TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ SF

Suppressed air · 0.79×

TOR @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.79× Wind 8 mph slight_out 57°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:45p

+1 ↑

7:45p

+0 ↑

8:45p

+0 ↑

9:45p

+0 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +2

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 31 · vs Gausman ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 23 · vs Roupp → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Kevin Gausman RHP · TOR

leak 64

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +390 C ●●●●●

2 Heliot Ramos +525 D ●●●●○

3 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●●●○○

FADE Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 60

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +525 D ●●●●○

2 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●●○○○

3 Daulton Varsho +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: 12.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ vs Gausman Edge +390 0.216 · 92.0 · 10.0% 41.7% 19.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Gausman +525 0.185 · 92.2 · 11.5% 28.6% 18.9% F B O D 49

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Roupp +525 0.214 · 91.7 · 7.5% 25.0% 20.7% F B O D 45

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Gausman Edge +575 0.204 · 92.1 · 10.5% 25.0% 10.3% F B O D 46

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Roupp Edge +950 0.110 · 86.5 · 2.2% 16.7% 7.1% F B O D 25

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Gausman +500 0.200 · 88.4 · 8.9% 8.3% 13.8% F B O D 43

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Gausman +500 0.207 · 89.7 · 10.4% 9.1% 12.8% F B O D 46

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.120 · 85.2 · 4.4% 12.5% 6.1% F B O D 28

· TOR Daulton Varsho vs Roupp Edge +625 0.157 · 86.0 · 5.0% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 31

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Gausman Edge — 0.142 · 87.3 · 4.7% 8.3% 6.2% F B O D 30

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.175 · 88.7 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 33

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.137 · 86.4 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 24

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Roupp — 0.134 · 85.4 · 3.0% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 25

· SF Luis Arraez vs Gausman Edge — 0.134 · 87.3 · 2.3% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.7% ← leak BRK 26.5% OFF 19.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R

16.7% 8.5% 17.6% 14.4% D 45 +525

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

2.9% 21.1% 13.6% 8.2% D 33 —

105

Daulton Varsho L Edge

9.1% 1.6% 7.4% 6.6% D 31 +625

114

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.6% 3.3% 1.3% D 25 +950

115

Ernie Clement R

2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 2.3% D 25 —

116

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.3% 2.9% 6.5% 3.6% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.0% ← leak OFF 38.7% BRK 9.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

13.8% 10.9% 9.8% 12.2% C 52 +390

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Heliot Ramos R

14.3% 10.0% 16.3% 14.4% D 49 +525

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

15.1% 20.0% 0.0% 12.6% D 46 +575

Casey Schmitt R

9.2% 21.1% 17.8% 12.5% D 46 +500

Willy Adames R

8.3% 15.0% 8.8% 9.0% D 43 +500

108

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.8% 0.0% 2.3% 2.9% D 30 —

111

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.4% 0.0% 2.8% 2.1% D 28 —

118

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.6% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Gausman's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Devers Ramos Eldridge

Legend

attack side — vs Gausman fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rafael Devers +390 · 52

Heliot Ramos +525 · 49

Kazuma Okamoto +525 · 45

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.79× Wind 8 mph slight_out 57°F open

↑

14 mph · slight_out

64°F

6:45p · peak

↑

14 mph · slight_out

61°F

7:45p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

59°F

8:45p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

58°F

9:45p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

57°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.79× 57°F, wind 8 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 45 D +525 COOL 53 0.214 91.7 7.5% 31.8%vs RHP 400 18.6% 25.0% 20.7% 28

2 Brandon Valenzuela 33 D — COOL 98 0.175 88.7 5.5% 22.7%vs RHP 397 11.1% 0.0% 8.8% 8

3 Daulton Varsho 31 D +625 · 105 0.157 86.0 5.0% 14.3%vs RHP 386 8.3% 9.1% 7.1% 27

4 Nathan Lukes 25 D +950 WARM 114 0.110 86.5 2.2% 16.7%vs RHP 378 5.8% 16.7% 7.1% 35

5 Ernie Clement 25 D — COOL 115 0.134 85.4 3.0% 7.3%vs RHP 374 8.4% 0.0% 5.7% 35

6 Andres Gimenez 24 D — COOL 116 0.137 86.4 3.8% 12.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 25

vs Kevin Gausman · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 52 C +390 WARM 31 0.216 92.0 10.0% 24.5%vs RHP 403 17.3% 41.7% 19.6% 32

2 Heliot Ramos 49 D +525 WARM 42 0.185 92.2 11.5% 18.5%vs RHP 406 11.5% 28.6% 18.9% 20

3 Bryce Eldridge 46 D +575 WARM 50 0.204 92.1 10.5% 19.2%vs RHP 398 21.7% 25.0% 10.3% 24

4 Casey Schmitt 46 D +500 WARM 51 0.207 89.7 10.4% 20.3%vs RHP 394 16.7% 9.1% 12.8% 35

5 Willy Adames 43 D +500 COOL 61 0.200 88.4 8.9% 19.6%vs RHP 389 14.1% 8.3% 13.8% 18

6 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — COOL 108 0.142 87.3 4.7% 9.5%vs RHP 378 5.1% 8.3% 6.2% 36

7 Drew Gilbert 28 D — COOL 111 0.120 85.2 4.4% 13.0%vs RHP 393 4.7% 12.5% 6.1% 12

8 Luis Arraez 23 D — WARM 118 0.134 87.3 2.3% 3.8%vs RHP 367 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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