Susceptible Pitchers

The most HR-prone arms in baseball right now - a top-50 composite ranking using official season HR/IP, FanGraphs season stats, LongDong scored-pool results, and weekly report movement.

Date Top 50 pitchers · 7-day movement vs prior report

Historical Snapshot

Validated pre-game snapshot. This view was captured before first pitch.

refresh_11 - 2026-06-27T11:00:23-04:00

HR Susceptibility Rankings · 2026-06-27

50 pitchers · Top 10 flagged on slate · 502 qualified · trend compares to 7 days earlier

#	Pitcher	7d Rank	Tier ? Based on composite susceptibility score. 🔥 Extreme: 75+ ⚠️ High: 55–74 📊 Elevated: 35–54 📉 Moderate: <35	Score ? Composite 0–100 score: HR/FB% — 30% HR/IP — 25% Total HRs — 20% FIP-xFIP gap — 15% Pool HR rate — 10% Normalized across 502 qualified pitchers.	Score +/- ? Change in composite susceptibility score versus the same as-of report 7 days earlier. The LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date; validated snapshots preserve the full pre-game view.	HRs	IP	HR/IP ? Home runs allowed divided by innings pitched, derived from official season HR and IP columns. League avg: 0.13. Above .167 equals 1.5 HR/9. Above .222 equals 2.0 HR/9.	HR/FB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	Gap	Pool
1	Steven Cruz KC 🎯	+1	🔥 Extreme	80	+10.0	8 77th	23.0	0.348	38.1%	6.76	6.76	3.66	+3.10	4/7
2	Luis Morales ATH 🎯	-1	⚠️ High	70	-3.0	5	12.0	0.417	31.2%	11.32	11.32	7.98	+3.34	4/17
3	Jameson Taillon CHC 🎯	+1	⚠️ High	68	-1.7	22 100th	71.0	0.310	23.2%	6.49	6.49	4.55	+1.94	16/115
4	Dean Kremer BAL 🎯	-1	⚠️ High	67	-2.8	4	11.0	0.364	33.3%	5.51	5.51	2.49	+3.02	2/9
5	Ken Waldichuk WSH 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	65	+0.0	4	10.3	0.388	33.3%	8.39	8.39	5.16	+3.23	·
6	Luis Curvelo TEX 🎯	EVEN	⚠️ High	65	+0.0	5	10.7	0.467	26.3%	8.76	8.76	5.45	+3.31	·
7	Kodai Senga NYM 🎯	+3	⚠️ High	62	-1.4	9 83th	27.3	0.330	28.1%	7.58	7.58	5.13	+2.45	9/79
8	Aaron Bummer ATL 🎯	+6	⚠️ High	62	+0.0	6	16.7	0.359	30.0%	8.24	8.24	5.44	+2.80	·
9	David Sandlin CWS 🎯	-2	⚠️ High	61	-2.9	4	13.0	0.308	33.3%	6.61	6.61	4.05	+2.56	3/25
10	Jeffrey Springs ATH 🎯	-1	⚠️ High	61	-2.7	22 100th	89.3	0.246	19.5%	5.56	5.56	4.33	+1.23	28/135
11	Taijuan Walker PHI	-3	⚠️ High	61	-2.8	8 77th	22.7	0.352	24.2%	7.82	7.82	5.51	+2.31	4/18
12	Zack Littell WSH	-1	⚠️ High	61	-2.1	21 100th	74.0	0.284	18.4%	6.61	6.61	5.32	+1.29	18/111
13	Brady Singer CIN	-1	⚠️ High	60	-2.7	18 99th	75.7	0.238	22.8%	5.83	5.83	4.37	+1.46	21/117
14	Trevor Martin TB	+3	⚠️ High	60	+0.0	4	10.7	0.374	28.6%	8.57	8.57	5.75	+2.82	·
15	Jonathan Hernández LAD	+3	⚠️ High	60	+0.0	5	15.3	0.327	31.2%	7.73	7.73	5.11	+2.62	·
16	Edward Cabrera CHC	-1	⚠️ High	59	-1.4	17 98th	75.0	0.227	25.0%	5.56	5.56	4.03	+1.53	16/122
17	Ryan Weiss HOU	-1	⚠️ High	59	-1.4	8 77th	26.0	0.308	27.6%	7.15	7.15	4.89	+2.26	2/18
18	Max Scherzer TOR	-5	⚠️ High	59	-2.8	9 83th	26.7	0.337	22.5%	7.83	7.83	5.79	+2.04	10/44
19	Valente Bellozo COL	EVEN	⚠️ High	59	+0.0	5	13.7	0.365	27.8%	8.62	8.62	5.93	+2.69	·
20	Justin Lawrence PIT	+3	⚠️ High	55	+0.0	8 77th	30.0	0.267	28.6%	6.98	6.98	4.97	+2.01	·
21	Andrew Kittredge BAL	+3	⚠️ High	55	+0.0	4	18.0	0.222	36.4%	5.32	5.32	3.38	+1.94	·
22	Aaron Nola PHI	-2	📊 Elevated	55	-1.6	18 99th	83.0	0.217	19.8%	5.02	5.02	3.91	+1.11	17/128
23	Cole Ragans KC	-1	📊 Elevated	54	-1.9	10 87th	39.3	0.254	23.3%	5.67	5.67	4.07	+1.60	11/71
24	Mike Burrows HOU	-3	📊 Elevated	54	-2.2	19 99th	90.3	0.210	18.1%	5.44	5.44	4.52	+0.92	21/127
25	Tony Santillan CIN	+5	📊 Elevated	54	+0.0	9 83th	31.3	0.288	24.3%	6.31	6.31	4.42	+1.89	·
26	Shota Imanaga CHC	-1	📊 Elevated	53	-1.9	20 99th	96.0	0.208	16.8%	4.83	4.83	4.05	+0.78	24/154
27	Ryan Weathers NYY	-1	📊 Elevated	53	-1.6	17 98th	90.7	0.187	21.5%	4.26	4.26	3.19	+1.07	14/130
28	Merrill Kelly AZ	-1	📊 Elevated	52	-1.6	17 98th	76.0	0.224	18.7%	6.26	6.26	5.22	+1.04	10/93
29	Matthew Liberatore STL	EVEN	📊 Elevated	52	-1.6	17 98th	80.3	0.212	18.9%	5.15	5.15	4.15	+1.00	15/121
30	Eric Lauer TOR	-2	📊 Elevated	52	-2.2	16 97th	63.3	0.253	16.3%	6.29	6.29	5.42	+0.87	14/88
31	Nathan Eovaldi TEX	EVEN	📊 Elevated	51	-1.4	17 98th	97.0	0.175	21.0%	4.43	4.43	3.45	+0.98	14/138
32	Bryan Abreu HOU	+1	📊 Elevated	51	+0.0	6	25.7	0.233	28.6%	7.04	7.04	5.28	+1.76	·
33	Phil Maton CHC	+1	📊 Elevated	51	+0.0	6	28.3	0.212	30.0%	5.87	5.87	4.22	+1.65	·
34	Germán Márquez SD	-2	📊 Elevated	50	-1.4	9 83th	32.3	0.279	19.6%	6.49	6.49	5.09	+1.40	6/54
35	Miles Mikolas WSH	EVEN	📊 Elevated	50	-0.8	16 97th	77.0	0.208	18.6%	5.37	5.37	4.41	+0.96	4/61
36	Kyle Freeland COL	+7	📊 Elevated	49	-0.9	16 97th	75.3	0.212	17.0%	5.16	5.16	4.34	+0.82	12/119
37	Gavin Williams CLE	+2	📊 Elevated	49	-1.2	16 97th	100.0	0.160	20.5%	3.94	3.94	3.08	+0.86	13/147
38	Brandon Sproat MIL	-2	📊 Elevated	48	-1.9	13 93th	71.7	0.181	20.6%	5.00	5.00	4.02	+0.98	18/132
39	Zac Gallen AZ	+6	📊 Elevated	48	-1.2	16 97th	83.3	0.192	17.6%	5.48	5.48	4.69	+0.79	16/154
40	Justin Topa MIN	NEW	📊 Elevated	48	+0.0	5	21.0	0.238	26.3%	6.67	6.67	4.99	+1.68	·
41	Tanner Bibee CLE	+1	📊 Elevated	48	-1.7	18 99th	98.7	0.182	16.1%	4.76	4.76	4.16	+0.60	18/148
42	Connor Brogdon CLE	NEW	📊 Elevated	48	+0.0	5	16.7	0.299	21.7%	5.66	5.66	3.92	+1.74	·
43	Grant Holmes ATL	-3	📊 Elevated	48	-1.9	14 94th	78.0	0.179	19.2%	5.33	5.33	4.46	+0.87	19/127
44	Andrew Painter PHI	-6	📊 Elevated	48	-2.1	14 94th	64.3	0.218	16.5%	5.59	5.59	4.82	+0.77	19/114
45	Griffin Canning SD	+3	📊 Elevated	48	-1.4	8 77th	41.0	0.195	24.2%	5.56	5.56	4.28	+1.28	8/70
46	Ryne Nelson AZ	+1	📊 Elevated	48	-1.5	18 99th	88.3	0.204	14.8%	5.19	5.19	4.69	+0.50	14/120
47	Jalen Beeks TEX	NEW	📊 Elevated	48	+0.0	7	28.3	0.247	23.3%	5.76	5.76	4.20	+1.56	·
48	Jonathan Pintaro NYM	NEW	📊 Elevated	48	+0.0	3	12.3	0.244	27.3%	5.59	5.59	3.81	+1.78	·
49	Foster Griffin WSH	-5	📊 Elevated	48	-2.0	16 97th	96.0	0.167	18.0%	4.36	4.36	3.64	+0.72	16/108
50	Emmet Sheehan LAD	-4	📊 Elevated	48	-1.7	14 94th	71.0	0.197	17.1%	4.53	4.53	3.77	+0.76	20/105

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How this works: The susceptibility score is a composite ranking using real season stats from FanGraphs: HR/FB% (30%), official HR/IP (25%), total HRs allowed (20%), and FIP-xFIP gap (15%), plus a 10% boost for pitchers who give up HRs to batters in our scored pool. FanGraphs season columns come from the loaded season cache or a validated snapshot; the LongDong scored-pool component is filtered through the selected date. Historical reconstructed views are directional only unless a validated pre-game snapshot is available. Pitchers qualify with at least 2 starts or 10 IP (502 qualify in this view). The top 10 are flagged with a 🎯 icon directly on the main slate table — so you never miss a soft matchup.

Hover or tap any column header for a detailed explanation, or hover any cell for per-pitcher context including league percentiles.

Tiers: 🔥 Extreme (75+) — ⚠️ High (55-74) — 📊 Elevated (35-54) — 📉 Moderate (below 35)

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