Susceptible Pitchers
The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, THR scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.
Historical Snapshot
Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.
refresh_11 - 2026-07-05T11:00:40-04:00
HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-07-05
| # | Pitcher | 7d Rank |
Tier
Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35 |
Score
Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 518 qualified pitchers. |
Score +/- Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view. | HRs | IP |
HR/IP
Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.132. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9. |
HR/FB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Gap | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Steven Cruz
KC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 | 27.3 | 0.293 | 33.3% | 6.04 | 6.04 | 3.61 | +2.43 | 4/7 | |
| 2 |
Luis Morales
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 12.0 | 0.417 | 31.2% | 11.32 | 11.32 | 7.98 | +3.34 | 4/17 | |
| 3 |
Jameson Taillon
CHC
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 22 100th | 71.0 | 0.310 | 23.2% | 6.49 | 6.49 | 4.55 | +1.94 | 16/115 | |
| 4 |
Ken Waldichuk
WSH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 33.3% | 8.39 | 8.39 | 5.16 | +3.23 | · | |
| 5 |
Luis Curvelo
TEX
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 10.7 | 0.467 | 26.3% | 8.76 | 8.76 | 5.45 | +3.31 | · | |
| 6 |
JP Sears
SD
🎯
|
+13 | ⚠️ High | +8.8 | 4 | 10.3 | 0.388 | 23.5% | 7.91 | 7.91 | 5.43 | +2.48 | 4/8 | |
| 7 |
Kodai Senga
NYM
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 11 87th | 35.0 | 0.314 | 28.2% | 6.98 | 6.98 | 4.63 | +2.35 | 9/79 | |
| 8 |
Brady Singer
CIN
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | -0.1 | 21 99th | 85.0 | 0.247 | 23.6% | 5.93 | 5.93 | 4.35 | +1.58 | 25/135 | |
| 9 |
Aaron Bummer
ATL
🎯
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 6 | 16.7 | 0.359 | 30.0% | 8.24 | 8.24 | 5.44 | +2.80 | · | |
| 10 |
Jeffrey Springs
ATH
🎯
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | -0.2 | 24 100th | 94.3 | 0.255 | 19.5% | 5.79 | 5.79 | 4.52 | +1.27 | 28/143 | |
| 11 |
Dean Kremer
BAL
|
-2 | ⚠️ High | -0.8 | 5 | 16.7 | 0.299 | 31.2% | 5.19 | 5.19 | 2.79 | +2.40 | 3/17 | |
| 12 |
Taijuan Walker
PHI
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 | 22.7 | 0.352 | 24.2% | 7.82 | 7.82 | 5.51 | +2.31 | 4/18 | |
| 13 |
Valente Bellozo
COL
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 5 | 13.7 | 0.365 | 27.8% | 8.62 | 8.62 | 5.93 | +2.69 | · | |
| 14 |
Ryan Weiss
HOU
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 | 26.0 | 0.308 | 27.6% | 7.15 | 7.15 | 4.89 | +2.26 | 2/18 | |
| 15 |
Zack Littell
WSH
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 22 100th | 79.0 | 0.278 | 18.3% | 6.56 | 6.56 | 5.30 | +1.26 | 20/120 | |
| 16 |
Max Scherzer
TOR
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 80th | 26.7 | 0.337 | 22.5% | 7.83 | 7.83 | 5.79 | +2.04 | 10/44 | |
| 17 |
Edward Cabrera
CHC
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 17 97th | 75.0 | 0.227 | 25.0% | 5.56 | 5.56 | 4.03 | +1.53 | 16/122 | |
| 18 | -1 | ⚠️ High | +0.1 | 20 99th | 82.0 | 0.244 | 20.8% | 6.50 | 6.50 | 5.16 | +1.34 | 15/109 | ||
| 19 |
Aaron Nola
PHI
|
-1 | ⚠️ High | -0.2 | 20 99th | 87.3 | 0.229 | 20.8% | 5.18 | 5.18 | 3.91 | +1.27 | 17/135 | |
| 20 |
Trey Gibson
BAL
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 7 | 32.7 | 0.214 | 29.2% | 6.48 | 6.48 | 4.85 | +1.63 | 8/43 | |
| 21 |
Roki Sasaki
LAD
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.2 | 17 97th | 76.7 | 0.222 | 21.5% | 5.78 | 5.78 | 4.51 | +1.27 | 12/110 | |
| 22 | EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 4 | 11.7 | 0.342 | 25.0% | 7.94 | 7.94 | 5.63 | +2.31 | · | ||
| 23 |
Justin Lawrence
PIT
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 8 | 31.7 | 0.252 | 27.6% | 7.00 | 7.00 | 5.14 | +1.86 | · | |
| 24 |
Cole Ragans
KC
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 10 84th | 39.3 | 0.254 | 23.3% | 5.67 | 5.67 | 4.07 | +1.60 | 11/71 | |
| 25 |
Tony Santillan
CIN
|
EVEN | ⚠️ High | +0.0 | 9 80th | 31.3 | 0.288 | 24.3% | 6.31 | 6.31 | 4.42 | +1.89 | · | |
| 26 |
Brandon Eisert
CWS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 23.7 | 0.253 | 25.0% | 4.67 | 4.67 | 2.96 | +1.71 | 4/23 | |
| 27 |
Zac Gallen
AZ
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.1 | 20 99th | 95.7 | 0.209 | 18.2% | 5.76 | 5.76 | 4.84 | +0.92 | 17/162 | |
| 28 |
Nathan Eovaldi
TEX
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.2 | 19 98th | 109.0 | 0.174 | 20.7% | 4.25 | 4.25 | 3.30 | +0.95 | 16/147 | |
| 29 |
Ryan Weathers
NYY
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.2 | 17 97th | 92.3 | 0.184 | 21.5% | 4.21 | 4.21 | 3.15 | +1.06 | 14/138 | |
| 30 |
Phil Maton
CHC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 6 | 28.3 | 0.212 | 30.0% | 5.87 | 5.87 | 4.22 | +1.65 | · | |
| 31 |
Andrew Kittredge
BAL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 21.0 | 0.190 | 33.3% | 4.63 | 4.63 | 3.04 | +1.59 | · | |
| 32 |
Miles Mikolas
WSH
|
+2 | 📊 Elevated | +0.4 | 18 98th | 84.0 | 0.214 | 18.9% | 5.42 | 5.42 | 4.40 | +1.02 | 6/69 | |
| 33 |
Bryan Abreu
HOU
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 7 | 29.3 | 0.239 | 26.9% | 6.84 | 6.84 | 5.11 | +1.73 | · | |
| 34 | -1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 17.3 | 0.289 | 25.0% | 7.49 | 7.49 | 5.53 | +1.96 | · | ||
| 35 |
Mitchell Parker
WSH
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 11 87th | 44.0 | 0.250 | 22.4% | 5.51 | 5.51 | 4.00 | +1.51 | · | |
| 36 |
Mike Burrows
HOU
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | -0.2 | 19 98th | 95.0 | 0.200 | 17.1% | 5.36 | 5.36 | 4.58 | +0.78 | 21/136 | |
| 37 |
Eric Lauer
TOR
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.2 | 17 97th | 69.3 | 0.245 | 15.9% | 6.19 | 6.19 | 5.41 | +0.78 | 14/95 | |
| 38 |
Shota Imanaga
CHC
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.2 | 20 99th | 102.0 | 0.196 | 16.1% | 4.65 | 4.65 | 4.00 | +0.65 | 25/171 | |
| 39 | EVEN | 📊 Elevated | -0.1 | 17 97th | 85.3 | 0.199 | 18.1% | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.13 | +0.87 | 15/129 | ||
| 40 |
Charlie Barnes
LAD
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 12.0 | 0.250 | 27.3% | 7.48 | 7.48 | 5.66 | +1.82 | · | |
| 41 |
Brandon Sproat
MIL
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 14 93th | 76.7 | 0.183 | 20.9% | 4.95 | 4.95 | 3.94 | +1.01 | 19/140 | |
| 42 |
Justin Topa
MIN
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 21.0 | 0.238 | 26.3% | 6.67 | 6.67 | 4.99 | +1.68 | · | |
| 43 |
Jonathan Pintaro
NYM
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 12.3 | 0.244 | 27.3% | 5.59 | 5.59 | 3.81 | +1.78 | · | |
| 44 |
David Sandlin
CWS
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 4 | 19.0 | 0.211 | 26.7% | 5.36 | 5.36 | 3.86 | +1.50 | 3/25 | |
| 45 |
Gavin Williams
CLE
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 17 97th | 109.3 | 0.156 | 20.5% | 3.91 | 3.91 | 3.07 | +0.84 | 14/164 | |
| 46 |
Chris Martin
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 3 | 11.0 | 0.273 | 25.0% | 6.15 | 6.15 | 4.31 | +1.84 | · | |
| 47 |
Connor Brogdon
CLE
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 5 | 16.7 | 0.299 | 21.7% | 5.66 | 5.66 | 3.92 | +1.74 | · | |
| 48 |
Griffin Jax
TB
|
+1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.1 | 11 87th | 60.0 | 0.183 | 22.9% | 4.65 | 4.65 | 3.51 | +1.14 | 10/98 | |
| 49 |
Emmet Sheehan
LAD
|
-1 | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 15 95th | 76.0 | 0.197 | 17.6% | 4.60 | 4.60 | 3.78 | +0.82 | 21/112 | |
| 50 |
Jalen Beeks
TEX
|
EVEN | 📊 Elevated | +0.0 | 7 | 28.3 | 0.247 | 23.3% | 5.76 | 5.76 | 4.20 | +1.56 | · |
How this works:
The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using
real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%),
and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool.
FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the THR scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date.
Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available.
Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (518 qualify in this view).
The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon
directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)
Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.
Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)