B O C+ 67

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Jax Edge +390 0.179 · 90.8 · 11.1% 33.3% 17.5% F B O C 53

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Jax Edge +320 0.298 · 91.7 · 12.3% 16.7% 29.7% F B O B 70

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs Jax — 0.238 · 86.8 · 11.2% 11.1% 27.3% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Schlittler Edge +500 0.137 · 88.4 · 5.7% 40.0% 14.6% F B O D 42

· TB Nick Fortes vs Schlittler — 0.086 · 86.1 · 3.9% 20.0% 9.8% F B O D 30

· TB Ben Williamson COOL vs Schlittler — 0.100 · 88.0 · 3.4% 16.7% 11.8% F B O D 32

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Schlittler Edge +475 0.173 · 90.7 · 8.8% 7.7% 11.1% F B O D 45

· TB Richie Palacios COOL vs Schlittler Edge +950 0.086 · 86.3 · 5.4% 10.0% 6.5% F B O D 31

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Jax Edge +575 0.151 · 90.6 · 10.8% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 49

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Jax Edge +500 0.172 · 89.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 48

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Schlittler +575 0.166 · 90.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 39

· NYY Austin Wells COOL vs Jax Edge +525 0.084 · 89.0 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 39

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Jax +950 0.133 · 83.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 36

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.061 · 84.1 · — 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 18

· TB Taylor Walls vs Schlittler Edge — 0.073 · 85.1 · 5.1% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.9% ← leak BRK 34.6% OFF 22.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

16.7% 9.9% 15.2% 14.3% B 70 +320

Neutral · 2

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.2% 6.2% 10.7% 12.0% C 59 —

Trent Grisham L Edge

12.5% 12.5% 6.7% 11.6% C 53 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

12.8% 5.4% 21.1% 11.9% D 49 +575

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.7% 13.8% 10.0% 7.0% D 48 +500

Austin Wells L Edge

8.6% 3.8% 0.0% 6.5% D 39 +525

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 36 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.9% usage) carries Jax's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 91.0% ← leak BRK 9.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.5% 12.5% 13.8% C+ 67 +290

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.8% 13.5% 9.6% D 45 +475

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.8% 0.0% 3.9% D 42 +500

Yandy Diaz R

5.4% 12.8% 7.5% D 39 +575

100

Ben Williamson R

2.2% 0.0% 1.3% D 32 —

103

Richie Palacios L Edge

4.8% 2.6% 4.1% D 31 +950

107

Nick Fortes R

3.5% 0.0% 2.3% D 30 —

110

Taylor Walls S Edge

4.7% 0.0% 3.3% D 28 —

121

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 18 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (91.0% usage) carries Schlittler's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Caminero Mullins Williamson Fortes

Legend

attack side — vs Jax fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +290 · 67

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.04× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.04× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 70 B +320 COOL 2 0.298 91.7 12.3% 34.5%vs RHP 389 25.0% 16.7% 29.7% 32

2 Paul Goldschmidt 59 C — · 13 0.238 86.8 11.2% 22.2%vs RHP 391 18.4% 11.1% 27.3% 27

3 Trent Grisham 53 C +390 WARM 27 0.179 90.8 11.1% 15.6%vs RHP 388 9.5% 33.3% 17.5% 4

4 Ryan Mcmahon 49 D +575 COOL 40 0.151 90.6 10.8% 23.5%vs RHP 380 50.0% 0.0% 16.2% 3

5 Cody Bellinger 48 D +500 COOL 43 0.172 89.0 8.7% 11.5%vs RHP 379 11.1% 0.0% 12.7% 30

6 Austin Wells 39 D +525 COOL 79 0.084 89.0 7.8% 10.7%vs RHP 377 7.0% 0.0% 9.6% 18

7 Jose Caballero 36 D +950 WARM 87 0.133 83.9 5.7% 14.8%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 25

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 67 C+ +290 HOT 6 0.267 93.4 10.5% 40.0%vs RHP 407 27.4% 69.2% 35.8% 39

2 Jonathan Aranda 45 D +475 COOL 52 0.173 90.7 8.8% 21.7%vs RHP 391 13.4% 7.7% 11.1% 36

3 Cedric Mullins 42 D +500 WARM 64 0.137 88.4 5.7% 20.8%vs RHP 393 13.2% 40.0% 14.6% 27

4 Yandy Diaz 39 D +575 WARM 74 0.166 90.9 7.7% 22.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 32

5 Ben Williamson 32 D — COOL 100 0.100 88.0 3.4% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.3% 16.7% 11.8% 14

6 Richie Palacios 31 D +950 COOL 103 0.086 86.3 5.4% 4.0%vs RHP 396 2.4% 10.0% 6.5% 29

7 Nick Fortes 30 D — WARM 107 0.086 86.1 3.9% 10.5%vs RHP 400 2.2% 20.0% 9.8% 17

8 Taylor Walls 28 D — WARM 110 0.073 85.1 5.1% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 29

9 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 121 0.061 84.1 — 4.2%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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